Michigan budget sees reduction as revenue forecast scaled back amid 'uncertainty'
Lansing — Michigan budget officials decreased their revenue expectations for next year by $320 million Friday, citing larger income tax refunds and the uncertainty over the impact of higher tariffs imposed by Republican President Donald Trump's administration.
Members of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and representatives of the nonpartisan House and Senate fiscal agencies approved a state revenue forecast of $34.05 billion for the next budget year, down from a January projection of $34.37 billion. The change represented a reduction of about 1%.
The decision came during a three-hour meeting inside the Michigan Capitol, where economists repeatedly referenced the volatility of federal decisions on trade policy, which could affect the state's economy, and of potential federal funding cuts, which could directly hit the budget.
"I think uncertainty was the word of the day," said Jen Flood, Michigan's budget director.
Michigan lawmakers will use the revenue projections that were approved on Friday to build the next state budget. The forecast means they will have $320 million less to spend.
Under state law, the Legislature is supposed to approve a new budget by July 1. However, Michigan House Speaker Matt Hall, R-Richland Township, has declined to commit to meet that deadline. And the fiscal year doesn't begin until Oct. 1.
"I think that we're dealing with an unserious group of people," Hall said of his rationale, referring to his Democratic counterparts in the Legislature.
The economic forecast that was approved actually increased the revenue projection for the School Aid Fund, which provides dollars for K-12 education, by $43 million for next year from $18.89 billion to $18.93 billion.
The School Aid Fund primarily receives money through the 6% sales tax and, to a lesser extent, the income tax.
The forecast dropped the revenue projection for next year for the General Fund by $363 million from $15.48 billion to $15.11 billion. The state's General Fund more heavily relies on the 4.25% individual income tax than the School Aid Fund.
A report from the nonpartisan House Fiscal Agency said the estimates needed to drop for the General Fund because of "larger individual income tax refunds and modestly weaker corporate income tax collections."
Similarly, for the current fiscal year, state leaders scaled back the revenue forecast by $136 million: a reduction of $222 million for the General Fund and an increase of $86 million for the School Aid Fund.
Michigan Treasurer Rachael Eubanks on Friday described the forecast as "stable."
"Any meaningful decline can be mostly attributable to overall larger refunds to Michiganders," Eubanks said.
She cited a tax relief measure signed by Whitmer in March 2023 that's phasing in tax decreases for retirement income.
In a statement on Friday, House Appropriations Chairwoman Ann Bollin, R-Brighton Township, said the new revenue projections showed House Republicans were on the right path in planning to cut state spending and to prioritize dollars toward road and bridge repair projects.
"We’ve been planning for cuts — not only to ensure we can fund the critical roads plan, but also to maintain fiscal responsibility overall," Bollin said. "The reality of a less rosy revenue picture than the past few years shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone."
In February, Whitmer proposed an $83.6 billion budget for next year. Earlier this week, the Democratic-controlled Michigan Senate approved a budget plan that amounts to about $84.6 billion. The current budget was about $82.5 billion.
As of Friday, the GOP-led House hadn't approved or even proposed a budget for next year.
Bollin said the House's budget subcommittees needed information from the Friday revenue forecast. Asked when the House would approve a budget for K-12 schools — the fiscal year for school districts begins July 1 — Bollin replied "soon."
"I can't promise next week," Bollin said.
After next week, the House doesn't have session days scheduled until the final week of May as many lawmakers are expected to attend the Detroit Regional Chamber's annual Mackinac Policy Conference.
Rep. Alabas Farhat, D-Dearborn, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said state revenues are still strong and lawmakers shouldn't allow "those who seek to cut life-saving programs for tax cuts to use this announcement as an excuse."
"We must make smart investments in this year's budget to support Michigan families and retain our state's talent and young people," Farhat said. "Michigan is in a global competition for good-paying jobs, educational opportunities and investments. I call on my colleagues to put aside partisan egos and come together so we can deliver real wins for Michigan."
cmauger@detroitnews.com
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This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Michigan budget sees reduction as revenue forecast scaled back amid 'uncertainty'