Andy Seaton
@aseaton.bsky.social
Unemployed and chronically ill statistician. Convalescing and writing and hoping for health to return.
I've been reading Good Statistics by I. J. Good. He's entertaining as a writer. He's also pretty good at letting you know exactly what he thinks in the most unimpeachably polite British way possible.
#statsky
#statsky
February 10, 2026 at 4:03 PM
I've been reading Good Statistics by I. J. Good. He's entertaining as a writer. He's also pretty good at letting you know exactly what he thinks in the most unimpeachably polite British way possible.
#statsky
#statsky
Reading some Montaigne and mostly I enjoy his little melancholic meanderings. Then sometimes he casually drops in shit like this.
In the short essay On Idleness
In the short essay On Idleness
February 7, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Reading some Montaigne and mostly I enjoy his little melancholic meanderings. Then sometimes he casually drops in shit like this.
In the short essay On Idleness
In the short essay On Idleness
Nothing radicalised me more than realising that part-time nursery costs for one child the UK cost more than our mortgage.
Thankfully we are out of that period now but for the best part of a decade getting part-time childcare was equivalent in cost a second-mortgage on a bigger house than our own
Thankfully we are out of that period now but for the best part of a decade getting part-time childcare was equivalent in cost a second-mortgage on a bigger house than our own
Sitting comfortably & looking forward to @sarahcrook.bsky.social keynote for the @voicesofmotherhood.bsky.social. Fantastic two day conference happening now #voicesofmotherhood. @womenshistnet.bsky.social @whaireland.bsky.social @socialhistsoc.bsky.social #skystorians
February 5, 2026 at 12:11 PM
Nothing radicalised me more than realising that part-time nursery costs for one child the UK cost more than our mortgage.
Thankfully we are out of that period now but for the best part of a decade getting part-time childcare was equivalent in cost a second-mortgage on a bigger house than our own
Thankfully we are out of that period now but for the best part of a decade getting part-time childcare was equivalent in cost a second-mortgage on a bigger house than our own
Bayesians who think like this must be exhausted. So much philosophical weight on their shoulders. Maybe we need to start running some wellness retreats. Yoga followed by rhythmic chanting "I do not need to solve philosophy using maths"
Bayesians are like listen up FUCKERS, we SOLVED epistemology. And it turns out you can believe WHATEVER YOU WANT provided it’s not LITERALLY INCONSISTENT and you CHOSE THE RIGHT OPINIONS before LOOKING AT THE EVIDENCE AT ALL
February 4, 2026 at 10:37 AM
Bayesians who think like this must be exhausted. So much philosophical weight on their shoulders. Maybe we need to start running some wellness retreats. Yoga followed by rhythmic chanting "I do not need to solve philosophy using maths"
Reposted by Andy Seaton
📘 New book out soon !
I’m excited to share that 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞-𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐇𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐨𝐯 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐑 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐈𝐌𝐁𝐋𝐄 is being published by Chapman & Hall / CRC Press
Hope it’s useful to students, researchers, and practitioners
#StatisticalEcology #NIMBLE
I’m excited to share that 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞-𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐇𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐨𝐯 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐑 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐈𝐌𝐁𝐋𝐄 is being published by Chapman & Hall / CRC Press
Hope it’s useful to students, researchers, and practitioners
#StatisticalEcology #NIMBLE
February 1, 2026 at 11:38 AM
📘 New book out soon !
I’m excited to share that 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞-𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐇𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐨𝐯 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐑 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐈𝐌𝐁𝐋𝐄 is being published by Chapman & Hall / CRC Press
Hope it’s useful to students, researchers, and practitioners
#StatisticalEcology #NIMBLE
I’m excited to share that 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞-𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐇𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐨𝐯 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐑 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐈𝐌𝐁𝐋𝐄 is being published by Chapman & Hall / CRC Press
Hope it’s useful to students, researchers, and practitioners
#StatisticalEcology #NIMBLE
I like to collect examples of people trying to make numbers feel intuitive by relating them to things in everyday lived experience. For example:
"The extra water falling in the UK each year was equivalent to 3m Olympic-sized swimming pools, Fowler said: 'That’s a lot of extra water'"
"The extra water falling in the UK each year was equivalent to 3m Olympic-sized swimming pools, Fowler said: 'That’s a lot of extra water'"
January 31, 2026 at 9:50 AM
I like to collect examples of people trying to make numbers feel intuitive by relating them to things in everyday lived experience. For example:
"The extra water falling in the UK each year was equivalent to 3m Olympic-sized swimming pools, Fowler said: 'That’s a lot of extra water'"
"The extra water falling in the UK each year was equivalent to 3m Olympic-sized swimming pools, Fowler said: 'That’s a lot of extra water'"
I'm drafting a paper with a collaborator in which we are trying to sell a model with penalised splines. It's opened up a discussion on the 'correspondence' between penalties and priors.
Below are some excerpts from an email I sent to my coauthor. This is something I struggle to communicate.
Below are some excerpts from an email I sent to my coauthor. This is something I struggle to communicate.
January 14, 2026 at 2:38 PM
I'm drafting a paper with a collaborator in which we are trying to sell a model with penalised splines. It's opened up a discussion on the 'correspondence' between penalties and priors.
Below are some excerpts from an email I sent to my coauthor. This is something I struggle to communicate.
Below are some excerpts from an email I sent to my coauthor. This is something I struggle to communicate.
Doing some writing on probability today and I would very much like to know what the deal is with this urn and the coloured balls. Why do we have an urn? Why do we care about the balls? I need more info. It is inexplicable that we have 300 years of urn examples and we don't have more lore.
January 7, 2026 at 9:48 AM
Doing some writing on probability today and I would very much like to know what the deal is with this urn and the coloured balls. Why do we have an urn? Why do we care about the balls? I need more info. It is inexplicable that we have 300 years of urn examples and we don't have more lore.
Some half-formed thoughts on causal inference bc I've been reading about it very casually. (fucking yes, managed to spell them both right first go)
I get similar feelings to when I was reading about how the replication crisis would be solved by pre-registration and so
I get similar feelings to when I was reading about how the replication crisis would be solved by pre-registration and so
January 4, 2026 at 8:11 PM
Some half-formed thoughts on causal inference bc I've been reading about it very casually. (fucking yes, managed to spell them both right first go)
I get similar feelings to when I was reading about how the replication crisis would be solved by pre-registration and so
I get similar feelings to when I was reading about how the replication crisis would be solved by pre-registration and so
Playing with Bayesian non-parametrics for distance sampling (preprint out soon). Had a little moment where my feelings about the model were worringly conditional on how many histogram bins I used.
These four plots are from the same model fit, just different numbers of bins summarising the data.
These four plots are from the same model fit, just different numbers of bins summarising the data.
January 3, 2026 at 1:53 PM
Playing with Bayesian non-parametrics for distance sampling (preprint out soon). Had a little moment where my feelings about the model were worringly conditional on how many histogram bins I used.
These four plots are from the same model fit, just different numbers of bins summarising the data.
These four plots are from the same model fit, just different numbers of bins summarising the data.
Haven't been on this website in like 3 years, is this thing still on?
December 20, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Haven't been on this website in like 3 years, is this thing still on?
Just wanted to relax with some skyrim content but he only goes and uses stratified random plot sampling and so now my statistician work brain is triggered. Work brain is not relaxing. Terrible video.
Also very good, very informative, would rather teach echo stats in Skyrim than the real world.
Also very good, very informative, would rather teach echo stats in Skyrim than the real world.
Once again @anyaustin.bsky.social just blowing the competition away. How many trees are there in Skyrim? You do in fact want to know this.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=35yf...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=35yf...
How Many Trees Are There in Skyrim?
YouTube video by Any Austin
www.youtube.com
December 20, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Just wanted to relax with some skyrim content but he only goes and uses stratified random plot sampling and so now my statistician work brain is triggered. Work brain is not relaxing. Terrible video.
Also very good, very informative, would rather teach echo stats in Skyrim than the real world.
Also very good, very informative, would rather teach echo stats in Skyrim than the real world.
Reposted by Andy Seaton
Now accepting applicants for 25-26 intake of our #StatisticalEcology MSc: bit.ly/3ooHNyc. A unique opportunity to develop skills at the interface of #statistics and #ecology (some partial scholarships available too). Please help me share!
January 29, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Now accepting applicants for 25-26 intake of our #StatisticalEcology MSc: bit.ly/3ooHNyc. A unique opportunity to develop skills at the interface of #statistics and #ecology (some partial scholarships available too). Please help me share!
Watched this at Xmas, that's actually Gromit hiding behind there, he just cut out wee eye holes so he could see what the penguin, ahem I mean chicken, was up to.
'Last night I dreamt I went to Manderley again. It seemed to me I stood by the iron gate leading to the drive, and for a while I could not enter, for my eyes were too googly.'
January 17, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Watched this at Xmas, that's actually Gromit hiding behind there, he just cut out wee eye holes so he could see what the penguin, ahem I mean chicken, was up to.
Up to no good again
January 17, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Up to no good again
Can also do this with Lou Reed songs:
Kindly! Why don't you swallow razor blades?
Kindly! Why don't you swallow razor blades?
1. seek out any movie description on e.g. amazon, imdb, etc in which the word "vicious" occurs
2. replace "vicious" with "kindly"
2. replace "vicious" with "kindly"
December 9, 2024 at 12:01 PM
Can also do this with Lou Reed songs:
Kindly! Why don't you swallow razor blades?
Kindly! Why don't you swallow razor blades?
Well this is news to me
December 5, 2024 at 5:36 PM
Well this is news to me
Re-watching the West Wing and I love the fact that they know a huge news story will drop tomorrow because "it's on the internet right now".
November 28, 2024 at 5:53 PM
Re-watching the West Wing and I love the fact that they know a huge news story will drop tomorrow because "it's on the internet right now".
Tough week for my simulated mosquito populations. The creator has decreed ye shall have density dependent survival probability. To have lost access to infinity, truly I am sorry. Next up though you'll get a cool ability to hibernate for years through long droughts, so swings and roundabouts.
November 27, 2024 at 1:53 PM
Tough week for my simulated mosquito populations. The creator has decreed ye shall have density dependent survival probability. To have lost access to infinity, truly I am sorry. Next up though you'll get a cool ability to hibernate for years through long droughts, so swings and roundabouts.
Starting to get a feel for nimble. Write one model, with my own custom distributions, then compile, simulate, fit to simulations. In the old days I would write simulation code and then a separate JAGS model. Lots of potential for errors + contorting the model to be expressed w/ JAGS functions.
November 20, 2024 at 2:10 PM
Starting to get a feel for nimble. Write one model, with my own custom distributions, then compile, simulate, fit to simulations. In the old days I would write simulation code and then a separate JAGS model. Lots of potential for errors + contorting the model to be expressed w/ JAGS functions.
November 20, 2024 at 2:08 PM
Starting to get a feel for nimble. Write one model, with my own custom distributions, then compile, simulate, fit to simulations. In the old days I would write simulation code and then a separate JAGS model. Lots of potential for errors + contorting the model to be expressed w/ JAGS functions.
The academic grind never stops even on a Sunday. Got to network, get your research out there.
November 17, 2024 at 1:52 PM
The academic grind never stops even on a Sunday. Got to network, get your research out there.
I suppose I need a first post. I'm a statistican who is interested in ecology and epidemiology. I work on spatio-temporal modelling, population dynamics, and I have an interested in effectively communicating uncertainty from complex models to people of all backgrounds.
November 14, 2024 at 3:19 PM
I suppose I need a first post. I'm a statistican who is interested in ecology and epidemiology. I work on spatio-temporal modelling, population dynamics, and I have an interested in effectively communicating uncertainty from complex models to people of all backgrounds.