Tim Leunig
LightNews LightNews
timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig
@timleunig.bsky.social
5.4K followers 140 following 420 posts

Policy thoughts: http://timleunig.substack.com Chief Economist Nesta, Director Econ PublicFirst, Vis Prof LSE Sch Public Policy, Vis Fellow Inst for Govt

Videos

Timothy Charles Leunig is an economist at the London School of Economics's Department of Economic History. After a long career as a special advisor, he became a director at the economic consultants Public First. .. more

Economics 62%
Political science 13%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Tim Leunig

joniaskola.bsky.social
Joni Askola @joniaskola.bsky.social · 9h
On the 34th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union, I am deeply thankful to the generations of Finns before me who fought courageously to ensure that Finland was never part of the inhumane, deadly experiment that was the Soviet Union

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 2d
Still great value: no one in the private sector is offering it more cheaply. Well done DfE!
schoolsweek.bsky.social Schools Week @schoolsweek.bsky.social · 2d
The Department for Education has confirmed costs for its school insurance programme will rise again by 7.4 per cent this year, with the scheme now costing 60 per cent more than in 2020
schoolsweek.co.uk/cost-of-dfes...
Cost of DfE's school insurance scheme to rise 7.4%
Risk protection arrangement costs have risen by 61 per cent since 2020
schoolsweek.co.uk

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 2d
And presumably the U turn cost money, so forcing the government to take other tough decisions in future...
tom-clark.bsky.social Tom Clark @tom-clark.bsky.social · 3d
Half reform inheritance tax so farmers treated a bit more like others

Run into a backlash

Wait

Wait

Wait till it’s dropped off radar

Then decide that a quarter-reform might be better

Will this win any votes?

Hard to imagine

What it will do is make it harder to make other policies stick
paullewismoney.bsky.social Paul Lewis @paullewismoney.bsky.social · 3d
Major new concession on farm inheritance tax bit.ly/3Y9rdDX on top of normal reliefs farmers can leave £2.5m tax free - up from £1m - and heirs pay half normal tax on rest. Left to a spouse all is taxfree and then spouse’s heirs gets double - could total £6 million free of Inheritance Tax.

Reposted by Tim Leunig

schoolsweek.bsky.social
Schools Week @schoolsweek.bsky.social · 2d
The Department for Education has confirmed costs for its school insurance programme will rise again by 7.4 per cent this year, with the scheme now costing 60 per cent more than in 2020
schoolsweek.co.uk/cost-of-dfes...
Cost of DfE's school insurance scheme to rise 7.4%
Risk protection arrangement costs have risen by 61 per cent since 2020
schoolsweek.co.uk

Reposted by Tim Leunig

tom-clark.bsky.social
Tom Clark @tom-clark.bsky.social · 3d
Half reform inheritance tax so farmers treated a bit more like others

Run into a backlash

Wait

Wait

Wait till it’s dropped off radar

Then decide that a quarter-reform might be better

Will this win any votes?

Hard to imagine

What it will do is make it harder to make other policies stick
paullewismoney.bsky.social Paul Lewis @paullewismoney.bsky.social · 3d
Major new concession on farm inheritance tax bit.ly/3Y9rdDX on top of normal reliefs farmers can leave £2.5m tax free - up from £1m - and heirs pay half normal tax on rest. Left to a spouse all is taxfree and then spouse’s heirs gets double - could total £6 million free of Inheritance Tax.
Inheritance tax reliefs threshold to rise to £2.5m for farmers and businesses
£1m Agricultural and Business Property Reliefs threshold increased to £2.5m from April 2026 – allowing spouses or civil partners to pass on up to £5m in qualifying agricultural or business assets betw...
bit.ly

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 3d
Worth reporting, @schoolsweek.bsky.social !
tenisonblue.bsky.social Tenison Blue @tenisonblue.bsky.social · 3d
If I have my sums right, it will be a total increase of 16% since it was introduced in 2014, which is a very small tad over 1% a year.

I can get that the some of the large ups-and-downs will make it difficult to manage, but we’d all love costs that went up that slowly.

Reposted by Tim Leunig

tenisonblue.bsky.social
Tenison Blue @tenisonblue.bsky.social · 3d
If I have my sums right, it will be a total increase of 16% since it was introduced in 2014, which is a very small tad over 1% a year.

I can get that the some of the large ups-and-downs will make it difficult to manage, but we’d all love costs that went up that slowly.

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 3d
It basically doesn't matter so long as enough gets built!

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 3d
If any entrepreneur thinks they can offer schools insurance more cheaply they can do so. Otherwise the government scheme remains what it always has been, outstanding value for money.
schoolsweek.bsky.social Schools Week @schoolsweek.bsky.social · 3d
The Department for Education has confirmed costs for its school insurance programme will rise again by 7.4 per cent this year, with the scheme now costing 60 per cent more than in 2020
schoolsweek.co.uk/cost-of-dfes...
Cost of DfE's school insurance scheme to rise 7.4%
Risk protection arrangement costs have risen by 61 per cent since 2020
schoolsweek.co.uk

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 3d
Glad you like the paper, but cross sectional UK evidence suggests next to no effect of house prices on family size.
rmudie96.bsky.social Ross Mudie @rmudie96.bsky.social · 3d
Maybe one for @timleunig.bsky.social team for 2026….

Reposted by Tim Leunig

schoolsweek.bsky.social
Schools Week @schoolsweek.bsky.social · 3d
The Department for Education has confirmed costs for its school insurance programme will rise again by 7.4 per cent this year, with the scheme now costing 60 per cent more than in 2020
schoolsweek.co.uk/cost-of-dfes...
Cost of DfE's school insurance scheme to rise 7.4%
Risk protection arrangement costs have risen by 61 per cent since 2020
schoolsweek.co.uk

Reposted by Tim Leunig

anthonypainter.bsky.social
Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 3d
Which model of housing will increase affordability? Madrid (market-led, "abundance") or Barcelona (state-regulated, scarcity).

You need both of course. In the case of the UK, I would be inclined to bet on a strategic state managing/sitting alongside the market.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Barcelona and Madrid have very different ideas on tackling Spain’s housing crisis. Which will succeed? | Jaime Palomera
While the country’s capital is loosening regulations, the Catalan city is strengthening social housing. Their outcomes will affect all our futures, says author and researcher Jaime Palomera
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Tim Leunig

rmudie96.bsky.social
Ross Mudie @rmudie96.bsky.social · 3d
Maybe one for @timleunig.bsky.social team for 2026….

Reposted by Tim Leunig

dreadships.bsky.social
Dreadnought Holiday @dreadships.bsky.social · 4d
*small boats stuck klaxon*
Major incident declared over Shropshire canal 'sinkhole'
A multi-agency response is under way at the scene in Whitchurch, with the public asked to stay away.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Jill Rutter

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 4d
Air passenger duty is a terribly designed tax - my substack this week (£/free trial) sets out how to sort it out timleunig.substack.com/p/air-passen...

Reposted by Margot C. Finn, Tim Leunig

t0nyyates.bsky.social
Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 4d
UK not the only ones to self-harm just as the US is creating a new market for foreign students: dub.uu.nl/en/news/econ...
Economics programme in shock after sudden cancellation of English-taught track
The Bachelor's programme in Economics & Business Economics will only be offered in Dutch from 2029 onwards, the Executive Board announced on Tuesday. The news came as a complete surprise to the econom...
dub.uu.nl

Reposted by Elena Litchman, Ben Barr, Tim Leunig

ourworldindata.org
Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 8d
Explore how other OECD countries spend their budgets: ourworldindata.org/grapher/gove...
Government spending by function
Share of total government spending by purpose of government activity. Categories are based on the Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG).
ourworldindata.org

Reposted by Tim Leunig

resolutionfoundation.org
Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 9d
Among new ADP applicants who received a decision between January and July 2025, 44 per cent of mobility awards and 35 per cent of daily living awards were paid at the ‘enhanced’ level.

These are both smaller proportions than for new PIP applicants in England and Wales.

➡️ buff.ly/OAMzq06
among new ADP applicants who received a decision between January and July 2025, 44 per cent of mobility awards and 35 per cent of daily living awards were paid at the ‘enhanced’ (i.e. more generous) level. But these are both smaller proportions than for new PIP applicants in England and Wales, where 54 per cent of mobility awards and 42 per cent of daily living awards were made at the enhanced level.

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 9d
Last week I wrote my new @nestauk.bsky.social Economics Edit column on falling world food prices. Today ONS says UK food prices fell, lowering inflation and (probably) leading to an interest rate cut. If you want to read all about it before it happens, sign up here: www.linkedin.com/posts/nesta_...
Sign up to the economics edit | Nesta
Introducing the economics edit, by our chief economist Tim Leunig 🗞️ Every two weeks, Tim will write about the trends, data and signals shaping the political economy. We think this is one you won’t ...
www.linkedin.com

Reposted by Hugh Pemberton

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 10d
Any tax system that requires a 13 year court case to decide the tax status of supermarket chicken is not fit for purpose. We should have VAT on everything, at a lower rate - www.nesta.org.uk/blog/fiscal-... 2/2
Fiscal options: untangling VAT
VAT reform could stabilise public finances and simplify our tax system – making it both manageable and beneficial
www.nesta.org.uk

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 10d
Oops they did it again! More evidence of the craziness of UK VAT rules as court rules AFTER 13 YEARS that Morrisons rotisserie chicken is kept hot (by the packaging) and is therefore liable to VAT. www.ft.com/content/d8d0... 1/2
Morrisons loses £17mn VAT fight as court rules rotisserie chickens are hot food
High court rules product should be subject to the 20 per cent tax rate after 13-year case
www.ft.com

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 11d
HMT are recruiting new Director for Financial Services. It is a senior job - in the top 40 HMT civil servants. Salary £100,000. Which is a way of saying "don't apply if you have ever had a senior position in finance". #NotSensible. www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi... to apply
Quick Check Needed
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk

Reposted by Tim Leunig

gilesyb.bsky.social
Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 11d
my regular reminder to myself that ONS search results are actively, imaginatively bad: they must surely be programming it to ensure that "ASHE survey" immediately brings back *2012's* results, just for lolz

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 11d
Not content with writing a weekly policy ideas substack (free/£), not content with writing a fortnightly piece for , I am now writing "the economics edit" fortnightly for @nestauk.bsky.social. It is free - you can sign up here: mailchi.mp/a6c78a1be69a...
Sign up to the economics edit
mailchi.mp

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 13d
You are wrong on child poverty @stephenkb.bsky.social. There is no plan to get it back to 2010 levels, for example. Only a decision that it would not get even worse under Labour.
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 13d
Big difficulty of this government is Downing Street identifies a £20bn problem, correctly, then puts £2bn behind it. The only place where its policy matches its rhetoric is child poverty, where it had to be dragged into it, protesting that adequate policy was 'un-Labour' all the way.

Reposted by Tim Leunig

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 13d
Big difficulty of this government is Downing Street identifies a £20bn problem, correctly, then puts £2bn behind it. The only place where its policy matches its rhetoric is child poverty, where it had to be dragged into it, protesting that adequate policy was 'un-Labour' all the way.

Reposted by Tim Leunig

paulginva.bsky.social
Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 13d
This man doesn't just lead from the rear.

Slava Ukraini!
This image captures Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visiting the northeastern town of Kupiansk on December 12, 2025. The tweet from the official Ukraine account highlights a series of events leading up to the visit, contrasting Russian claims of control over Kupiansk with the reality of Ukrainian presence. On November 20, a Russian general reportedly told Putin that Kupiansk was under control. On December 2, Putin invited foreign media to the town, likely to showcase Russian occupation. The image shows Zelenskyy in the town on December 12, indicating it is under Ukrainian control and reinforcing Ukraine's diplomatic position.

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 15d
Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity <<< Simon Johnson & Daron Acemoglu's book is 99p on kindle today. Bargain! www.amazon.co.uk/Power-Progre...
www.amazon.co.uk

timleunig.bsky.social
Tim Leunig @timleunig.bsky.social · 16d
Of all the policy ideas I have written up since leaving government, my plan to reduce and eliminate smoking is the one I would most like to see government take up - timleunig.substack.com/p/smoking

Reposted by Tim Leunig

karliuk.com
Maksim Karliuk @karliuk.com · 18d
Brexit's "great success": £850 million loss a week. That's a number to put on a bus, and a bargain of the century according to @timleunig.bsky.social: pay £350 million - get £850 million. shows.acast.com/the-economic...
How to kickstart the UK economy. With Tim Leunig | The Economics Show
Planning and tax reform are at the top of this ex government adviser’s list
shows.acast.com