Nikolas Gvosdev
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fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev
@fpriorbis.bsky.social

Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev-925485301/ .. more

Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev is a Russian–American international relations scholar. He is currently professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College and the former Editor of the bi-monthly foreign policy journal, The National Interest. He writes as a specialist on US foreign policy as well as international politics as they affect Russia and its neighbors. He currently serves as editor of the journal Orbis. .. more

Political science 69%
Sociology 14%
Pinned
Conversation with Peter Apps for Project for the Study of the 21st Century: Episode 36 of #FacingComingStorms-- "Inside U.S. Defence Uncertainty."

projects21.org/2025/10/30/e...
Episode 36: Inside U.S. Defence Uncertainty
Power without a plan: what happens when the world’s strongest military hits pause? In this episode of Facing Coming Storms, Pete Apps sits down with Nikolas Gvosdev, Senior Fellow at the …
projects21.org

Interesting take. Certainly the notion of the Gulf states providing the capital for the new projects and the #middlecorridor in partnership with the U.S. (providing the security and the tech). Something @reziemba.bsky.social and @soliman.bsky.social are following ...
asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/tr...
Trump's Belt and Road: Abraham Accords reach Central Asia
Middle East initiative becomes new US tool for global power projection
asia.nikkei.com

Tokayev continues the Nazarbayev tradition of a multi vector approach given Kazakhstan’s position as a #keystone state.
timesca.com/tokayev-in-m...
Tokayev in Moscow: Balancing Friendship and Strategy - The Times Of Central Asia
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev begins a state visit to Russia in Moscow today, accompanied by a carefully calibrated message of diplomatic continuity.
timesca.com

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

This conflict has really demonstrated the say-do gap between political forces and business interests.
❗️Baltic companies secretly refuel Russia's shadow fleet - LRT

Two tankers, the Rina and Zircone, refuelled 159 ships linked to Moscow's shadow fleet in 10 months, helping it evade Western sanctions.

the water-food-energy nexus will continue to manifest itself in politics all around the world. 2/

#trilemma is real. From the strain on Tehran's water infrastructure, with #Pezeshkian raising the possibility of evacuating people from the capital, to Virginia governor-elect @SpanbergerForVA talking about a statewide energy crisis from data center demand, 1/

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

So my read of this is that Greece and Hungary reach deals with the U.S. on matters of interest to the Trump administration, and get somewhat of a pass on their ongoing arrangements with Russia in other areas.
Reported US exemption for Hungarian purchases of Russian oil in context of a set of bilateral coordinations including making Hungary center of eastern Europe SMR push. Also includes switch in nuclear fuel to Westinghouse from Russia.

www.state.gov/releases/off...
U.S.-Hungary Relations Reach New Heights - United States Department of State
Under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, U.S.-Hungary relations continue to reach new heights of cooperation and achievement. This partnership is built on mut...
www.state.gov

perhaps a sign that just as in Africa, Central Asia would welcome more joint U.S.-Gulf investments in the mining sector. Major question is extent of follow-up and focus after leaders depart Washington and #POTUS attention goes to other matters ... 2/

So my first read of the C5+1 summit: good vibes, clear statement of U.S. interest in Central Asia, but still largely aspirational rather than firm concrete commitments. Uzbekistan president proposing a Central Asia partnership fund; Kazakhstan joining Abraham Accords ... 1/

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Reported US exemption for Hungarian purchases of Russian oil in context of a set of bilateral coordinations including making Hungary center of eastern Europe SMR push. Also includes switch in nuclear fuel to Westinghouse from Russia.

www.state.gov/releases/off...
U.S.-Hungary Relations Reach New Heights - United States Department of State
Under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, U.S.-Hungary relations continue to reach new heights of cooperation and achievement. This partnership is built on mut...
www.state.gov

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Thinking about NATO obligations in terms of spending on resilience and self-reliance ... www.defensenews.com/opinion/2025...
NATO’s spending pledge is no invitation for creative accounting
Opinion: Nobody knows exactly what counts toward a 1.5% target, and the first progress check slated in the summit declaration is only set for 2029.
www.defensenews.com

At @fpri.bsky.social @soliman.bsky.social discusses rise of "America, Inc." as government no longer trusts markets to self-correct in critical areas ... www.fpri.org/article/2025...
America, Incorporated: The Era of the Portfolio State - Foreign Policy Research Institute
For much of the last century, the American state has intervened directly in the economy only in times of extraordinary crisis. During World War II, Washington
www.fpri.org

– a factor that explains some of his contradictory statements on Ukraine. It also fuels concerns in Moscow that Trump may be willing to abandon foundational arms-control agreements, raising doubts about his ability to broker or enforce any potential peace settlement." In Asia Times ... 2/

James Davis: "Russian officials ... express growing confusion over who in Washington is truly formulating policy and who is providing intelligence. This, they say, reinforces their impression that Trump is not receiving high-quality briefings ... 1/