EU, USA, Schweiz: Wer ist hier eigentlich im Niedergang?
Hier geht es zum heutigen Produktivitätshäppchen:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Hier geht es zum heutigen Produktivitätshäppchen:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
November 19, 2025 at 1:18 PM
EU, USA, Schweiz: Wer ist hier eigentlich im Niedergang?
Hier geht es zum heutigen Produktivitätshäppchen:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Hier geht es zum heutigen Produktivitätshäppchen:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Sehr zu empfehlen!
Hat Spaß gemacht, mit @ronzheimer.bsky.social über die Rente zu sprechen - auch wenn das Thema aktuell eher traurig ist...
RONZHEIMER Podcast: Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com/episode/0NTi...
RONZHEIMER Podcast: Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com/episode/0NTi...
Deutschland sitzt auf der Demografie-Bombe. Mit Andreas Peichl
open.spotify.com
November 18, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Sehr zu empfehlen!
Gemäss dem Flash-BIP des Seco ist die Schweizer Wirtschaftsleistung im dritten Quartal um 0,5 Prozent geschrumpft. Vor allem im chemisch-pharmazeutischen Gewerbe kam es offenbar zu einem Rückgang der Wertschöpfung.
www.seco.admin.ch/seco/de/home...
www.seco.admin.ch/seco/de/home...
November 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Gemäss dem Flash-BIP des Seco ist die Schweizer Wirtschaftsleistung im dritten Quartal um 0,5 Prozent geschrumpft. Vor allem im chemisch-pharmazeutischen Gewerbe kam es offenbar zu einem Rückgang der Wertschöpfung.
www.seco.admin.ch/seco/de/home...
www.seco.admin.ch/seco/de/home...
Indeed, we should try to build AI that complements workers' skills.
Erik Brynjolfsson...explains how AI and people can complement each other
www.ft.com/content/1e5e...
By the way, I argued in a similar way almost ten years ago in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung😀
www.nzz.ch/meinung/inno...
Erik Brynjolfsson...explains how AI and people can complement each other
www.ft.com/content/1e5e...
By the way, I argued in a similar way almost ten years ago in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung😀
www.nzz.ch/meinung/inno...
Is human imitation the right goal for technology?
Erik Brynjolfsson, Stanford academic and author, explains how AI and people can complement each other
www.ft.com
November 11, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Indeed, we should try to build AI that complements workers' skills.
Erik Brynjolfsson...explains how AI and people can complement each other
www.ft.com/content/1e5e...
By the way, I argued in a similar way almost ten years ago in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung😀
www.nzz.ch/meinung/inno...
Erik Brynjolfsson...explains how AI and people can complement each other
www.ft.com/content/1e5e...
By the way, I argued in a similar way almost ten years ago in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung😀
www.nzz.ch/meinung/inno...
In der Tat: "Die Schweiz schläft eingelullt im Irrglauben, ihr Wohlstand sei selbstverständlich und alles müsse so bleiben wie bisher."
"Ein Jahr Trump 2.0 und die Welt: Die Schweiz schläft" von Peter Fischer.
www.nzz.ch/meinung/ein-...
"Ein Jahr Trump 2.0 und die Welt: Die Schweiz schläft" von Peter Fischer.
www.nzz.ch/meinung/ein-...
Trump beschleunigt Veränderungen bloss: Die Schweiz und Deutschland sollten sich anpassen
Deal hin oder her: Donald Trump beschleunigt Entwicklungen, die die Welt verändern. Nur die Schweizer sind offenbar der Ansicht, sie könnten sich diesen Veränderungen entziehen. Doch das geht an die S...
www.nzz.ch
November 8, 2025 at 11:09 AM
In der Tat: "Die Schweiz schläft eingelullt im Irrglauben, ihr Wohlstand sei selbstverständlich und alles müsse so bleiben wie bisher."
"Ein Jahr Trump 2.0 und die Welt: Die Schweiz schläft" von Peter Fischer.
www.nzz.ch/meinung/ein-...
"Ein Jahr Trump 2.0 und die Welt: Die Schweiz schläft" von Peter Fischer.
www.nzz.ch/meinung/ein-...
To anyone interested in the US economy and monetary policy, I highly recommend this conference at the Peterson Institute for International Economics: Central bank independence in practice
www.piie.com/events/2025/...
www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a high-level conference to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. Featuring an opening discussion with Jo...
www.piie.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:12 PM
To anyone interested in the US economy and monetary policy, I highly recommend this conference at the Peterson Institute for International Economics: Central bank independence in practice
www.piie.com/events/2025/...
www.piie.com/events/2025/...
I believe it's worth thinking carefully about this article in The Economist (irrespective of whether you agree with the conclusion or not).
"The new globalisation paradox: In the age of Donald Trump, national autonomy requires deeper integration."
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
"The new globalisation paradox: In the age of Donald Trump, national autonomy requires deeper integration."
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
The new globalisation paradox
In the age of Donald Trump, national autonomy requires deeper integration. Brazil shows why
www.economist.com
October 30, 2025 at 10:38 PM
I believe it's worth thinking carefully about this article in The Economist (irrespective of whether you agree with the conclusion or not).
"The new globalisation paradox: In the age of Donald Trump, national autonomy requires deeper integration."
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
"The new globalisation paradox: In the age of Donald Trump, national autonomy requires deeper integration."
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Indeed, justifying the current US tariffs with a "national emergency" does not make sense. This is a good article by Gene M. Grossman and Alan O. Sykes.
The flawed rationale behind America’s “reciprocal tariffs”
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The flawed rationale behind America’s “reciprocal tariffs”
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
October 29, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Indeed, justifying the current US tariffs with a "national emergency" does not make sense. This is a good article by Gene M. Grossman and Alan O. Sykes.
The flawed rationale behind America’s “reciprocal tariffs”
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The flawed rationale behind America’s “reciprocal tariffs”
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Heute ist unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer erschienen. Der Barometerwert hat sich gegenüber September verringert.
„Der Weg zum Aufschwung bleibt holprig, auch weil die Weltwirtschaft als Wachstumsimpuls für die exportorientierte deutsche Industrie ausfällt“, resümiert Konjunkturexperte Guido Baldi.
„Der Weg zum Aufschwung bleibt holprig, auch weil die Weltwirtschaft als Wachstumsimpuls für die exportorientierte deutsche Industrie ausfällt“, resümiert Konjunkturexperte Guido Baldi.
October 29, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Heute ist unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer erschienen. Der Barometerwert hat sich gegenüber September verringert.
„Der Weg zum Aufschwung bleibt holprig, auch weil die Weltwirtschaft als Wachstumsimpuls für die exportorientierte deutsche Industrie ausfällt“, resümiert Konjunkturexperte Guido Baldi.
„Der Weg zum Aufschwung bleibt holprig, auch weil die Weltwirtschaft als Wachstumsimpuls für die exportorientierte deutsche Industrie ausfällt“, resümiert Konjunkturexperte Guido Baldi.
Produktivitätshäppchen: Bevölkerungswachstum und Wirtschaftsentwicklung
Die hohe Zuwanderung in die Schweiz ist in der öffentlichen Debatte wieder einmal sehr präsent.
Hier ein paar kurze Überlegungen von mir dazu:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Die hohe Zuwanderung in die Schweiz ist in der öffentlichen Debatte wieder einmal sehr präsent.
Hier ein paar kurze Überlegungen von mir dazu:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
October 22, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Produktivitätshäppchen: Bevölkerungswachstum und Wirtschaftsentwicklung
Die hohe Zuwanderung in die Schweiz ist in der öffentlichen Debatte wieder einmal sehr präsent.
Hier ein paar kurze Überlegungen von mir dazu:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
Die hohe Zuwanderung in die Schweiz ist in der öffentlichen Debatte wieder einmal sehr präsent.
Hier ein paar kurze Überlegungen von mir dazu:
open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
We should closely follow consumption inequality in the coming months. It's relevant for inequality as such and for the macroeconomy.
"The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending...the highest share since the late 1980s."
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
"The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending...the highest share since the late 1980s."
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling.
www.nytimes.com
October 21, 2025 at 9:39 PM
We should closely follow consumption inequality in the coming months. It's relevant for inequality as such and for the macroeconomy.
"The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending...the highest share since the late 1980s."
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
"The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending...the highest share since the late 1980s."
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
The global economy has been remarkably robust this year. But the situation remains fragile. Good to see that Gita Gopinath reminds us of the potential effects of a market crash.
"Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth":
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
"Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth":
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth
The world has become dangerously dependent on American stocks, writes the former IMF chief economist
www.economist.com
October 17, 2025 at 8:24 PM
The global economy has been remarkably robust this year. But the situation remains fragile. Good to see that Gita Gopinath reminds us of the potential effects of a market crash.
"Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth":
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
"Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth":
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
Graduates and artificial intelligence. It's certainly worth thinking carefully about these issues. Irrespective of this particular and interesting article, we should closely follow labor market developments. Anyway, I think it is premature to draw conclusions now.
www.ft.com/content/ea9e...
www.ft.com/content/ea9e...
What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong
People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts
www.ft.com
October 12, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Graduates and artificial intelligence. It's certainly worth thinking carefully about these issues. Irrespective of this particular and interesting article, we should closely follow labor market developments. Anyway, I think it is premature to draw conclusions now.
www.ft.com/content/ea9e...
www.ft.com/content/ea9e...
Challenging times for central banks! A good overview with a lot of food for thought by Sam Fleming, Claire Jones and Olaf Storbeck in the Financial Times.
"The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities."
www.ft.com/content/055f...
"The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities."
www.ft.com/content/055f...
The populist shadow hanging over central banks and QE
The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities. The controversy could limit options in future crises
www.ft.com
October 8, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Challenging times for central banks! A good overview with a lot of food for thought by Sam Fleming, Claire Jones and Olaf Storbeck in the Financial Times.
"The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities."
www.ft.com/content/055f...
"The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities."
www.ft.com/content/055f...
Indeed, Europeans need to learn to love risk. Although I do not fully agree with Martin Sandbu in his opinion piece, his basic argument is certainly right, in my opinion.
www.ft.com/content/1100...
www.ft.com/content/1100...
Europeans need to learn to love risk
A culture of financial caution stymies innovation and prevents the continent from competing with the US and China
www.ft.com
October 6, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Indeed, Europeans need to learn to love risk. Although I do not fully agree with Martin Sandbu in his opinion piece, his basic argument is certainly right, in my opinion.
www.ft.com/content/1100...
www.ft.com/content/1100...
A very interesting analysis of Argentina's current problems by Brad Setser and Stephen Paduano.
And the ending is great...
www.ft.com/content/5f4b...
And the ending is great...
www.ft.com/content/5f4b...
Other people’s money, and the problem with Mileism
The US Treasury needs to get Argentina on a better policy path before it blows through the Exchange Stabilization Fund
www.ft.com
September 30, 2025 at 4:22 PM
A very interesting analysis of Argentina's current problems by Brad Setser and Stephen Paduano.
And the ending is great...
www.ft.com/content/5f4b...
And the ending is great...
www.ft.com/content/5f4b...
Heute ist unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer erschienen. Der Barometerwert erhöht sich langsam, aber stetig.
Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) legt im September deutlich zu und liegt nun bei 96,3 Punkten, nach 92 Punkten im August.
Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) legt im September deutlich zu und liegt nun bei 96,3 Punkten, nach 92 Punkten im August.
September 30, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Heute ist unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer erschienen. Der Barometerwert erhöht sich langsam, aber stetig.
Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) legt im September deutlich zu und liegt nun bei 96,3 Punkten, nach 92 Punkten im August.
Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) legt im September deutlich zu und liegt nun bei 96,3 Punkten, nach 92 Punkten im August.
For anyone interested in world trade, I highly recommend this excellent text by Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics).
"The likely future is a combination of most nations persevering with pragmatism and grit under the existing trading system"
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
"The likely future is a combination of most nations persevering with pragmatism and grit under the existing trading system"
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The international progressives: A source of hope for the world trading system
Leave it to the Swiss to find the only effective response to President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Swatch, their famous eponymous watch company, issued a special commemorative watch with the three an...
www.piie.com
September 28, 2025 at 6:50 PM
For anyone interested in world trade, I highly recommend this excellent text by Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics).
"The likely future is a combination of most nations persevering with pragmatism and grit under the existing trading system"
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
"The likely future is a combination of most nations persevering with pragmatism and grit under the existing trading system"
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
While I only partly agree with The Economist, this article certainly has a point!
"Would an all-out trade war be better? Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own"
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
"Would an all-out trade war be better? Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own"
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Would an all-out trade war be better?
Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own
www.economist.com
September 19, 2025 at 7:09 PM
While I only partly agree with The Economist, this article certainly has a point!
"Would an all-out trade war be better? Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own"
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
"Would an all-out trade war be better? Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own"
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Many people are unaware of this – not only abroad, but, surprisingly, also in Switzerland!
The SNB "has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, ...Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn."
www.ft.com/content/60a9...
The SNB "has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, ...Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn."
www.ft.com/content/60a9...
Switzerland’s US tech ‘whale’
Swiss National Bank has more than $42bn invested in Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Meta
www.ft.com
September 16, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Many people are unaware of this – not only abroad, but, surprisingly, also in Switzerland!
The SNB "has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, ...Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn."
www.ft.com/content/60a9...
The SNB "has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, ...Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn."
www.ft.com/content/60a9...
We are looking forward to this webinar!
Opportunities and challenges of better interactions between military and civilian R&D
Dominique Foray (Prof EPFL, Chair of Economics and Management of Innovation; Swiss Science Council)
⏲️ Sep 29, 12.00-13.00 CEST
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/eNP82ZTuwV
Opportunities and challenges of better interactions between military and civilian R&D
Dominique Foray (Prof EPFL, Chair of Economics and Management of Innovation; Swiss Science Council)
⏲️ Sep 29, 12.00-13.00 CEST
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/eNP82ZTuwV
September 16, 2025 at 7:34 AM
We are looking forward to this webinar!
Opportunities and challenges of better interactions between military and civilian R&D
Dominique Foray (Prof EPFL, Chair of Economics and Management of Innovation; Swiss Science Council)
⏲️ Sep 29, 12.00-13.00 CEST
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/eNP82ZTuwV
Opportunities and challenges of better interactions between military and civilian R&D
Dominique Foray (Prof EPFL, Chair of Economics and Management of Innovation; Swiss Science Council)
⏲️ Sep 29, 12.00-13.00 CEST
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/eNP82ZTuwV
Reposted by Guido Baldi
I am looking forward to this webinar with Spyros Andreopoulos, whom I appreciate a lot!
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
September 15, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I am looking forward to this webinar with Spyros Andreopoulos, whom I appreciate a lot!
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
I am looking forward to this webinar with Spyros Andreopoulos, whom I appreciate a lot!
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
September 15, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I am looking forward to this webinar with Spyros Andreopoulos, whom I appreciate a lot!
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).
REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
This does not look sustainable!
"France and the UK have increased public spending on over-65s more steeply than most other countries"
"France and Britain are in thrall to pensioners" by John Burn-Murdoch:
www.ft.com/content/d419...
"France and the UK have increased public spending on over-65s more steeply than most other countries"
"France and Britain are in thrall to pensioners" by John Burn-Murdoch:
www.ft.com/content/d419...
September 13, 2025 at 11:12 AM
This does not look sustainable!
"France and the UK have increased public spending on over-65s more steeply than most other countries"
"France and Britain are in thrall to pensioners" by John Burn-Murdoch:
www.ft.com/content/d419...
"France and the UK have increased public spending on over-65s more steeply than most other countries"
"France and Britain are in thrall to pensioners" by John Burn-Murdoch:
www.ft.com/content/d419...
Welcome back, inflation?
In the United States, inflation in August was somewhat higher than most expected (0.4%).
One should always be careful. But data for August reinforced the view that the US might have entered an episode with stagflationary characteristics.
www.bls.gov/news.release...
In the United States, inflation in August was somewhat higher than most expected (0.4%).
One should always be careful. But data for August reinforced the view that the US might have entered an episode with stagflationary characteristics.
www.bls.gov/news.release...
September 11, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Welcome back, inflation?
In the United States, inflation in August was somewhat higher than most expected (0.4%).
One should always be careful. But data for August reinforced the view that the US might have entered an episode with stagflationary characteristics.
www.bls.gov/news.release...
In the United States, inflation in August was somewhat higher than most expected (0.4%).
One should always be careful. But data for August reinforced the view that the US might have entered an episode with stagflationary characteristics.
www.bls.gov/news.release...