Ben Sahlmüller
@bensahlmueller.bsky.social
Mathematician obsessed with social organization and change.
Speaks bullshit but prefers not to.
Fediverse: @b3n@g0v.social
Speaks bullshit but prefers not to.
Fediverse: @b3n@g0v.social
Reposted by Ben Sahlmüller
This Yglesias piece in the NYT is horrifically bad. Almost every "fact" it cites is provably false. At best it is cocktail party banter from a pundit who knows nothing of energy. At worst, it was cut/paste from oil industry talking points. So, a rebuttal: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/o...
Opinion | Obama Supported It. The Left in Canada and Norway Does. Why Don’t Democrats?
www.nytimes.com
December 20, 2025 at 2:57 PM
This Yglesias piece in the NYT is horrifically bad. Almost every "fact" it cites is provably false. At best it is cocktail party banter from a pundit who knows nothing of energy. At worst, it was cut/paste from oil industry talking points. So, a rebuttal: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/o...
Apropos of nothing, the cost of the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, the world‘s largest government headquarters, was 368 million Euro (inflation adjusted).
The main building has nine floors with for example a large banquet hall on the fifth. There are 300 offices and 13 winter gardens in the wings.
The main building has nine floors with for example a large banquet hall on the fifth. There are 300 offices and 13 winter gardens in the wings.
October 23, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Apropos of nothing, the cost of the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, the world‘s largest government headquarters, was 368 million Euro (inflation adjusted).
The main building has nine floors with for example a large banquet hall on the fifth. There are 300 offices and 13 winter gardens in the wings.
The main building has nine floors with for example a large banquet hall on the fifth. There are 300 offices and 13 winter gardens in the wings.
I really liked the UN speech by Finland‘s President Stubb. It’s a fascinating genre I had mostly forgotten about. The speechwriting is impressive, clearly setting it‘s core concepts, using a simple structure (intro, two parts with three sub-points each).
m.youtube.com/watch?v=ECaq...
m.youtube.com/watch?v=ECaq...
Finland’s President Delivers Most Inspiring, Powerful UN Speech Yet on Multipolar World Order | AC1G
YouTube video by DRM News
m.youtube.com
September 25, 2025 at 1:31 PM
I really liked the UN speech by Finland‘s President Stubb. It’s a fascinating genre I had mostly forgotten about. The speechwriting is impressive, clearly setting it‘s core concepts, using a simple structure (intro, two parts with three sub-points each).
m.youtube.com/watch?v=ECaq...
m.youtube.com/watch?v=ECaq...
Reposted by Ben Sahlmüller
Raise weirdness till it’s fun
Lower standards till it’s done
Lower standards till it’s done
July 20, 2025 at 5:53 AM
Raise weirdness till it’s fun
Lower standards till it’s done
Lower standards till it’s done
Whenever I read about the lopsided economics of AI, I dread what will happen once the honeymoon will have ended and companies need to make money again. I hope efficiency will be at a level by then that the 20€/month price bracket will work out without brutal enshittification or privacy nightmares.
July 11, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Whenever I read about the lopsided economics of AI, I dread what will happen once the honeymoon will have ended and companies need to make money again. I hope efficiency will be at a level by then that the 20€/month price bracket will work out without brutal enshittification or privacy nightmares.
One of those "back when I was a kid" musings: It's quite remarkable how much teenagers these days are marketed to. When I was that age in the 90s, the only places you saw any ads made for you was when buying one of those slightly cringe (print!) magazines or watching TV.
May 5, 2025 at 9:52 AM
One of those "back when I was a kid" musings: It's quite remarkable how much teenagers these days are marketed to. When I was that age in the 90s, the only places you saw any ads made for you was when buying one of those slightly cringe (print!) magazines or watching TV.
That might be the costliest episode of hyperfocus in human history.
I’m gonna lose it man. He’s like a drug addict but for tariffs. Can you go ONE DAY without doing more???
Trump administration reportedly to increase duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 34.45% from 14.4%.-Bloomberg.
April 9, 2025 at 1:34 PM
That might be the costliest episode of hyperfocus in human history.
Sure we have a crisis but also: these are the fun days where people are still throwing shit at the wall to figure out what The Narrative will be.
April 8, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Sure we have a crisis but also: these are the fun days where people are still throwing shit at the wall to figure out what The Narrative will be.
Living in Taipei I have spent hundreds of hours trying to understand China-US-Taiwan relationships. It‘s a small price to pay as others have dedicated their lives to this. How utterly reckless and bizarre to not give any of this even a minute of thought.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Inside President Trump’s whirlwind decision to upend global trade
Why did Trump impose tariffs? Inside the advice that shaped his decision.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 5, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Living in Taipei I have spent hundreds of hours trying to understand China-US-Taiwan relationships. It‘s a small price to pay as others have dedicated their lives to this. How utterly reckless and bizarre to not give any of this even a minute of thought.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Ben Sahlmüller
1. @alisongopnik.bsky.social, Cosma Shalizi, James Evans and myself have a new piece in Science on "AI" Large Models, pushing back against much of the collective wisdom about what they can and can't do. Official below, unpaywalled at henryfarrell.net/large-ai-mod... . So why this now?
Large AI models are cultural and social technologies
Implications draw on the history of transformative information systems from the past
www.science.org
March 14, 2025 at 12:57 PM
1. @alisongopnik.bsky.social, Cosma Shalizi, James Evans and myself have a new piece in Science on "AI" Large Models, pushing back against much of the collective wisdom about what they can and can't do. Official below, unpaywalled at henryfarrell.net/large-ai-mod... . So why this now?
Pump and dump, only it‘s the whole economy.
🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Trump may roll back Canada and Mexico tariffs tomorrow.
March 5, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Pump and dump, only it‘s the whole economy.
Reposted by Ben Sahlmüller
1/As Trump and Vance remarks make clear, Europe has to wake up and act to protect itself in a much more dangerous world. It cannot depend on US guarantees. But it is also in a much stronger position than it thinks.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Munich Security Conference Live: Vance says NATO must do more 'burden-sharing' in Europe
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is due to meet with the U.S. vice president before the annual international gathering of political leaders and diplomats in the German city.
www.reuters.com
February 14, 2025 at 1:52 PM
1/As Trump and Vance remarks make clear, Europe has to wake up and act to protect itself in a much more dangerous world. It cannot depend on US guarantees. But it is also in a much stronger position than it thinks.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Reposted by Ben Sahlmüller
Ok folks, deep breaths.
There is very real reason to worry about the dynamic emerging between Washington and Moscow when it comes to Ukraine. But there is also very real reason to believe that Ukraine and Europe can create a better outcome.
(A rather long 🧵, obviously)
/1
There is very real reason to worry about the dynamic emerging between Washington and Moscow when it comes to Ukraine. But there is also very real reason to believe that Ukraine and Europe can create a better outcome.
(A rather long 🧵, obviously)
/1
February 13, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Ok folks, deep breaths.
There is very real reason to worry about the dynamic emerging between Washington and Moscow when it comes to Ukraine. But there is also very real reason to believe that Ukraine and Europe can create a better outcome.
(A rather long 🧵, obviously)
/1
There is very real reason to worry about the dynamic emerging between Washington and Moscow when it comes to Ukraine. But there is also very real reason to believe that Ukraine and Europe can create a better outcome.
(A rather long 🧵, obviously)
/1
Reposted by Ben Sahlmüller
It feels weird to see this happen with someone who I knew as a messy, brilliant, flawed, kind and utterly wonderful person. I so wish he was here today, to help build the connections we need. But if we only have his memory, let it be a blessing in the most practical ways possible.
February 8, 2025 at 10:42 PM
It feels weird to see this happen with someone who I knew as a messy, brilliant, flawed, kind and utterly wonderful person. I so wish he was here today, to help build the connections we need. But if we only have his memory, let it be a blessing in the most practical ways possible.
Reposted by Ben Sahlmüller
It’s really bad but the upside might be that there are many tactical errors that could have some immense strategical potential, especially when addressing the fault lines in Trumps coalition. But for that it’s important to focus on the damage done there, i.e., government services and christian ngos.
February 6, 2025 at 8:12 AM
It’s really bad but the upside might be that there are many tactical errors that could have some immense strategical potential, especially when addressing the fault lines in Trumps coalition. But for that it’s important to focus on the damage done there, i.e., government services and christian ngos.
Is there a future timeline in which Maga watches Musk destroying the administrative state only to put him into prison for doing it? He‘s probably broken hundreds of laws, data security, faking documents etc? Why is he taking that risk?
February 3, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Is there a future timeline in which Maga watches Musk destroying the administrative state only to put him into prison for doing it? He‘s probably broken hundreds of laws, data security, faking documents etc? Why is he taking that risk?
Did someone check in on the state capacity libertarians lately? There’s probably quite some cognitive dissonance to be wrangled with…
January 29, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Did someone check in on the state capacity libertarians lately? There’s probably quite some cognitive dissonance to be wrangled with…
It’s kind of funny how all the companies trying to convince humans that their creativity isn’t worth anything are now trying to buy the app that’s all about people trying to be creative for a whole 15s for a trillion dollars.
January 29, 2025 at 5:56 AM
It’s kind of funny how all the companies trying to convince humans that their creativity isn’t worth anything are now trying to buy the app that’s all about people trying to be creative for a whole 15s for a trillion dollars.
Jevon’s Paradox, sure. But wasn’t the problem yesterday to make people use AI despite it being essentially free for them already?
January 29, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Jevon’s Paradox, sure. But wasn’t the problem yesterday to make people use AI despite it being essentially free for them already?
As the US admin tries to cancel all federal expenses to maybe reintroduce parts they like while using LLMs to draft EOs, they look like a software company throwing away all the “ugly” code to let AI rewrite it from scratch.
Curious how that will go.
Curious how that will go.
January 29, 2025 at 5:04 AM
As the US admin tries to cancel all federal expenses to maybe reintroduce parts they like while using LLMs to draft EOs, they look like a software company throwing away all the “ugly” code to let AI rewrite it from scratch.
Curious how that will go.
Curious how that will go.
People who have spent many years to build high resolution models of how certain parts of the world work struggle to understand how simple the mental models of others are.
Strong meritocratic ideal in those circles make it even harder to grasp how simple the models of those with more power can be.
Strong meritocratic ideal in those circles make it even harder to grasp how simple the models of those with more power can be.
January 26, 2025 at 1:54 PM
People who have spent many years to build high resolution models of how certain parts of the world work struggle to understand how simple the mental models of others are.
Strong meritocratic ideal in those circles make it even harder to grasp how simple the models of those with more power can be.
Strong meritocratic ideal in those circles make it even harder to grasp how simple the models of those with more power can be.
It’s kind of fascinating that the idea of “German guilt” seems to have struck a cord with… a certain milieu. It’s such an emotional, personal framing that has little to do with the importance of general enlightenment principles I took away from school from my WW2 history classes.
January 26, 2025 at 11:54 AM
It’s kind of fascinating that the idea of “German guilt” seems to have struck a cord with… a certain milieu. It’s such an emotional, personal framing that has little to do with the importance of general enlightenment principles I took away from school from my WW2 history classes.
Reposted by Ben Sahlmüller
What Merkel does not say about China in her new autobiography is telling. No mention of Xinjiang, Hong Kong & Huawei nor a meaningful discussion about China-Russia or German dependencies. See my piece for @thewirechina.bsky.social
www.thewirechina.com/2024/12/11/a...
www.thewirechina.com/2024/12/11/a...
Angela Merkel’s Blind Spot on China - The Wire China
In her new memoir, Angela Merkel glosses over many inconvenient truths about the consequences of her approach to China.
www.thewirechina.com
December 11, 2024 at 4:26 PM
What Merkel does not say about China in her new autobiography is telling. No mention of Xinjiang, Hong Kong & Huawei nor a meaningful discussion about China-Russia or German dependencies. See my piece for @thewirechina.bsky.social
www.thewirechina.com/2024/12/11/a...
www.thewirechina.com/2024/12/11/a...