Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Nikolas Gvosdev

@fpriorbis.bsky.social

3K followers 260 following 3.1K posts

Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev-925485301/ .. more

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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev is a Russian–American international relations scholar. He is currently professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College and the former Editor of the bi-monthly foreign policy journal, The National Interest. He writes as a specialist on US foreign policy as well as international politics as they affect Russia and its neighbors. He currently serves as editor of the journal Orbis. .. more

Political science 69%

Sociology 14%

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 27d

Is an organizing principle for U.S. national security emerging around the frame of #business_diplomacy ( #commercial_diplomacy ) with a #geotechnology focus? Some analysis in #BakuDialogues and @fpri.bsky.social (links in comments).

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 7h

The @lemelson.bsky.social query as to whether "there a tacit, “shadow agreement” between President Trump and Vladimir Putin?" on Venezuela/Ukraine is being answered in the negative, at least by the Russian commentators I'm seeing.

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 7h

Russian commentators are complaining Moscow spent time, effort and resources in Venezuela that have produced no gains. Not only has the U.S. apparently "won" in Venezuela, it is also steadily reducing Russian influence on Moscow's doorstep in the Caucasus.

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

So the Bella 1 to Marianara / Guyanese to Russian flag shift didn't work out as well in real life ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kwpy...

Changing the Ship Name as Interpol Approaches | Lord of War

YouTube video by Clip Empire

www.youtube.com

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Nahal Toosi @nahaltoosi.bsky.social · 1d

Rubio today called what's left of the regime in Venezuela the "interim authorities" and said "this will be a process of transition" but won't give a timeline.

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 1d

Maybe we will stop with this nonsense from status quo powers that were once very successful revisionist powers tut-tutting current-day revisionist powers now that the status-quo power is doing its own revisionism.

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

And another benchmark to watch: will Trafigura be able to restart its trading in Venezuelan oil?

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d

Where does Russia fit in America's vision for a post-Maduro Venezuelan oil industry? www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

So two indicators to look for based on comments made by Secretary of State Rubio ... 1) Whether the "quarantine" on export of Venezuela oil continues to be applied against production from t...

So two indicators to look for based on comments made by Secretary of State Rubio ... 1) Whether the "quarantine" on export of Venezuela oil continues to be applied against production from the Rosneft...

www.linkedin.com

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

This seems to have been the intent of one of the points of the original 28 point plan--about NATO air assets based "in Poland" (e.g. along Ukraine's western borders) meant to provide a shield over most of Ukraine, as part of providing a tangible security guarantee.

Andreas Umland @umland.bsky.social · 2d

Support with Western interceptors to protect western and central Ukraine — known as "SkyShield" — would already be possible and sensible now, i.e., before a ceasefire is concluded.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...

The mirage of a European 'reassurance force' in Ukraine

As President Volodymyr Zelensky landed in Paris for the Coalition of the Willing talks, a key topic on the agenda is the "European-led multinational force Ukraine." A draft statement by the Coalition…

www.yahoo.com

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Andreas Umland @umland.bsky.social · 2d

The mirage of a European 'reassurance force' in Ukraine

www.yahoo.com

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d

and water will become a loaded weapon in several of the world's most dangerous rivalries—and a tool for non-state actors exploiting state weakness." 2/ www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/ri...

The water weapon: Eurasia Group's #10 Top Risk of 2026

Water is becoming a loaded weapon in several of the world's most dangerous rivalries.

www.eurasiagroup.net

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d

For @eurasiagroup.net @ianbremmer.com and Cliff Kupchan warn about the water leg of the #trilemma challenge: "Water is becoming the most contested shared resource on the planet. In 2026, demand pressures will intensify, the governance vacuum will deepen, 1/

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d

"the truly serious challenges come not from trade, but from America’s huge and deeply problematic non-tradeable sectors"--health care and housing. @rajakorman.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/5959...