Economics
77%
Political science
8%
EU, USA, Schweiz: Wer ist hier eigentlich im Niedergang?
Hier geht es zum heutigen Produktivitätshäppchen:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Hier geht es zum heutigen Produktivitätshäppchen:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Hat Spaß gemacht, mit @ronzheimer.bsky.social über die Rente zu sprechen - auch wenn das Thema aktuell eher traurig ist...
RONZHEIMER Podcast: Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com/episode/0NTi...
RONZHEIMER Podcast: Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com/episode/0NTi...
Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com
Sehr zu empfehlen!
Reposted by Robert Lehmann, Guido Baldi
Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com
Hat Spaß gemacht, mit @ronzheimer.bsky.social über die Rente zu sprechen - auch wenn das Thema aktuell eher traurig ist...
RONZHEIMER Podcast: Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com/episode/0NTi...
RONZHEIMER Podcast: Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com/episode/0NTi...
Gemäss dem Flash-BIP des Seco ist die Schweizer Wirtschaftsleistung im dritten Quartal um 0,5 Prozent geschrumpft. Vor allem im chemisch-pharmazeutischen Gewerbe kam es offenbar zu einem Rückgang der Wertschöpfung.
www.seco.admin.ch/seco/de/home...
www.seco.admin.ch/seco/de/home...
Is human imitation the right goal for technology?
Erik Brynjolfsson, Stanford academic and author, explains how AI and people can complement each other
www.ft.com
Indeed, we should try to build AI that complements workers' skills.
Erik Brynjolfsson...explains how AI and people can complement each other
www.ft.com/content/1e5e...
By the way, I argued in a similar way almost ten years ago in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung😀
www.nzz.ch/meinung/inno...
Erik Brynjolfsson...explains how AI and people can complement each other
www.ft.com/content/1e5e...
By the way, I argued in a similar way almost ten years ago in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung😀
www.nzz.ch/meinung/inno...
Trump beschleunigt Veränderungen bloss: Die Schweiz und Deutschland sollten sich anpassen
Deal hin oder her: Donald Trump beschleunigt Entwicklungen, die die Welt verändern. Nur die Schweizer sind offenbar der Ansicht, sie könnten sich diesen Veränderungen entziehen. Doch das geht an die S...
www.nzz.ch
In der Tat: "Die Schweiz schläft eingelullt im Irrglauben, ihr Wohlstand sei selbstverständlich und alles müsse so bleiben wie bisher."
"Ein Jahr Trump 2.0 und die Welt: Die Schweiz schläft" von Peter Fischer.
www.nzz.ch/meinung/ein-...
"Ein Jahr Trump 2.0 und die Welt: Die Schweiz schläft" von Peter Fischer.
www.nzz.ch/meinung/ein-...
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a high-level conference to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. Featuring an opening discussion with Jo...
www.piie.com
To anyone interested in the US economy and monetary policy, I highly recommend this conference at the Peterson Institute for International Economics: Central bank independence in practice
www.piie.com/events/2025/...
www.piie.com/events/2025/...
The new globalisation paradox
In the age of Donald Trump, national autonomy requires deeper integration. Brazil shows why
www.economist.com
I believe it's worth thinking carefully about this article in The Economist (irrespective of whether you agree with the conclusion or not).
"The new globalisation paradox: In the age of Donald Trump, national autonomy requires deeper integration."
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
"The new globalisation paradox: In the age of Donald Trump, national autonomy requires deeper integration."
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Iikka Korhonen
Indeed, justifying the current US tariffs with a "national emergency" does not make sense. This is a good article by Gene M. Grossman and Alan O. Sykes.
The flawed rationale behind America’s “reciprocal tariffs”
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The flawed rationale behind America’s “reciprocal tariffs”
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Heute ist unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer erschienen. Der Barometerwert hat sich gegenüber September verringert.
„Der Weg zum Aufschwung bleibt holprig, auch weil die Weltwirtschaft als Wachstumsimpuls für die exportorientierte deutsche Industrie ausfällt“, resümiert Konjunkturexperte Guido Baldi.
„Der Weg zum Aufschwung bleibt holprig, auch weil die Weltwirtschaft als Wachstumsimpuls für die exportorientierte deutsche Industrie ausfällt“, resümiert Konjunkturexperte Guido Baldi.
Produktivitätshäppchen: Bevölkerungswachstum und Wirtschaftsentwicklung
Die hohe Zuwanderung in die Schweiz ist in der öffentlichen Debatte wieder einmal sehr präsent.
Hier ein paar kurze Überlegungen von mir dazu:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Die hohe Zuwanderung in die Schweiz ist in der öffentlichen Debatte wieder einmal sehr präsent.
Hier ein paar kurze Überlegungen von mir dazu:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling.
www.nytimes.com
We should closely follow consumption inequality in the coming months. It's relevant for inequality as such and for the macroeconomy.
"The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending...the highest share since the late 1980s."
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
"The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending...the highest share since the late 1980s."
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
Reposted by Iikka Korhonen
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Oct 17
Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth
The world has become dangerously dependent on American stocks, writes the former IMF chief economist
www.economist.com
The global economy has been remarkably robust this year. But the situation remains fragile. Good to see that Gita Gopinath reminds us of the potential effects of a market crash.
"Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth":
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
"Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth":
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Oct 12
What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong
People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts
www.ft.com
Graduates and artificial intelligence. It's certainly worth thinking carefully about these issues. Irrespective of this particular and interesting article, we should closely follow labor market developments. Anyway, I think it is premature to draw conclusions now.
www.ft.com/content/ea9e...
www.ft.com/content/ea9e...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Oct 8
The populist shadow hanging over central banks and QE
The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities. The controversy could limit options in future crises
www.ft.com
Challenging times for central banks! A good overview with a lot of food for thought by Sam Fleming, Claire Jones and Olaf Storbeck in the Financial Times.
"The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities."
www.ft.com/content/055f...
"The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities."
www.ft.com/content/055f...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Oct 6
Europeans need to learn to love risk
A culture of financial caution stymies innovation and prevents the continent from competing with the US and China
www.ft.com
Indeed, Europeans need to learn to love risk. Although I do not fully agree with Martin Sandbu in his opinion piece, his basic argument is certainly right, in my opinion.
www.ft.com/content/1100...
www.ft.com/content/1100...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 30
Other people’s money, and the problem with Mileism
The US Treasury needs to get Argentina on a better policy path before it blows through the Exchange Stabilization Fund
www.ft.com
A very interesting analysis of Argentina's current problems by Brad Setser and Stephen Paduano.
And the ending is great...
www.ft.com/content/5f4b...
And the ending is great...
www.ft.com/content/5f4b...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 30
Heute ist unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer erschienen. Der Barometerwert erhöht sich langsam, aber stetig.
Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) legt im September deutlich zu und liegt nun bei 96,3 Punkten, nach 92 Punkten im August.
Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) legt im September deutlich zu und liegt nun bei 96,3 Punkten, nach 92 Punkten im August.
Reposted by Iikka Korhonen
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 28
The international progressives: A source of hope for the world trading system
Leave it to the Swiss to find the only effective response to President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Swatch, their famous eponymous watch company, issued a special commemorative watch with the three an...
www.piie.com
For anyone interested in world trade, I highly recommend this excellent text by Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics).
"The likely future is a combination of most nations persevering with pragmatism and grit under the existing trading system"
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
"The likely future is a combination of most nations persevering with pragmatism and grit under the existing trading system"
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 19
Would an all-out trade war be better?
Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own
www.economist.com
While I only partly agree with The Economist, this article certainly has a point!
"Would an all-out trade war be better? Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own"
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
"Would an all-out trade war be better? Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own"
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 16
Switzerland’s US tech ‘whale’
Swiss National Bank has more than $42bn invested in Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Meta
www.ft.com
Many people are unaware of this – not only abroad, but, surprisingly, also in Switzerland!
The SNB "has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, ...Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn."
www.ft.com/content/60a9...
The SNB "has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, ...Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn."
www.ft.com/content/60a9...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 16
We are looking forward to this webinar!
Opportunities and challenges of better interactions between military and civilian R&D
Dominique Foray (Prof EPFL, Chair of Economics and Management of Innovation; Swiss Science Council)
⏲️ Sep 29, 12.00-13.00 CEST
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/eNP82ZTuwV
Opportunities and challenges of better interactions between military and civilian R&D
Dominique Foray (Prof EPFL, Chair of Economics and Management of Innovation; Swiss Science Council)
⏲️ Sep 29, 12.00-13.00 CEST
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/eNP82ZTuwV
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 15
I am looking forward to this webinar with Spyros Andreopoulos, whom I appreciate a lot!
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 13
This does not look sustainable!
"France and the UK have increased public spending on over-65s more steeply than most other countries"
"France and Britain are in thrall to pensioners" by John Burn-Murdoch:
www.ft.com/content/d419...
"France and the UK have increased public spending on over-65s more steeply than most other countries"
"France and Britain are in thrall to pensioners" by John Burn-Murdoch:
www.ft.com/content/d419...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 11
Welcome back, inflation?
In the United States, inflation in August was somewhat higher than most expected (0.4%).
One should always be careful. But data for August reinforced the view that the US might have entered an episode with stagflationary characteristics.
www.bls.gov/news.release...
In the United States, inflation in August was somewhat higher than most expected (0.4%).
One should always be careful. But data for August reinforced the view that the US might have entered an episode with stagflationary characteristics.
www.bls.gov/news.release...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 10
Interesting developments in Switzerland. The SNB starts to publish a summary of its monetary policy meetings. It will be interesting to observe how extensive these summaries are and whether/how these summaries will be discussed in public and among market participants.
www.snb.ch/en/publicati...
www.snb.ch/en/publicati...
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 8
Wir freuen uns auf dieses Webinar mit Dr. Adhurim Haxhimusa von der Fachhochschule Graubünden.
Webinar: Das Swiss REco Dashboard: Regionalwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Echtzeit messen
⏲️ 25. September, 12:00 – 13:00 Uhr
💻 Online
ANMELDUNG: forms.office.com/r/T6yAmpLR59
Webinar: Das Swiss REco Dashboard: Regionalwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Echtzeit messen
⏲️ 25. September, 12:00 – 13:00 Uhr
💻 Online
ANMELDUNG: forms.office.com/r/T6yAmpLR59
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 5
Die Arbeitslosigkeit hat sich leicht erhöht. Mit 4,3 Prozent ist sie aber immer noch niedrig.
Eine Zinssenkung im September dürfte so gut wie sicher sein. Die Rufe nach weiteren Zinssenkungen dürften mit dem heutigen Bericht wohl Auftrieb erhalten - zumindest bis zum nächsten Inflationsbericht!
Eine Zinssenkung im September dürfte so gut wie sicher sein. Die Rufe nach weiteren Zinssenkungen dürften mit dem heutigen Bericht wohl Auftrieb erhalten - zumindest bis zum nächsten Inflationsbericht!
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
· Sep 5
Der US-Arbeitsmarkt sendet wenig überraschend weitere enttäuschende Signale aus. Wie das BLS heute berichtet, wurden im August nur 22'000 neue Jobs geschaffen. Im Juni kam es (abwärtsrevidiert) sogar zu einem Verlust an Stellen und im Juli nur zu 79'000 neuen Stellen (leicht aufwärtsrevidiert).