@austextrader.bsky.social
Markets can be wrong but people don't lie with their money, so as long as it not a rigged market, markets can be wrong but they don't lie.
December 15, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Markets can be wrong but people don't lie with their money, so as long as it not a rigged market, markets can be wrong but they don't lie.
Will AI undo Nvidia's software moat. With AI, shouldn't you be able to port the software a lot faster. Amazon should be providing that functionality if it wants to succeed with it's chips.
December 2, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Will AI undo Nvidia's software moat. With AI, shouldn't you be able to port the software a lot faster. Amazon should be providing that functionality if it wants to succeed with it's chips.
Hard to know when this craziness will end. I never thought Bitcoin would be worth much, let alone 100K+. If something like Bitcoin with no cash flow or much utility can have so much value, why can't stocks continue with this craziness for much longer. Any thoughts on what pricks a bubble.
October 29, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Hard to know when this craziness will end. I never thought Bitcoin would be worth much, let alone 100K+. If something like Bitcoin with no cash flow or much utility can have so much value, why can't stocks continue with this craziness for much longer. Any thoughts on what pricks a bubble.
Hi John, How would your discipline handle a situation like Turkey. Are you worried about a milder version of that happening here with Trump trying to control the Fed.
August 17, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Hi John, How would your discipline handle a situation like Turkey. Are you worried about a milder version of that happening here with Trump trying to control the Fed.
Who knows when it heats up, may even get a lot worse before it gets better.
August 5, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Who knows when it heats up, may even get a lot worse before it gets better.
The farm sector is really critical for local politics in India, they tried to suck up but they won't bend on it either. Also in grand scheme of things US-India trade is not that critical for either country. So both sides have their heels dug in.
July 29, 2025 at 2:31 PM
The farm sector is really critical for local politics in India, they tried to suck up but they won't bend on it either. Also in grand scheme of things US-India trade is not that critical for either country. So both sides have their heels dug in.
Isn't this a bit misleading that the US rate is based on pre-tariff trade but in the future it will drop lower because most of the trade on the high tariff categories will drop but will remain high on the low tariff categories, so the trade weighted tariff might come in lower in the future.
July 17, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Isn't this a bit misleading that the US rate is based on pre-tariff trade but in the future it will drop lower because most of the trade on the high tariff categories will drop but will remain high on the low tariff categories, so the trade weighted tariff might come in lower in the future.
Thanks for the reply and explanation. Yeah, the ERP looks really low even with positive margin assumptions.
January 10, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Thanks for the reply and explanation. Yeah, the ERP looks really low even with positive margin assumptions.
But equity duration is a lot more than 10 years.
January 9, 2025 at 9:38 AM
But equity duration is a lot more than 10 years.
Pretty depressing
December 24, 2024 at 7:56 PM
Pretty depressing
Have you talked about under what conditions deficits start causing inflation - in a book or interview. Do you think US is at that point ?
December 14, 2024 at 7:19 PM
Have you talked about under what conditions deficits start causing inflation - in a book or interview. Do you think US is at that point ?
Kind of agree with the affluence part. After Obamacare not much the federal government can offer which would be very enticing to the average American. That's why two candidates were very similar on the economic front. Trans, feminist and immigration grievances crossed over to non whites as well.
December 14, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Kind of agree with the affluence part. After Obamacare not much the federal government can offer which would be very enticing to the average American. That's why two candidates were very similar on the economic front. Trans, feminist and immigration grievances crossed over to non whites as well.
Median positive return might be a better number to use for the prediction.
December 11, 2024 at 3:49 PM
Median positive return might be a better number to use for the prediction.
He is just a bully having fun. The most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world are high school bullies and good buddies.
December 10, 2024 at 3:57 PM
He is just a bully having fun. The most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world are high school bullies and good buddies.
Is he genuinely this dumb or inarticulate, or is this a calculated wrong framing to position his tariffs. He has now become president twice, I haven't made up my mind on whether he plays 4D chess or is this a real-life version of The Naked Gun.
December 8, 2024 at 5:50 PM
Is he genuinely this dumb or inarticulate, or is this a calculated wrong framing to position his tariffs. He has now become president twice, I haven't made up my mind on whether he plays 4D chess or is this a real-life version of The Naked Gun.
Michael, what do you think is the best strategy for boosting production locally in sectors like semiconductors, which are considered strategic from a defense perspective.
November 28, 2024 at 4:11 PM
Michael, what do you think is the best strategy for boosting production locally in sectors like semiconductors, which are considered strategic from a defense perspective.
@jasonfurman.bsky.social was one of the main reasons I couldn't leave the other platform. Now I can. I find his analysis of the inflation data to be the best.
November 27, 2024 at 9:15 PM
@jasonfurman.bsky.social was one of the main reasons I couldn't leave the other platform. Now I can. I find his analysis of the inflation data to be the best.
Reposted
FITCH: "The disinflationary trend that we saw earlier this year has effectively stalled as we head into what’s likely going to be a bumpy 2025 inflation ride. The Fed will be concerned and cautious. However, the totality of the data continues to point in the direction of a rate cut in December .."
November 27, 2024 at 3:41 PM
FITCH: "The disinflationary trend that we saw earlier this year has effectively stalled as we head into what’s likely going to be a bumpy 2025 inflation ride. The Fed will be concerned and cautious. However, the totality of the data continues to point in the direction of a rate cut in December .."
Reposted
Overall, adds more grist to the thesis that the last mile will be the hardest and that we're in a no landing scenario. Still a good chance of a soft landing given lagged shelter & imputed stuff. But it hasn't happened yet and is far from certain. My probabilities (incl Trump).
November 27, 2024 at 3:29 PM
Overall, adds more grist to the thesis that the last mile will be the hardest and that we're in a no landing scenario. Still a good chance of a soft landing given lagged shelter & imputed stuff. But it hasn't happened yet and is far from certain. My probabilities (incl Trump).
Reposted
Core PCE came in high (as expected). The last mile thesis has gained strength over the last several months as 12-month core PCE is now up 2.8%. You might say that includes outdated, lagged data. But 3-month is also a 2.8% annual rate.
November 27, 2024 at 3:29 PM
Core PCE came in high (as expected). The last mile thesis has gained strength over the last several months as 12-month core PCE is now up 2.8%. You might say that includes outdated, lagged data. But 3-month is also a 2.8% annual rate.
Is it better to negotiate openly in public like this or behind the scenes. I would think behind the scenes as it doesn't make the foreign leader appear weak in front of their voters.
November 26, 2024 at 2:26 PM
Is it better to negotiate openly in public like this or behind the scenes. I would think behind the scenes as it doesn't make the foreign leader appear weak in front of their voters.
Reposted
Now, let's see what we can do about fruit and vegetable prices... (HT @scottlincicome.bsky.social)
November 26, 2024 at 2:03 AM
Now, let's see what we can do about fruit and vegetable prices... (HT @scottlincicome.bsky.social)
Good to see you here
November 19, 2024 at 4:21 AM
Good to see you here