Alexander McKeever
@akmckeever.bsky.social
New Yorker obsessed with Cape Breton (and Syria)
Author of This Week in Northern Syria newsletter, regular open sourced updates on northern Aleppo and SDF-controlled eastern Syria:
https://akmckeever.substack.com
Author of This Week in Northern Syria newsletter, regular open sourced updates on northern Aleppo and SDF-controlled eastern Syria:
https://akmckeever.substack.com
Pinned
What the HTS governance legacy in Idlib says about today
A not-quite review of Haenni and Drevon's Transformed by the People
akmckeever.substack.com
Some thoughts on continuities between al-Sharaa's rule in Idlib (2017-24) and in Damascus this past year, after reading the new Haenni/Drevon book
akmckeever.substack.com/p/what-the-h...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/what-the-h...
SANA reports that a withdrawal agreement has been reached for the SDF holed up in al-Aqtan prison NE of al-Raqqah since the 18th, with them being escorted to SDF-controlled Kobani
t.me/sana_gov/156...
t.me/sana_gov/156...
January 22, 2026 at 10:48 PM
SANA reports that a withdrawal agreement has been reached for the SDF holed up in al-Aqtan prison NE of al-Raqqah since the 18th, with them being escorted to SDF-controlled Kobani
t.me/sana_gov/156...
t.me/sana_gov/156...
Syrian Army actually wearing unit patches now
January 22, 2026 at 7:27 PM
Syrian Army actually wearing unit patches now
My recap of the past week's momentous developments, with the government's offensive on SDF-held Deir Hafir taking it all the way to al-Ya'rubiyah. Brittle US-facilitated agreements threaten to break down, bringing Syria further into dangerous ethnic warfare.
akmckeever.substack.com/p/this-week-...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/this-week-...
This Week in Northern Syria [3.2026]
January 14 - 20: Mass defection of Arabs from SDF ranks results in rapid advance of pro-government forces across eastern Syria
akmckeever.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 6:01 PM
My recap of the past week's momentous developments, with the government's offensive on SDF-held Deir Hafir taking it all the way to al-Ya'rubiyah. Brittle US-facilitated agreements threaten to break down, bringing Syria further into dangerous ethnic warfare.
akmckeever.substack.com/p/this-week-...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/this-week-...
Neither the Jan 18 ceasefire nor Jan 20 joint understanding on Hasakah specified where the immediate frozen lines were to be, with govt/pro-govt forces continuing to advance on Arab-populated Sarrin and Shuyoukh areas south of Kobani, and other SDF-held Arab areas in Hasakah
January 22, 2026 at 8:32 AM
Neither the Jan 18 ceasefire nor Jan 20 joint understanding on Hasakah specified where the immediate frozen lines were to be, with govt/pro-govt forces continuing to advance on Arab-populated Sarrin and Shuyoukh areas south of Kobani, and other SDF-held Arab areas in Hasakah
current newsletter writing rotation
January 21, 2026 at 9:00 PM
current newsletter writing rotation
Reposted by Alexander McKeever
Zeina Shahla for @aljumhuriya.bsky.social on the General Secretariat for Political Affairs' interventions in Syrian civic life: aljumhuriya.net/ar/2026/01/1...
aljumhuriya.net
January 21, 2026 at 9:31 AM
Zeina Shahla for @aljumhuriya.bsky.social on the General Secretariat for Political Affairs' interventions in Syrian civic life: aljumhuriya.net/ar/2026/01/1...
Nada Atallah for the The National on the Shaddadi ('Sini') prison break, with pro-army tribal fighters most likely being responsible for letting the IS detainees out. Only 120 fighters held in the facility in total, 30 still missing the rest in gov't custody.
www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...
www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...
January 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Nada Atallah for the The National on the Shaddadi ('Sini') prison break, with pro-army tribal fighters most likely being responsible for letting the IS detainees out. Only 120 fighters held in the facility in total, 30 still missing the rest in gov't custody.
www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...
www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...
Reposted by Alexander McKeever
A recap of the main on the ground developments since midday January 18th, including the situations around various IS fighter prisons and reported war crimes
akmckeever.substack.com/p/january-20...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/january-20...
January 20 update
Military developments since mid-day January 18
akmckeever.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 2:29 PM
A recap of the main on the ground developments since midday January 18th, including the situations around various IS fighter prisons and reported war crimes
akmckeever.substack.com/p/january-20...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/january-20...
Seeming like the Shammar Sanadid Forces have defected from the SDF to the govt, meaning the YPG has lost its earliest Arab ally (dating back to 2013)... also means DAANES loses a big chunk of Arab populated areas at the end of the M4 on Iraqi border (between Rmeilan and Ya'rubiyah)
January 20, 2026 at 4:06 PM
Seeming like the Shammar Sanadid Forces have defected from the SDF to the govt, meaning the YPG has lost its earliest Arab ally (dating back to 2013)... also means DAANES loses a big chunk of Arab populated areas at the end of the M4 on Iraqi border (between Rmeilan and Ya'rubiyah)
SMS advertisement I received an hour ago here in Syria selling Abd al-Basit al-Sarout ringtones with the line “from Raqqa to Qamishli the blood of heroism boils”
January 20, 2026 at 3:07 PM
SMS advertisement I received an hour ago here in Syria selling Abd al-Basit al-Sarout ringtones with the line “from Raqqa to Qamishli the blood of heroism boils”
A recap of the main on the ground developments since midday January 18th, including the situations around various IS fighter prisons and reported war crimes
akmckeever.substack.com/p/january-20...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/january-20...
January 20 update
Military developments since mid-day January 18
akmckeever.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 2:29 PM
A recap of the main on the ground developments since midday January 18th, including the situations around various IS fighter prisons and reported war crimes
akmckeever.substack.com/p/january-20...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/january-20...
January 19, 2026 at 2:35 PM
A fairly accurate map of ethnic distribution in Hasakah: yellow = Kurdish, green = Arab, magenta = Assyrian/Syriac. unmarked southern half of the province entirely Arab, sparsely populated apart from the Khabour valley.
Unclear how this shakes out
unihornbv.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapview...
Unclear how this shakes out
unihornbv.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapview...
January 19, 2026 at 1:08 PM
A fairly accurate map of ethnic distribution in Hasakah: yellow = Kurdish, green = Arab, magenta = Assyrian/Syriac. unmarked southern half of the province entirely Arab, sparsely populated apart from the Khabour valley.
Unclear how this shakes out
unihornbv.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapview...
Unclear how this shakes out
unihornbv.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapview...
Reposted by Alexander McKeever
My brief summary of the developments in eastern Aleppo and al-Raqqah from Jan 14 to today (c. an hour or so ago)
akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-cur...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-cur...
On the current military developments
Gov't takes all of west bank al-Raqqah, enters Deir ez-Zour following SDF withdrawal
akmckeever.substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 12:07 PM
My brief summary of the developments in eastern Aleppo and al-Raqqah from Jan 14 to today (c. an hour or so ago)
akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-cur...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-cur...
January 18, 2026 at 4:10 PM
I'm not sure shooting demonstrators is the best way to cope with massively overplaying your hand and gambling away your proto-state
January 18, 2026 at 2:13 PM
I'm not sure shooting demonstrators is the best way to cope with massively overplaying your hand and gambling away your proto-state
My brief summary of the developments in eastern Aleppo and al-Raqqah from Jan 14 to today (c. an hour or so ago)
akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-cur...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-cur...
On the current military developments
Gov't takes all of west bank al-Raqqah, enters Deir ez-Zour following SDF withdrawal
akmckeever.substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 12:07 PM
My brief summary of the developments in eastern Aleppo and al-Raqqah from Jan 14 to today (c. an hour or so ago)
akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-cur...
akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-cur...
Heard from someone near in Iraqi Kurdistan near the Semalka crossing about an hour ago that a long convoy of trucks is carrying US equipment out of Syria, with ”at least 100” empty trailers entering
January 18, 2026 at 8:55 AM
Heard from someone near in Iraqi Kurdistan near the Semalka crossing about an hour ago that a long convoy of trucks is carrying US equipment out of Syria, with ”at least 100” empty trailers entering
Much still remains to be seen but the SDF's entire to approach to many Arab communities - cooption of certain tribes, clans or individuals within tribes - was a built on quicksand. Loyalty based on disempowered personal gain not able to withstand the symbolic legitimacy of the new regime.
January 18, 2026 at 8:27 AM
Much still remains to be seen but the SDF's entire to approach to many Arab communities - cooption of certain tribes, clans or individuals within tribes - was a built on quicksand. Loyalty based on disempowered personal gain not able to withstand the symbolic legitimacy of the new regime.
Reposted by Alexander McKeever
Reimposing Caesar sanctions would amount to collective punishment of Syrians; Caesar sanctions previously – pre-December 2024 – also amounted to collective punishment of Syrians. Both bad, should not do.
January 18, 2026 at 8:09 AM
Reimposing Caesar sanctions would amount to collective punishment of Syrians; Caesar sanctions previously – pre-December 2024 – also amounted to collective punishment of Syrians. Both bad, should not do.
SDF is in the process of losing all of Deir ez-Zour, seemingly withdrawing from large portions (if not all) of the river bank in the face of large tribal insurgency, with reports now of the Syrian army crossing the river to fill the vacuum. reported number of key mil/pol defections in DeZ and Raqqa
January 18, 2026 at 5:44 AM
SDF is in the process of losing all of Deir ez-Zour, seemingly withdrawing from large portions (if not all) of the river bank in the face of large tribal insurgency, with reports now of the Syrian army crossing the river to fill the vacuum. reported number of key mil/pol defections in DeZ and Raqqa
Crude overview of situation this afternoon with clashes reported around the al-Thawrah oil field (around the point of the lower arrow) and on the Ma'dan front
January 17, 2026 at 1:50 PM
Crude overview of situation this afternoon with clashes reported around the al-Thawrah oil field (around the point of the lower arrow) and on the Ma'dan front
SDF fully withdrew from Deir Hafir and Maskanah, Govt forces entered. Clashes broke out btw Maskanah and Tabqa which SDF didn’t announce a withdrawal from despite reports that that was US position. Govt now attempting to clear all of right bank Raqqa by force.
sana.sy/governorates...
sana.sy/governorates...
هيئة العمليات تنشر خرائط مواقع في الرقة والطبقة وتحذر الأهالي للابتعاد عنها
نشرت هيئة العمليات في الجيش العربي السوري عدداً من الخرائط لمواقع في الرقة والطبقة وحذرت الأهالي بضرورة الابتعاد عنها.
sana.sy
January 17, 2026 at 1:26 PM
SDF fully withdrew from Deir Hafir and Maskanah, Govt forces entered. Clashes broke out btw Maskanah and Tabqa which SDF didn’t announce a withdrawal from despite reports that that was US position. Govt now attempting to clear all of right bank Raqqa by force.
sana.sy/governorates...
sana.sy/governorates...
I have not seen any mention of General Council for al-Sheikh Maqsoud and al-Ashrafiyah co-chairs Hevin Suleiman and Nuri Sheikho since the 8th, last seen in the background of the 9th withdrawal rejection announcement
January 16, 2026 at 8:06 AM
I have not seen any mention of General Council for al-Sheikh Maqsoud and al-Ashrafiyah co-chairs Hevin Suleiman and Nuri Sheikho since the 8th, last seen in the background of the 9th withdrawal rejection announcement