Brian Fremeau
@bcfremeau.bsky.social
College football possession efficiency, FEI ratings, and data visualization enthusiast. Post an interesting chart, I'm probably going to like it. Post a college football dataviz, hello new best friend.
https://www.bcftoys.com
https://www.bcftoys.com
Pinned
Brian Fremeau
@bcfremeau.bsky.social
· Jul 31
We’re back and (hopefully) better than ever. Let me know if anything on the relaunched site is wonky or anything, and let’s get the 2025 college football data season rolling: bcftoys.com
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 11 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.
November 11, 2025 at 1:30 PM
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 11 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.
Reposted by Brian Fremeau
Does it seem like there are more close games this year? It's because there are!
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
November 10, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Does it seem like there are more close games this year? It's because there are!
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.
TWELVE
There were 12 total possessions in Saturday's Army-Temple game, six for each team, fewer than in any FBS game since at least 2007. (Five games since 2007 had featured 13 total game possessions: bcftoys.com/possessions).
Game Possessions — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 10, 2025 at 9:31 PM
TWELVE
There were 12 total possessions in Saturday's Army-Temple game, six for each team, fewer than in any FBS game since at least 2007. (Five games since 2007 had featured 13 total game possessions: bcftoys.com/possessions).
Game Possessions — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:30 PM
There were 12 total possessions in Saturday's Army-Temple game, six for each team, fewer than in any FBS game since at least 2007. (Five games since 2007 had featured 13 total game possessions: bcftoys.com/possessions).
Clocked in for college football game day
November 8, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Clocked in for college football game day
LOVE this awesome and insightful thread on exactly how ESPN's college football FPI Strength of Record ratings are calculated. #datatransparency4ever
There seems to be some interest in how SOR is calculated, so I will do a quick thread.
If you aren't familiar with SOR (Strength of Record), it's defined at the bottom of the CFB FPI Resume page
t.co/3JZenVc4nt
If you aren't familiar with SOR (Strength of Record), it's defined at the bottom of the CFB FPI Resume page
t.co/3JZenVc4nt
November 6, 2025 at 8:10 PM
LOVE this awesome and insightful thread on exactly how ESPN's college football FPI Strength of Record ratings are calculated. #datatransparency4ever
One thing the CFP selection committee is consistent about, despite how they publicly frame it, is that they value "most accomplished" (i.e. strength of record ratings) over "best" (i.e. power ratings) every time.
bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
2025 CFP Profiles — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:49 PM
One thing the CFP selection committee is consistent about, despite how they publicly frame it, is that they value "most accomplished" (i.e. strength of record ratings) over "best" (i.e. power ratings) every time.
bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
bcftoys.com/2025-cfp
"Why does FEI have Team X rated above Team Y?" Game ratings are probably the best way to answer that question, and here's one way to visualize that data.
November 4, 2025 at 7:59 PM
"Why does FEI have Team X rated above Team Y?" Game ratings are probably the best way to answer that question, and here's one way to visualize that data.
90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opponent-adjusted possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 10:
6x - Indiana, Ohio St
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah
4x - Miami, ND, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr
6x - Indiana, Ohio St
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah
4x - Miami, ND, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr
2025 Game Ratings — BCF Toys
bcftoys.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:48 PM
90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opponent-adjusted possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 10:
6x - Indiana, Ohio St
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah
4x - Miami, ND, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr
6x - Indiana, Ohio St
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah
4x - Miami, ND, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr
Toughest remaining regular season schedule *among current 0- 1- and 2- loss teams* in terms of expected losses a top 20-30 FBS team would have against it, per FEI:
2.2 Missouri
2.1 Iowa
2.0 Oregon
1.9 BYU
1.8 Texas
1.8 USC
1.8 Oklahoma
1.7 Pittsburgh
1.7 TCU
1.6 Navy
2.2 Missouri
2.1 Iowa
2.0 Oregon
1.9 BYU
1.8 Texas
1.8 USC
1.8 Oklahoma
1.7 Pittsburgh
1.7 TCU
1.6 Navy
November 4, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Toughest remaining regular season schedule *among current 0- 1- and 2- loss teams* in terms of expected losses a top 20-30 FBS team would have against it, per FEI:
2.2 Missouri
2.1 Iowa
2.0 Oregon
1.9 BYU
1.8 Texas
1.8 USC
1.8 Oklahoma
1.7 Pittsburgh
1.7 TCU
1.6 Navy
2.2 Missouri
2.1 Iowa
2.0 Oregon
1.9 BYU
1.8 Texas
1.8 USC
1.8 Oklahoma
1.7 Pittsburgh
1.7 TCU
1.6 Navy
Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 10, per FEI:
+5.6 Texas A&M
+5.0 Indiana
+4.9 Ole Miss
+4.9 Ohio State
+4.8 Alabama
+4.4 Georgia
+4.2 BYU
+3.5 Oklahoma
+3.4 Texas
+3.4 Notre Dame
+5.6 Texas A&M
+5.0 Indiana
+4.9 Ole Miss
+4.9 Ohio State
+4.8 Alabama
+4.4 Georgia
+4.2 BYU
+3.5 Oklahoma
+3.4 Texas
+3.4 Notre Dame
November 4, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 10, per FEI:
+5.6 Texas A&M
+5.0 Indiana
+4.9 Ole Miss
+4.9 Ohio State
+4.8 Alabama
+4.4 Georgia
+4.2 BYU
+3.5 Oklahoma
+3.4 Texas
+3.4 Notre Dame
+5.6 Texas A&M
+5.0 Indiana
+4.9 Ole Miss
+4.9 Ohio State
+4.8 Alabama
+4.4 Georgia
+4.2 BYU
+3.5 Oklahoma
+3.4 Texas
+3.4 Notre Dame
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 10 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 18% weight for teams that have played seven FBS opponents, 11% if they have played eight, 5% if they have played nine.
Preseason projections carry 18% weight for teams that have played seven FBS opponents, 11% if they have played eight, 5% if they have played nine.
November 4, 2025 at 12:27 PM
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 10 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 18% weight for teams that have played seven FBS opponents, 11% if they have played eight, 5% if they have played nine.
Preseason projections carry 18% weight for teams that have played seven FBS opponents, 11% if they have played eight, 5% if they have played nine.
FEI and FEI-based Strength of Record ratings through Week 10, visualized. Scrutinize what is being measured and how it's calculated with every metric, and discuss and debate the merits of teams through multiple lenses!
November 4, 2025 at 2:58 AM
FEI and FEI-based Strength of Record ratings through Week 10, visualized. Scrutinize what is being measured and how it's calculated with every metric, and discuss and debate the merits of teams through multiple lenses!
Reposted by Brian Fremeau
This is a fun chart!
The green is the main bsky load balancer traffic throughput from Saturday night, and the purple is how much traffic there was 7 days before (the previous Saturday)
The spike is due to the world series - pretty incredible! ⚾
The green is the main bsky load balancer traffic throughput from Saturday night, and the purple is how much traffic there was 7 days before (the previous Saturday)
The spike is due to the world series - pretty incredible! ⚾
November 3, 2025 at 6:05 PM
This is a fun chart!
The green is the main bsky load balancer traffic throughput from Saturday night, and the purple is how much traffic there was 7 days before (the previous Saturday)
The spike is due to the world series - pretty incredible! ⚾
The green is the main bsky load balancer traffic throughput from Saturday night, and the purple is how much traffic there was 7 days before (the previous Saturday)
The spike is due to the world series - pretty incredible! ⚾
Reposted by Brian Fremeau
With the first committee rankings of the year set to be released Tuesday night, here's how the BCS might've viewed this college football season so far:
November 3, 2025 at 5:33 PM
With the first committee rankings of the year set to be released Tuesday night, here's how the BCS might've viewed this college football season so far:
Every overtime football game broadcast explains the scoring and possession system we're about to see. Why don't we also do this 60 minutes earlier?
November 1, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Every overtime football game broadcast explains the scoring and possession system we're about to see. Why don't we also do this 60 minutes earlier?
Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 9, per FEI:
+5.5 Texas A&M
+4.8 Alabama
+4.3 Ole Miss
+4.2 Indiana
+4.1 BYU
+4.0 Ohio State
+3.7 Georgia
+3.6 Georgia Tech
+3.3 Miami
+3.3 Notre Dame
+5.5 Texas A&M
+4.8 Alabama
+4.3 Ole Miss
+4.2 Indiana
+4.1 BYU
+4.0 Ohio State
+3.7 Georgia
+3.6 Georgia Tech
+3.3 Miami
+3.3 Notre Dame
October 29, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 9, per FEI:
+5.5 Texas A&M
+4.8 Alabama
+4.3 Ole Miss
+4.2 Indiana
+4.1 BYU
+4.0 Ohio State
+3.7 Georgia
+3.6 Georgia Tech
+3.3 Miami
+3.3 Notre Dame
+5.5 Texas A&M
+4.8 Alabama
+4.3 Ole Miss
+4.2 Indiana
+4.1 BYU
+4.0 Ohio State
+3.7 Georgia
+3.6 Georgia Tech
+3.3 Miami
+3.3 Notre Dame
Strength of record can mean different things depending on how it’s measured!
Ratings are more nuanced than rankings! X > Y is not as important as what X and Y actually represent.
Power ratings can be useful representations of what should happen, not what will, or even did!
Ratings are more nuanced than rankings! X > Y is not as important as what X and Y actually represent.
Power ratings can be useful representations of what should happen, not what will, or even did!
Here's a set of charts featuring the kind of data I'd like to wrestle with if I were a CFP selection committee member, representing "best" and "most accomplished" team ratings to date. (This one features FEI data, but similar outputs of other trusted metrics are great too).
October 29, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Strength of record can mean different things depending on how it’s measured!
Ratings are more nuanced than rankings! X > Y is not as important as what X and Y actually represent.
Power ratings can be useful representations of what should happen, not what will, or even did!
Ratings are more nuanced than rankings! X > Y is not as important as what X and Y actually represent.
Power ratings can be useful representations of what should happen, not what will, or even did!
Here's a set of charts featuring the kind of data I'd like to wrestle with if I were a CFP selection committee member, representing "best" and "most accomplished" team ratings to date. (This one features FEI data, but similar outputs of other trusted metrics are great too).
October 29, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Here's a set of charts featuring the kind of data I'd like to wrestle with if I were a CFP selection committee member, representing "best" and "most accomplished" team ratings to date. (This one features FEI data, but similar outputs of other trusted metrics are great too).
College football *feels* flatter than ever, but the #fancystats are measuring some separation from the pack for Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon.
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
October 28, 2025 at 2:22 PM
College football *feels* flatter than ever, but the #fancystats are measuring some separation from the pack for Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon.
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
F+ Ratings (combining FEI and SP+) updated through Week 9 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
October 28, 2025 at 2:14 PM
F+ Ratings (combining FEI and SP+) updated through Week 9 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fplus
Best opponent played so far by each of the remaining undefeated teams (per FEI ranking):
Indiana (#3 Oregon)
Texas A&M (#5 Notre Dame)
BYU (#7 Utah)
Ohio State (#17 Texas)
Georgia Tech (#41 Clemson)
Navy (#88 Temple)
Indiana (#3 Oregon)
Texas A&M (#5 Notre Dame)
BYU (#7 Utah)
Ohio State (#17 Texas)
Georgia Tech (#41 Clemson)
Navy (#88 Temple)
October 28, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Best opponent played so far by each of the remaining undefeated teams (per FEI ranking):
Indiana (#3 Oregon)
Texas A&M (#5 Notre Dame)
BYU (#7 Utah)
Ohio State (#17 Texas)
Georgia Tech (#41 Clemson)
Navy (#88 Temple)
Indiana (#3 Oregon)
Texas A&M (#5 Notre Dame)
BYU (#7 Utah)
Ohio State (#17 Texas)
Georgia Tech (#41 Clemson)
Navy (#88 Temple)
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 9 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 25% weight for teams that have played six FBS opponents, 18% if they have played seven, 11% if they have played eight.
Preseason projections carry 25% weight for teams that have played six FBS opponents, 18% if they have played seven, 11% if they have played eight.
October 28, 2025 at 11:31 AM
FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 9 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 25% weight for teams that have played six FBS opponents, 18% if they have played seven, 11% if they have played eight.
Preseason projections carry 25% weight for teams that have played six FBS opponents, 18% if they have played seven, 11% if they have played eight.
Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 8, per FEI:
+4.6 Texas A&M
+4.1 Ohio State
+3.9 Alabama
+3.7 Georgia
+3.6 Indiana
+3.3 Ole Miss
+3.3 Notre Dame
+3.3 BYU
+3.2 Georgia Tech
+3.1 Miami
+4.6 Texas A&M
+4.1 Ohio State
+3.9 Alabama
+3.7 Georgia
+3.6 Indiana
+3.3 Ole Miss
+3.3 Notre Dame
+3.3 BYU
+3.2 Georgia Tech
+3.1 Miami
October 22, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 8, per FEI:
+4.6 Texas A&M
+4.1 Ohio State
+3.9 Alabama
+3.7 Georgia
+3.6 Indiana
+3.3 Ole Miss
+3.3 Notre Dame
+3.3 BYU
+3.2 Georgia Tech
+3.1 Miami
+4.6 Texas A&M
+4.1 Ohio State
+3.9 Alabama
+3.7 Georgia
+3.6 Indiana
+3.3 Ole Miss
+3.3 Notre Dame
+3.3 BYU
+3.2 Georgia Tech
+3.1 Miami
Toughest remaining regular season schedule in terms of losses a top 20-30 FBS team would expect to have against it, per FEI:
3.2 UCLA
3.0 Oklahoma
3.0 Mississippi State
3.0 Purdue
2.9 Wisconsin
2.7 Florida
2.7 Texas
2.7 Missouri
2.7 Kentucky
2.5 Vanderbilt
3.2 UCLA
3.0 Oklahoma
3.0 Mississippi State
3.0 Purdue
2.9 Wisconsin
2.7 Florida
2.7 Texas
2.7 Missouri
2.7 Kentucky
2.5 Vanderbilt
October 21, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Toughest remaining regular season schedule in terms of losses a top 20-30 FBS team would expect to have against it, per FEI:
3.2 UCLA
3.0 Oklahoma
3.0 Mississippi State
3.0 Purdue
2.9 Wisconsin
2.7 Florida
2.7 Texas
2.7 Missouri
2.7 Kentucky
2.5 Vanderbilt
3.2 UCLA
3.0 Oklahoma
3.0 Mississippi State
3.0 Purdue
2.9 Wisconsin
2.7 Florida
2.7 Texas
2.7 Missouri
2.7 Kentucky
2.5 Vanderbilt