FITCH: "The disinflationary trend that we saw earlier this year has effectively stalled as we head into what’s likely going to be a bumpy 2025 inflation ride. The Fed will be concerned and cautious. However, the totality of the data continues to point in the direction of a rate cut in December .."

Overall, adds more grist to the thesis that the last mile will be the hardest and that we're in a no landing scenario. Still a good chance of a soft landing given lagged shelter & imputed stuff. But it hasn't happened yet and is far from certain. My probabilities (incl Trump).

Core PCE came in high (as expected). The last mile thesis has gained strength over the last several months as 12-month core PCE is now up 2.8%. You might say that includes outdated, lagged data. But 3-month is also a 2.8% annual rate.

Now, let's see what we can do about fruit and vegetable prices... (HT @scottlincicome.bsky.social)