Alex Bogdan
@alexbgd.bsky.social
Talks about polls, democracy, elections, social research, survey methods. Openly obsessed with Hackney, gardening and Doctor Who. Photography @ alexbogdan_alex
Works at @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social, but views strictly my own.
Works at @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social, but views strictly my own.
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
ID, please? 🪪 4 in 10 (40%) Brits now oppose the introduction of a national identity card scheme, while 32% support.
In July 2025, 19% opposed the idea and 57% were in support 👇
In July 2025, 19% opposed the idea and 57% were in support 👇
Opposition to ID cards doubles since July, Ipsos poll finds
Four in ten (40%) now oppose the introduction of a national identity card scheme, with 32% in support. In July 2025 57% supported and 19% opposed.
bit.ly
February 10, 2026 at 3:05 PM
ID, please? 🪪 4 in 10 (40%) Brits now oppose the introduction of a national identity card scheme, while 32% support.
In July 2025, 19% opposed the idea and 57% were in support 👇
In July 2025, 19% opposed the idea and 57% were in support 👇
As we wait for other senior Labour figures to call for Starmer to resign, worth pondering this: even before the latest Mandelson saga, Starmer's likeability ratings were low. But this isn't that unusual for Labour, leaders have always been less liked than the party in our polling - except Starmer
February 9, 2026 at 1:55 PM
As we wait for other senior Labour figures to call for Starmer to resign, worth pondering this: even before the latest Mandelson saga, Starmer's likeability ratings were low. But this isn't that unusual for Labour, leaders have always been less liked than the party in our polling - except Starmer
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
🔴Net likeability ratings for Starmer (-50) equal Corbyn’s previous low, while the party is less liked than any time in Ipsos trends going back to 2007 (-22). But Labour is still more liked than its leader – and more than the other parties.
February 9, 2026 at 9:59 AM
🔴Net likeability ratings for Starmer (-50) equal Corbyn’s previous low, while the party is less liked than any time in Ipsos trends going back to 2007 (-22). But Labour is still more liked than its leader – and more than the other parties.
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
Rachel Reeves continues to have the worst net satisfaction scores Ipsos has ever recorded for a Chancellor of the Exchequer.
📊12% satisfied
📊73% dissatisfied
📊Net -61
📊12% satisfied
📊73% dissatisfied
📊Net -61
February 5, 2026 at 10:21 AM
Rachel Reeves continues to have the worst net satisfaction scores Ipsos has ever recorded for a Chancellor of the Exchequer.
📊12% satisfied
📊73% dissatisfied
📊Net -61
📊12% satisfied
📊73% dissatisfied
📊Net -61
Good defence of 'the public' quoting @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social work w/ @britishfuture.bsky.social: 1/2 Brits wrongly think net migration went up last year. Clearly the public are not migration or statistics experts. But they notice the world around them & react to it, if not always in expected ways
February 4, 2026 at 1:54 PM
Good defence of 'the public' quoting @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social work w/ @britishfuture.bsky.social: 1/2 Brits wrongly think net migration went up last year. Clearly the public are not migration or statistics experts. But they notice the world around them & react to it, if not always in expected ways
The latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Monitor brought some respite to established political parties
1) Kemi Badenoch's satisfaction scores continue to improve, incl. among Conservative supporters, from +16 among Tory voters in Nov to +49 now. Still negative -31 among the general public.
1) Kemi Badenoch's satisfaction scores continue to improve, incl. among Conservative supporters, from +16 among Tory voters in Nov to +49 now. Still negative -31 among the general public.
February 3, 2026 at 12:36 PM
The latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Monitor brought some respite to established political parties
1) Kemi Badenoch's satisfaction scores continue to improve, incl. among Conservative supporters, from +16 among Tory voters in Nov to +49 now. Still negative -31 among the general public.
1) Kemi Badenoch's satisfaction scores continue to improve, incl. among Conservative supporters, from +16 among Tory voters in Nov to +49 now. Still negative -31 among the general public.
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
Only 15% are satisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as PM – hardly changed from 13% in Nov 2025
77% are dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -62.
77% are dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -62.
February 2, 2026 at 11:30 AM
Only 15% are satisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as PM – hardly changed from 13% in Nov 2025
77% are dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -62.
77% are dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -62.
NEW Voting intention from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social shows some signs of recovery from Labour and Conservatives
Reform UK 30% (-3 since November 2025)
Labour 22% (+4)
Conservative 19% (+3)
Greens 12% (-3)
Lib Dems 12% (nc)
Others 5% (-1)
Reform UK lead: +8 (down from +15)
So what's been happening?
Reform UK 30% (-3 since November 2025)
Labour 22% (+4)
Conservative 19% (+3)
Greens 12% (-3)
Lib Dems 12% (nc)
Others 5% (-1)
Reform UK lead: +8 (down from +15)
So what's been happening?
February 1, 2026 at 11:15 AM
NEW Voting intention from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social shows some signs of recovery from Labour and Conservatives
Reform UK 30% (-3 since November 2025)
Labour 22% (+4)
Conservative 19% (+3)
Greens 12% (-3)
Lib Dems 12% (nc)
Others 5% (-1)
Reform UK lead: +8 (down from +15)
So what's been happening?
Reform UK 30% (-3 since November 2025)
Labour 22% (+4)
Conservative 19% (+3)
Greens 12% (-3)
Lib Dems 12% (nc)
Others 5% (-1)
Reform UK lead: +8 (down from +15)
So what's been happening?
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
First leaderboard of 2026📊
We asked the public 'to what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following politicians and political parties?’.
We asked the public 'to what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following politicians and political parties?’.
January 28, 2026 at 9:30 AM
First leaderboard of 2026📊
We asked the public 'to what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following politicians and political parties?’.
We asked the public 'to what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following politicians and political parties?’.
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
When the public are asked whether Keir Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than a host of leading politicians, Burnham is the only one to come out on top, leading the current PM by 7 points.
However, Burnham’s lead is down from 13 points last month.
However, Burnham’s lead is down from 13 points last month.
January 26, 2026 at 10:01 AM
When the public are asked whether Keir Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than a host of leading politicians, Burnham is the only one to come out on top, leading the current PM by 7 points.
However, Burnham’s lead is down from 13 points last month.
However, Burnham’s lead is down from 13 points last month.
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
If given the choice between the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Britons are slightly more likely to favour Labour – however…
January 23, 2026 at 1:54 PM
If given the choice between the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Britons are slightly more likely to favour Labour – however…
electoral Christmas?
January 19, 2026 at 6:38 PM
electoral Christmas?
The new cleavage in British politics seems to be whether Britain is indeed broken. Is it? @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data says:
1) It feels broken. 80% say Britain is getting worse as a place to live, only 3% better. In 2025, Economic Optimism fell to the lowest we've ever recorded since the 1970s.
1) It feels broken. 80% say Britain is getting worse as a place to live, only 3% better. In 2025, Economic Optimism fell to the lowest we've ever recorded since the 1970s.
January 19, 2026 at 11:55 AM
The new cleavage in British politics seems to be whether Britain is indeed broken. Is it? @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data says:
1) It feels broken. 80% say Britain is getting worse as a place to live, only 3% better. In 2025, Economic Optimism fell to the lowest we've ever recorded since the 1970s.
1) It feels broken. 80% say Britain is getting worse as a place to live, only 3% better. In 2025, Economic Optimism fell to the lowest we've ever recorded since the 1970s.
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
In April 2025, we asked the public how a possible defection from Jenrick would impact their perceptions of Reform UK.
Amongst Reform UK voters perceptions were likely to improve, but it would make less of a positive difference for Labour and Conservative voters.
Amongst Reform UK voters perceptions were likely to improve, but it would make less of a positive difference for Labour and Conservative voters.
January 15, 2026 at 12:35 PM
In April 2025, we asked the public how a possible defection from Jenrick would impact their perceptions of Reform UK.
Amongst Reform UK voters perceptions were likely to improve, but it would make less of a positive difference for Labour and Conservative voters.
Amongst Reform UK voters perceptions were likely to improve, but it would make less of a positive difference for Labour and Conservative voters.
How will this go down? In April 2025, @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social found that for most, Jenrick defecting to Reform would make no difference or make them more negative about Reform. But Reform 2024 voters were much more positive! and Conservative voters a bit more positive.
January 15, 2026 at 12:23 PM
How will this go down? In April 2025, @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social found that for most, Jenrick defecting to Reform would make no difference or make them more negative about Reform. But Reform 2024 voters were much more positive! and Conservative voters a bit more positive.
NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social : as expected Brits increasingly likely to think the EU is most important to Britain, over US or Commonwealth. And more think US is using its power for bad around the world.
January 12, 2026 at 2:11 PM
NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social : as expected Brits increasingly likely to think the EU is most important to Britain, over US or Commonwealth. And more think US is using its power for bad around the world.
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
I think this is very poorly misunderstood. The reason why the 'the UK, a dangerous crimehole' stuff matters is that people in other countries who might invest in the UK see it online and believe it, not because the electoral constituency for it is particularly large or significant.
When we look at satisfaction with policing (I know, not the same as perceptions of crime, but hopefully helpful proxy) and crime rates in Police Force Areas, there is a clear link (interactive maps here tinyurl.com/c56jbcwc). And our Issues Index has concern with crime relatively low. ...
January 12, 2026 at 2:01 PM
I think this is very poorly misunderstood. The reason why the 'the UK, a dangerous crimehole' stuff matters is that people in other countries who might invest in the UK see it online and believe it, not because the electoral constituency for it is particularly large or significant.
Reposted by Alex Bogdan
For a summary of our latest research on how financial insecurity is the prompt for Labour's losses, see this pithy summary written by Nuffield College postdoctoral research fellow, Justin Robinson:
theconversation.com/why-economic...
theconversation.com/why-economic...
January 7, 2026 at 1:04 PM
For a summary of our latest research on how financial insecurity is the prompt for Labour's losses, see this pithy summary written by Nuffield College postdoctoral research fellow, Justin Robinson:
theconversation.com/why-economic...
theconversation.com/why-economic...
Starmer used the first 2026 cabinet to refocus on the cost of living, warning that voters at the next election will judge the gov't on whether “people feel better off”. But,voters are judging now. Reform UK has a clear lead among Brits who are struggling financially from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
January 7, 2026 at 12:44 PM
Starmer used the first 2026 cabinet to refocus on the cost of living, warning that voters at the next election will judge the gov't on whether “people feel better off”. But,voters are judging now. Reform UK has a clear lead among Brits who are struggling financially from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
Starmer betting it all on people starting to see improvements this year. But in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social milestones polling, very few saw progress since election, living standards at the very bottom. PM might be frustrated with the slow pace of progress, but so are Brits horturl.at/Sysbv
January 5, 2026 at 1:41 PM
Starmer betting it all on people starting to see improvements this year. But in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social milestones polling, very few saw progress since election, living standards at the very bottom. PM might be frustrated with the slow pace of progress, but so are Brits horturl.at/Sysbv
I kid you not. When I was at uni, political science, in the late '00s, we were debating whether Francis Fukuyama was right
January 5, 2026 at 9:34 AM
I kid you not. When I was at uni, political science, in the late '00s, we were debating whether Francis Fukuyama was right
The political time is probably ripe. Last year one in two favoured a closer trade relationship with the EU even if it hurt trade with the US. Whatever happens now with Maduro and Venezuela is likely to worsen Brits' views of the US and suspect we'll see a jump in this chart
January 4, 2026 at 2:38 PM
The political time is probably ripe. Last year one in two favoured a closer trade relationship with the EU even if it hurt trade with the US. Whatever happens now with Maduro and Venezuela is likely to worsen Brits' views of the US and suspect we'll see a jump in this chart
It's true that extent of hatred towards Starmer and Reeves seems to be confounding people - not just pollsters, also heard this from people on the left who are not at all friendly to Labour. As the article mentions, both have hit record lows in our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social records
December 31, 2025 at 12:44 PM
It's true that extent of hatred towards Starmer and Reeves seems to be confounding people - not just pollsters, also heard this from people on the left who are not at all friendly to Labour. As the article mentions, both have hit record lows in our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social records
I set 2025 @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling over a melody and got The Who Won’t get fooled again:
When Labour took office, they were on a mission, or five. But through 2025, the British public didn't think the gov't would achieve their missions. Why this lack of confidence? shorturl.at/eP9ML
When Labour took office, they were on a mission, or five. But through 2025, the British public didn't think the gov't would achieve their missions. Why this lack of confidence? shorturl.at/eP9ML
December 22, 2025 at 3:45 PM
I set 2025 @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling over a melody and got The Who Won’t get fooled again:
When Labour took office, they were on a mission, or five. But through 2025, the British public didn't think the gov't would achieve their missions. Why this lack of confidence? shorturl.at/eP9ML
When Labour took office, they were on a mission, or five. But through 2025, the British public didn't think the gov't would achieve their missions. Why this lack of confidence? shorturl.at/eP9ML
A lot to agree with in here. (More?) proof that Labour's strategy isn't working is this chart I've shared before from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social. Labour are losing voters to both the left and right, and it's getting worse. They were holding on to 54% of their 2024 voters in June, 50% Sept, 40% Nov.
December 15, 2025 at 2:10 PM
A lot to agree with in here. (More?) proof that Labour's strategy isn't working is this chart I've shared before from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social. Labour are losing voters to both the left and right, and it's getting worse. They were holding on to 54% of their 2024 voters in June, 50% Sept, 40% Nov.