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Derivatives markets and speculators responsible for market liquidity, not the Fed
Investing.com -- Liquidity in the financial system is not coming from the Federal Reserve, but from derivatives markets and speculators, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report. When the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, central banks around the world had flooded markets with liquidity in order to prevent a collapse, while also dramatically increasing their balance sheets. The Federal Reserve led the way, but the U.S. central bank has since 2022 been steadily shrinking its balance sheet. “A subscriber wrote in with an interesting inquiry regarding the correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and the S&P 500 since 2009. He specifically pointed out that the S&P 500 has typically risen when the Fed’s balance sheet is expanding, and vice-versa, from 2009 through 2022,” Essaye said in a research note on Friday. “That makes sense as a supportive Fed stance and quantitative easing favor high-liquidity market environments. Conversely, a declining Fed balance sheet has coincided with spikes in broad market volatility and sharp declines in equities amid lower market liquidity conditions,” he said. But Essaye noted that since the late-2022 Wall Street lows, the positive correlation between the balance sheet and the border stock market has not been holding up. “So, the critical question to ask is: Where is the liquidity coming from if not the Fed?” Essaye asked. He conceded that it was tough to find one sole reason for elevated liquidity supporting broader markets when not coming from the Fed, but did highlight a trend he found when looking at market history. “Strong stock market rallies almost always occurred in the wake of short-lived spikes in volatility as measured by the VIX, which suggests that a combination of heavily leveraged put-writing activity and/or money pouring into short-volatility strategies after a volatility spike were providing an ‘artificial tailwind’ for the broader stock market indexes, namely the S&P 500, options for which are the critical inputs in calculating the VIX,” he said. “The reason short-volatility strategies support gains in the stock market are mechanical in nature is because an options or derivatives ‘dealer,’ whether it be a big hedge fund or a wirehouse bank’s ‘spec-desk,’ needs to hedge the short-volatility exposure. And they do that with long equity positions,” Essaye explained. As per his research, some examples of this behavior that played out was a volatile 2016 into a favorable short-volatility trade in 2017, and more recently, the volatile beginning to 2025 before a favorable short-volatility trade beyond April 2025. “Without a Fed balance sheet expansion ‘backstop,’ derivatives markets and speculators are largely responsible for the level of market liquidity, which directly influences the magnitude of market moves when headlines are driving markets, two dynamics we’re facing right now. As such, low liquidity, high leverage, and the lack of Fed support leave the risks of high market volatility elevated in early 2026,” Essaye said. “Such an environment can lead to overstated moves in both directions, which means keeping close tabs on core market fundamentals will be key to getting this likely increasingly noisy market ‘right’ in the months and quarters ahead,” he added. The stock market has seen a topsy-turvy 2026 so far, and this week has been especially volatile. The S&P 500 is up 1.2% YTD. Here are some popular exchange-traded funds that track the benchmark S&P 500 index: SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO), and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:IVV). Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 2 out of 3 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 88% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?
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February 6, 2026 at 10:19 PM
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February 6, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Fed’s Daly leans toward one or two more rate cuts to support jobs market
Investing.com -- San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly indicated Friday she believes one or two additional interest rate cuts may be necessary to address weakening labor market conditions. "I think we have to keep an open mind, a very open mind" on rates, Daly said in an interview with Reuters. She supported the Fed’s decision last week to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but noted "you could make a case for going ahead and taking a little more off." Track Fed decisions in real time with rate-path forecasts, dot-plot analysis, and instant market reactions on InvestingPro — now 50% off. Daly expressed particular concern about workers facing a "knife’s edge" situation with higher prices eroding wages and limited job opportunities. She pointed to the struggles of recent college graduates finding employment as a troubling indicator of labor market weakness. "I’m a little more worried about the labor market than I am about inflation," Daly stated, adding that while risks to price stability and maximum employment appear "relatively balanced," vulnerabilities tilt toward labor market concerns. For rate cuts to proceed, Daly emphasized the need for confidence that inflation is on a downward path and recognition that labor market challenges are more severe than current data suggests. The U.S. unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in December. Daly warned that a "low-firing" job market could quickly shift to a "some-firing" environment if businesses don’t see expected demand materialize, potentially requiring Fed intervention. While Daly does not hold a voting position on the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, she participates in policy meetings and her views provide insight into ongoing deliberations among Fed officials. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 2 out of 3 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 88% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?
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February 6, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Exclusive-Fed’s Daly sees labor market vulnerabilities, room to cut interest rates
By Ann Saphir Feb 6 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Friday said she thinks one or two more interest rate cuts may be needed to counteract weakness in the labor market, where workers are "walking a knife’s edge" with higher prices eating into their wages and scarce opportunities for new jobs. "I think we have to keep an open mind, a very open mind" on rates, Daly told Reuters in an interview, her first since the U.S. central bank’s policy committee voted 10-2 last week to leave its benchmark interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. "I was supportive of that decision, but frankly, I thought you could make a case for going ahead and taking a little more off," she said. To cut rates, Daly added, "you have to be pretty confident, like really confident, that the effects of the tariffs will roll off ... that inflation is really on a downward trajectory." Inflation, as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, was stuck around 3% last year, well above the central bank’s 2% target. Many analysts, including some at the Fed, however, project goods inflation will have run its course by the middle of this year and overall inflation will resume easing. To cut rates, you also "have to be really worried that the labor market is more challenged than we currently see in the data," Daly said. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.4% in December. Economists polled by Reuters expect it will be unchanged for January when the Labor Department publishes the latest data next week. While the risks to price stability versus maximum employment - the Fed’s two congressionally mandated goals - look "relatively balanced," Daly said, the vulnerabilities, as she sees them, are tilted toward the labor market side. A "low-firing" labor market can quickly turn to a "some-firing" environment if businesses don’t see expected demand panning out, she said, but given anchored inflation expectations, there’s little that makes her feel an inflation spike is in the offing. "I’m a little more worried about the labor market than I am about inflation," she said. Daly also is focusing on another key leading job market indicator: the sheer number of parents who tell her about their kids’ difficulties finding jobs, a phenomenon also evident in recent data showing a higher unemployment rate among new college graduates than among workers more generally. "That’s an indicator about just the precariousness" of the job market, she said. "At this point, given what I’m seeing in the economy, I lean towards, you know, additional cuts: whether that’s one or two is hard to say." Daly does not have a vote on the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, but takes part in its regular policy-setting meetings. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 2 out of 3 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 88% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?
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February 6, 2026 at 9:21 PM
Ripple effects of software rout felt through asset managers
By Medha Singh, Naomi Rovnick and Isla Binnie Feb 6 (Reuters) - Asset managers and private equity firms found themselves at the sharp end of the AI‑driven shock hitting the software sector as investors fretted over exposure to loans and leverage tied to the industry. The pullback in software - which has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization in those stocks - impacted asset managers, with the group as a whole hurt. The Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index is down nearly 5% for the week as of Friday afternoon versus the S&P 500 which is around flat. Individual names that sold off included Ares, Blackstone, Blue Owl, Carlyle, Apollo, TPG and KKR, which fell between 7% and 14% this week - recovering some ground in a rebound on Friday. "There are a few issues compounding the drawdown," said Mark Hackett, Nationwide chief market strategist in Philadelphia. "The trigger for the (private equity/business development corporation/asset management) stocks is driven by the software selloff and concern over loan exposure and leverage." Morgan Stanley pegged technology services deal volumes at nearly 21% of overall private-equity activity, noting that TPG Inc, Carlyle and KKR were slightly above that level, while Apollo was the lowest among the asset managers in its coverage. The AI trade had "subsumed parts of the market," said Wasif Latif, chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners in New Jersey. "This is especially true for asset managers and PE (private equity) firms." With software stocks down 22% since January, loan-to-enterprise value (LTV) has increased for associated credits, raising concerns around default risk, BNP Paribas analysts Meghan Robson and Ben Cannon said in a note. LTV measures total debt against a company’s total valuation. Software and services exposure is significantly larger in U.S. leveraged loans, around 17%, and 4% in the U.S. high yield loan market, the note said. In the private credit space, software exposure is about 20%, BNP estimated based on quarterly filings of specialized investment firms known as BDCs. LENDING EXPOSURE The non-bank lending sector, which includes private credit funds and esoteric vehicles such as collateralised loan obligations, has also become exposed to the software groups’ declining growth and credit quality. Software borrowers are the biggest exposure for private lenders and the most highly indebted, while their revenue growth is also slowing, data from alternative credit analysis group KBRA published February 5 showed. With sales growth down to 10% from 18% a year ago because of factors including companies’ delaying or cutting IT spending, private credit’s software borrowers are also shouldering debt worth 7.4 times much as their profits measured before tax, interest and other deductions, on average, KBRA data showed. This compared to 5.9 times average leverage across a more than $1 trillion pool of loans studied by KBRA. One banker who works with asset management, who declined to be named, said alternative asset managers will face a test when they look to exit some investments, particularly in software. Managers of business development companies (BDCs), a key vehicle in private credit through which a fund raises money from investors to then lend directly to mid-sized companies, have been quizzed about software holdings. Ares executive Kort Schnabel said on a conference call on Wednesday that its business development company, Ares Capital Corporation, had "a very small amount of portfolio companies that could be disrupted." KKR Co-CEO Scott Nuttall told analysts on a conference call on Thursday that the firm had taken "an inventory of our portfolio the last two years" and identified whether AI was "an opportunity, or a threat, or a question mark." Blue Owl said its software portfolio represents 8% of total assets under management as it played down concerns following this week’s selloff, while Carlyle said software accounted for 6% of its AUM. Speaking at a conference last week before the sell-off took hold, Blackstone President and Chief Operating Officer Jon Gray said AI disruption risk was "top of the page" for his firm, which manages assets worth $1.27 trillion. He said the safest way to play the AI megatrend was investing in data centers and surrounding infrastructure. Apollo declined to comment ahead of its quarterly results on Monday, while Blackstone and Blue Owl did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 2 out of 3 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 88% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?
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February 6, 2026 at 8:25 PM
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February 6, 2026 at 8:18 PM
Netflix’s Warner deal faces Justice Department scrutiny - WSJ
Investing.com -- The Justice Department is investigating Netflix for potential anticompetitive tactics as it reviews the streaming company’s proposed acquisition of Warner Discovery’s studios and HBO Max streaming service. According to a civil subpoena viewed by The Wall Street Journal, the Justice Department is examining how Netflix competes with rivals, suggesting officials are concerned the Warner deal could strengthen Netflix’s market position or potentially create a monopoly. In the subpoena sent to another entertainment company, the agency specifically asked for information about "any other exclusionary conduct on the part of Netflix that would reasonably appear capable of entrenching market or monopoly power." Netflix agreed in December to acquire Warner assets for $27.75 a share in cash, valuing the deal at $72 billion. The Justice Department is also reviewing Paramount’s proposed acquisition, which Warner has advised its shareholders to reject. U.S. antitrust law gives regulators broad authority to block mergers that could lead to monopolistic conditions in a market. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. ProPicks AI evaluates WBD alongside thousands of other companies every month using 100+ financial metrics. Using powerful AI to generate exciting stock ideas, it looks beyond popularity to assess fundamentals, momentum, and valuation. The AI has no bias—it simply identifies which stocks offer the best risk-reward based on current data with notable past winners that include Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Want to know if WBD is currently featured in any ProPicks AI strategies, or if there are better opportunities in the same space?
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February 6, 2026 at 8:18 PM