Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
Political scientist, Ohio State
Political science
38%
Sociology
26%
Reposted by Ethan Porter
Debunking “When Prophecy Fails”
In 1954, Dorothy Martin predicted an apocalyptic flood and promised her followers rescue by flying saucers. When neither arrived, she recanted, her group dissolved, and efforts to proselytize ceased....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
When 'When Prophecy Fails' Fails:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
(h/t @ethanvporter.bsky.social )
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
(h/t @ethanvporter.bsky.social )
In 2025, polarization on schools & the Supreme Court leaves only Banks + Big Business with moderate/high confidence across parties.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
The recent reversal in Republicans' moral approval of Gay and Lesbian relations is even more striking in context -- it does *not* coincide with more restrictive moral licensing in other areas.
Data from Gallup's Social Series.
Data from Gallup's Social Series.
The inversion between income and Whites' presidential vote is also found among the validated voters in the just released Cooperative Election Study.
Something undergrads after often surprised to find out--there's curiously little money in American politics.
Nope! Survey research was expensive in the 1940s!
The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters.
Updated estimates here:
Updated estimates here:
Reposted by Joanna Bryson
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Sep 30
Rapid secularization of Democratic politics continues -- in the 2024 ANES, only 54% of Democrats reported religion an important part of their life.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Sep 28
Trump's presidency has coincided with a rapid decline in GOP partisan advantage -- a 5 percentage point decline since the end of Biden's presidency.
Data from Gallup social series.
Data from Gallup social series.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Sep 25
Might be of interest to those teaching American politics -- motivated reasoning in retrospective economic/personal/geostrategic evaluation has been a stable part of presidential elections for 40 years.
Data from the @electionstudies.bsky.social CDF and 2024 timeseries.
Data from the @electionstudies.bsky.social CDF and 2024 timeseries.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Aug 21
As expected, the change in government sharply reduced Democrats’ trust in the CDC and FDA. But surprisingly, by 2025 Democrats now express higher trust in federal health authorities than Republicans do.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Aug 15
With initial data, it appears that Trump's 2nd term approval is weakly related to consumer confidence.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Jul 25
The rightward shift in young men's partisanship is recent -- since 2024.
data from the @pewresearch.org 's NPORS study.
data from the @pewresearch.org 's NPORS study.
Even Republicans have not recovered their pre-pandemic levels of economic confidence.
Data from the University of Michigan ISR's (bsky-less?) consumer sentiment survey
Data from the University of Michigan ISR's (bsky-less?) consumer sentiment survey
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Jun 20
Presidential vote has only been correlated with life expectancy since 2008, and even then the effect is strongest among whites.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Jun 18
While liberals have moved almost a full scale point more supportive of free trade since the election (on a 7pt scale) conservatives are unmoved.
A super interesting case for the role of elites in shaping mass attitudes.
Data from the incredible @prl.bsky.social 's 'America's Political Pulse.'
A super interesting case for the role of elites in shaping mass attitudes.
Data from the incredible @prl.bsky.social 's 'America's Political Pulse.'
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Jun 13
Outside of a tiny number of super polarized issues (in this case, immigration and climate change), the American public basically agrees on the topics deserving of national attention.
Data from AP-NORC.
Data from AP-NORC.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· Jun 11
Gun control attitudes continue to depolarize (on the margins!) in the 2024 General Social Survey.
Data from @norc.org
Data from @norc.org
It's only on questions of race where younger generations are less tolerant -- for the other speakers on the GSS, Gen Z/Millenials basically indistinguishable from other Americans.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· May 30
National political spending preferences by partisanship, 1972-2024.
Fascinating that numerous policy areas have seen negligble polarization over this period. Data from @norc.org's GSS
Fascinating that numerous policy areas have seen negligble polarization over this period. Data from @norc.org's GSS
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· May 29
Confidence in national institutions, by partisanship, 1974-2024.
The collapse in Democrats' Supreme Court confidence in 2022-2024 is the largest single year change seen in 50 years. Data from the GSS @norc.org
The collapse in Democrats' Supreme Court confidence in 2022-2024 is the largest single year change seen in 50 years. Data from the GSS @norc.org
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· May 27
The newly released GSS shows Whites continue to liberalize in their perceived cause of racial economic inequality.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· May 27
Stark class income * partisan effect also apparent in 119th Congress's congressional districts:
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· May 24
Whoa nice to think of a mere in bsky w/ a lede!
But sure Dems becoming marginally less expansionary in abortion attitudes
But sure Dems becoming marginally less expansionary in abortion attitudes
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· May 24
Abortion attidudes depolarized (on the margins!) in the newly released 2024 General Social Survey from @norc.org.
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· May 10
Ha fair enough.
I'm always down for new ways to burnish Chicago's credentials!
I'm always down for new ways to burnish Chicago's credentials!
Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
· May 10
Is the Catholic Theological Union affiliated with the UofC?
If the Papal pick leaked, no one made it to the bookmakers...
With the release of the 2024 ANES, further evidence that Trump's invovlement in US politics had the effect of *reducing* authoritarianism in the public (in a thermostatic style--of course!--with larger changes among Democratic voters)
Data from @electionstudies.bsky.social CDF and 2024ts
Data from @electionstudies.bsky.social CDF and 2024ts
The Australian Federal election swing in historical context (1943-2025).
The shift in two-party preference is more modest than I expected, given the swing in seats. #auspol
The shift in two-party preference is more modest than I expected, given the swing in seats. #auspol