Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University.
Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more
Economics
67%
Business
13%
... budget at a faster pace than elsewhere. It’s also about vulnerability.
The more this "UK premium" embeds itself in the public finances, the higher the risk of a self-feeding vicious cycle.
#economy #Markets #UKBudget2025 #UKEconomy #UKBudget #uk @financialtimes.com
2 of 2
The more this "UK premium" embeds itself in the public finances, the higher the risk of a self-feeding vicious cycle.
#economy #Markets #UKBudget2025 #UKEconomy #UKBudget #uk @financialtimes.com
2 of 2
A sobering chart from Martin Wolf (below).
The gap between UK borrowing costs and other advanced economies isn't just persisting—it’s widening: A stark reminder of the "UK premium" currently baked into markets.
This isn't just about debt service costs eating into the budget at ...
1 of 2
The gap between UK borrowing costs and other advanced economies isn't just persisting—it’s widening: A stark reminder of the "UK premium" currently baked into markets.
This isn't just about debt service costs eating into the budget at ...
1 of 2
While on the UK budget, here are some summary charts from the Financial Times.
#economy #Markets #budget #UKBudget2025 @financialtimes.com
#economy #Markets #budget #UKBudget2025 @financialtimes.com
FYI, the link to my take on the UK budget:
www.ft.com/content/de60...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #budget #ukbudget #ukbudget2025
Remove media
www.ft.com/content/de60...
@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #budget #ukbudget #ukbudget2025
Remove media
National Summary
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
... shutdown having played a role.
Inflation: Input price pressures continue to rise, driven in part by healthcare and tariff-related costs.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
#economy #federalreserve #jobs #inflation #markets
3 of 3
Inflation: Input price pressures continue to rise, driven in part by healthcare and tariff-related costs.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
#economy #federalreserve #jobs #inflation #markets
3 of 3
... of persistent, moderate pressures on both sides of the central bank’s dual mandate. Specifically:
Labor Market: Companies appear somewhat more hesitant to hire. This extends the first element of the current "low hire, low fire" dynamic, with the recently ended government ...
2 of 3
Labor Market: Companies appear somewhat more hesitant to hire. This extends the first element of the current "low hire, low fire" dynamic, with the recently ended government ...
2 of 3
Good morning, and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone celebrating.
After yesterday's UK budget rush of news, I wanted to circle back to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book (link below).
The bottom-up data from the Fed’s twelve regional banks aligns with the hypothesis...
1 of 3
After yesterday's UK budget rush of news, I wanted to circle back to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book (link below).
The bottom-up data from the Fed’s twelve regional banks aligns with the hypothesis...
1 of 3
Watch CNBC's full interview with Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and former PIMCO CEO, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss his expectations for Fed rate cuts, whether Kevin Hassett would be a strong choice to lea...
www.cnbc.com
Please find below the links to this morning's conversation with Sara Eisen, David Faber and Carl Quintanilla on CNBC's Squawk on the Street.
Thanks Carl, David and Sara for having me on your show.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy @cnbc.com
Thanks Carl, David and Sara for having me on your show.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy @cnbc.com
Building on my earlier FT analysis, the unusual run-up to the UK budget continues with the premature publication of the OBR's assessment of the proposed measures, as well as the overall economic context.
The immediate market reactions include higher government bond yields and a weaker currency.
The immediate market reactions include higher government bond yields and a weaker currency.
... is to weaker growth, higher borrowing rates, or adverse external shocks.
The smaller the headroom, the tighter the fiscal tightrope the UK is walking.
#UKBudget #FiscalPolicy #Economy #Headroom #UK #budget @financialtimes.com
2 of 2
The smaller the headroom, the tighter the fiscal tightrope the UK is walking.
#UKBudget #FiscalPolicy #Economy #Headroom #UK #budget @financialtimes.com
2 of 2
Speaking of the UK budget, many will pay attention to the magnitude of the “headroom.” This gives a feel for how much room the UK has to forsake revenues or raise spending without breaking the fiscal rules and, also, how vulnerable the fiscal stance...
1 of 2
1 of 2
What to watch for in the Budget
Investors taken by surprise as fiscal watchdog publishes data prematurely
www.ft.com
UK Budget Day is Here.
As we await the details of this major fiscal event, here’s the link to live coverage via the Financial Times’ live blog (including my analysis on the run-up to today’s announcements):
www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
#economy #budget #uk #ukbudget #markets @financialtimes.com
As we await the details of this major fiscal event, here’s the link to live coverage via the Financial Times’ live blog (including my analysis on the run-up to today’s announcements):
www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
#economy #budget #uk #ukbudget #markets @financialtimes.com
According to Bloomberg, “National Economic Council Director Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner for the next Fed chair.”
#FederalReserve #economy #markets
#FederalReserve #economy #markets
...stark by the one-month view:
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve
The probability was over 90% at the end of October before collapsing and rebounding.
Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility.
So much for "forward policy guidance" fostering stability/predictability
#economy #markets #federalreserve
This four-day chart—yes, only four days—illustrates just how violently the market has repriced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. The implied probability surged from the low 30s to over 90% just an hour ago, and currently sits at 87%
It's a remarkable move, made even more...
It's a remarkable move, made even more...
...
Current Struggles: The current conditions component sank to its lowest level since 2021.
Future Doubts: The forward-looking index slid back to its April 2025 low.
The culprit? The mix of lingering price worries and growing employment income insecurity
#economy #markets #growth #confidence
2 of 2
Current Struggles: The current conditions component sank to its lowest level since 2021.
Future Doubts: The forward-looking index slid back to its April 2025 low.
The culprit? The mix of lingering price worries and growing employment income insecurity
#economy #markets #growth #confidence
2 of 2
The just-released US consumer sentiment numbers are in.
Three disappointments overshadow optimism from positive revisions to prior data:
The Headline Miss: The overall index landed at 88.7, well short of the 93.3 consensus forecast.
...
1 of 2
Three disappointments overshadow optimism from positive revisions to prior data:
The Headline Miss: The overall index landed at 88.7, well short of the 93.3 consensus forecast.
...
1 of 2
... Deep vertical integration, spanning hardware and chips to the final application layer;
An innovation-driven culture rooted in engineering excellence, known for encouraging long-term, high-risk "moonshot" projects and empowering employees with autonomy for creative exploration...
2 of 3
An innovation-driven culture rooted in engineering excellence, known for encouraging long-term, high-risk "moonshot" projects and empowering employees with autonomy for creative exploration...
2 of 3
Adding to my earlier posts on this:
Today's continuing market excitement surrounding the launch of Gemini 3, while significant, only scratches the surface of Alphabet/Google's competitive advantage.
The company’s strength is rooted in several powerful structural edges, including...
1 of 3
Today's continuing market excitement surrounding the launch of Gemini 3, while significant, only scratches the surface of Alphabet/Google's competitive advantage.
The company’s strength is rooted in several powerful structural edges, including...
1 of 3
... other releases this morning (contracting ADP weekly job growth and well-behaved PPI) is driving US government yields lower (the 10-year is now trading at 4.01%).
#economy #USretaill #FederalReserve #AI #inflation #markets
#economy #USretaill #FederalReserve #AI #inflation #markets
... households, in particular, are facing significant headwinds.
The AI economic lifeline (massive spending related to infrastructure and technology, as well as the productivity promise) emerges as a disproportionate driver of GDP growth.
The combination of this retail sales data and ...
2 of 3
The AI economic lifeline (massive spending related to infrastructure and technology, as well as the productivity promise) emerges as a disproportionate driver of GDP growth.
The combination of this retail sales data and ...
2 of 3
This morning's US retail sales data -- an overall growth of 0.2% (below the 0.4% consensus forecast) and a "control group" contraction of 0.1% -- are consistent with two actionable hypotheses:
Greater consumer stress is expected as lower-income ...
1 of 3
Greater consumer stress is expected as lower-income ...
1 of 3
... health of the labor market rise.
2. The Deeper Divergence: The decoupling of GDP growth from employment raises tricky economic, political, and social questions for the year ahead.
#economy #FederalReserve #inflation #LaborMarket #SFFed #inflation #jobs
2 of 2
2. The Deeper Divergence: The decoupling of GDP growth from employment raises tricky economic, political, and social questions for the year ahead.
#economy #FederalReserve #inflation #LaborMarket #SFFed #inflation #jobs
2 of 2
H/T to Torsten Slok for this SF Fed chart illustrating demand-side influences overtaking supply-side factors as the primary driver of US inflation.
Why this matters:
1. The Fed: Inflation driven more by demand than supply factors argues against a rate cut just as worries mount about the ...
1 of 2
Why this matters:
1. The Fed: Inflation driven more by demand than supply factors argues against a rate cut just as worries mount about the ...
1 of 2
The "Gemini Effect" amplifies the outperformance:
This CNBC chart illustrates how Google/Alphabet (at another record high today) has outperformed the rest of the "Magnificent 7" tech cohort.
This outperformance is being reinforced by the widely praised reception of Gemini 3 (rolled out last week).
This CNBC chart illustrates how Google/Alphabet (at another record high today) has outperformed the rest of the "Magnificent 7" tech cohort.
This outperformance is being reinforced by the widely praised reception of Gemini 3 (rolled out last week).
...as the central bank at the core of the global payments system.
It reflects shutdown-disrupted data, a dual-mandate squeeze, a lame-duck Chair, and the lack of a clear strategic framework from the world’s most powerful central bank, which has been overly data-dependent for a protracted period.
It reflects shutdown-disrupted data, a dual-mandate squeeze, a lame-duck Chair, and the lack of a clear strategic framework from the world’s most powerful central bank, which has been overly data-dependent for a protracted period.
Whiplash in December Fed rate expectations is stunning.
As this Bbg chart shows, the probability of a 25bp cut went from >90% to <30% and is heading back up strongly—all in one month.
This kind of wild volatility is the opposite of the "predictability and stability" the Fed strives for,especially...
As this Bbg chart shows, the probability of a 25bp cut went from >90% to <30% and is heading back up strongly—all in one month.
This kind of wild volatility is the opposite of the "predictability and stability" the Fed strives for,especially...
... between the two nations and position for a strategic peace? Or do they use this window to aggressively reduce their sensitivity to Chinese markets and suppliers?
#economy #markets #China #Tesla #EVs #GlobalEconomy #SupplyChain #USChina
3 of 3
#economy #markets #China #Tesla #EVs #GlobalEconomy #SupplyChain #USChina
3 of 3
On the demand side, it highlights the complexities facing US companies in an overall Chinese sales environment that is not as robust as it was.
All this is to say that US companies face a stark strategic choice. Do they buy into the current tactical geopolitical peace ...
2 of 3
All this is to say that US companies face a stark strategic choice. Do they buy into the current tactical geopolitical peace ...
2 of 3