It's clear the only way Nico Harrison can save his job and win back the admiration of the fanbase is to construct a trade that centers around Cooper Flagg for Zion. The Mavs are 14th in the West and Cooper has a -4.2 RAPM, clearly a bust. A win now move like trading for Zion will fix everything.
November 10, 2025 at 3:06 PM
It's clear the only way Nico Harrison can save his job and win back the admiration of the fanbase is to construct a trade that centers around Cooper Flagg for Zion. The Mavs are 14th in the West and Cooper has a -4.2 RAPM, clearly a bust. A win now move like trading for Zion will fix everything.
This one's pretty funny I think
November 7, 2025 at 11:35 AM
This one's pretty funny I think
Anaheim is 10-3-1 with a +14 goal differential on 2025-11-09, and if you told me that a month ago I would have, well, probably started laughing
This season has had a very weird & wild start
This season has had a very weird & wild start
November 9, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Anaheim is 10-3-1 with a +14 goal differential on 2025-11-09, and if you told me that a month ago I would have, well, probably started laughing
This season has had a very weird & wild start
This season has had a very weird & wild start
No RAPM charts for "heart" and "determination" are there
November 4, 2025 at 3:48 AM
No RAPM charts for "heart" and "determination" are there
I gave their chatbot some ayahuasca and now it won’t stop talking in Maoist Standard English about RapM is owed reparations for their vote mechanism fucking up
they also forgot to book wizzrobe a flight to Oop$! no Pat’$ Hou$e
they also forgot to book wizzrobe a flight to Oop$! no Pat’$ Hou$e
October 31, 2025 at 2:01 AM
I gave their chatbot some ayahuasca and now it won’t stop talking in Maoist Standard English about RapM is owed reparations for their vote mechanism fucking up
they also forgot to book wizzrobe a flight to Oop$! no Pat’$ Hou$e
they also forgot to book wizzrobe a flight to Oop$! no Pat’$ Hou$e
Evolving Hockey GAR xGAR & RAPM are now active. It will shock nobody that Luke Schenn is bottom 25 in the league in both GAR & xGAR. Vilardi xGAR being 4th worst in the league is a bit surprising though
October 27, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Evolving Hockey GAR xGAR & RAPM are now active. It will shock nobody that Luke Schenn is bottom 25 in the league in both GAR & xGAR. Vilardi xGAR being 4th worst in the league is a bit surprising though
It's quite possible that I'm missing some of the nuance related to the RAPM xG metrics that affect the scale, and maybe this is expected. However, I've been impressed by how the Jets managed to put together 4 lines & 3 D pairs with such good metrics, despite mediocre-seeming individual metrics. /end
October 23, 2025 at 8:27 PM
It's quite possible that I'm missing some of the nuance related to the RAPM xG metrics that affect the scale, and maybe this is expected. However, I've been impressed by how the Jets managed to put together 4 lines & 3 D pairs with such good metrics, despite mediocre-seeming individual metrics. /end
Well ya, but +/- is shit for that reason and others. You can adjust for goalie.
That's what Corsi and xGoal is about. Removing the goalie influence.
Then we remove the teammates, linematches, etc. influence with RAPM.
Etc. etc.
That's what Corsi and xGoal is about. Removing the goalie influence.
Then we remove the teammates, linematches, etc. influence with RAPM.
Etc. etc.
December 28, 2024 at 10:18 PM
Well ya, but +/- is shit for that reason and others. You can adjust for goalie.
That's what Corsi and xGoal is about. Removing the goalie influence.
Then we remove the teammates, linematches, etc. influence with RAPM.
Etc. etc.
That's what Corsi and xGoal is about. Removing the goalie influence.
Then we remove the teammates, linematches, etc. influence with RAPM.
Etc. etc.
To be fair, these are our working hours (especially now given the recent GAR/RAPM roll out for the season). We have a really messed up work "schedule" where sometimes we have to sit around all day until games have finished and then do a bunch of work at like 2AM lol
November 13, 2024 at 11:19 AM
To be fair, these are our working hours (especially now given the recent GAR/RAPM roll out for the season). We have a really messed up work "schedule" where sometimes we have to sit around all day until games have finished and then do a bunch of work at like 2AM lol
New post: Introducing RAPM for transition stats. Which players are pushing the puck up ice driving creating more time in the offensive zone? It turns out play on entries has a far greater impact that play on exits.
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
Introducing RAPM for Transition Statistics
Which players drive zone entries and exits with possession?
open.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 1:02 PM
New post: Introducing RAPM for transition stats. Which players are pushing the puck up ice driving creating more time in the offensive zone? It turns out play on entries has a far greater impact that play on exits.
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
Yeah, all individual player projections are made from each player's prior three regular seasons (there are separate models for players with only one or two prior seasons).
We do not run GAR/xGAR/RAPM for the playoffs and those are inputs for the individual player projection models.
We do not run GAR/xGAR/RAPM for the playoffs and those are inputs for the individual player projection models.
May 8, 2025 at 6:05 AM
Yeah, all individual player projections are made from each player's prior three regular seasons (there are separate models for players with only one or two prior seasons).
We do not run GAR/xGAR/RAPM for the playoffs and those are inputs for the individual player projection models.
We do not run GAR/xGAR/RAPM for the playoffs and those are inputs for the individual player projection models.
One can click through overall, offense, defense, and impact comparisons.
Here is what you get for impact comparison which shows offensive, defensive, and overall DPM. Plus the same for RAPM with multi year options as well.
Here is what you get for impact comparison which shows offensive, defensive, and overall DPM. Plus the same for RAPM with multi year options as well.
April 24, 2025 at 2:51 PM
One can click through overall, offense, defense, and impact comparisons.
Here is what you get for impact comparison which shows offensive, defensive, and overall DPM. Plus the same for RAPM with multi year options as well.
Here is what you get for impact comparison which shows offensive, defensive, and overall DPM. Plus the same for RAPM with multi year options as well.
His Corsi and xGoal results this season are good (but his Goal results are a disaster). Ironically, his 5v5 RAPM numbers are the opposite.
December 13, 2024 at 10:11 PM
His Corsi and xGoal results this season are good (but his Goal results are a disaster). Ironically, his 5v5 RAPM numbers are the opposite.
Also, Duchene isn't good enough defensively. He's played as a sheltered 2C/3C, just like Tavares... He's just better than Tavares at driving offense.
He's worse defensively though.
He's worse defensively though.
May 24, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Also, Duchene isn't good enough defensively. He's played as a sheltered 2C/3C, just like Tavares... He's just better than Tavares at driving offense.
He's worse defensively though.
He's worse defensively though.
Smoothed out some RAPM numbers while focusing on Mo Seider
thebucketless.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/r...
thebucketless.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/r...
RAPM Breakdown for Moritz Seider
I often see people look to break down a player's minutes by difficulty. Recently, I had an idea on how we can use a RAPM model to show that. RAPM models are basically just big linear regressors that f...
thebucketless.wordpress.com
November 19, 2024 at 7:02 PM
Smoothed out some RAPM numbers while focusing on Mo Seider
thebucketless.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/r...
thebucketless.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/r...
Dragging both Stanley and Morrissey higher most likley. His RAPM chart has flipped from last season too.
November 2, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Dragging both Stanley and Morrissey higher most likley. His RAPM chart has flipped from last season too.
Watching yet another candidate for the Evolving Hockey Player of the Year (no goals only defense)
December 11, 2024 at 3:59 AM
Watching yet another candidate for the Evolving Hockey Player of the Year (no goals only defense)
Featurette Friday: What is RAPM and how to use it
Plus:
- 4F1D vs 3F2D power play units
- 2020-21 Winnipeg Jets season
- Value of adherence in health and other outcomes
- Trade off of simplicity vs effort in investing
- and more
open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...
Plus:
- 4F1D vs 3F2D power play units
- 2020-21 Winnipeg Jets season
- Value of adherence in health and other outcomes
- Trade off of simplicity vs effort in investing
- and more
open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...
Featurette Friday: What is RAPM and how to use it
Discover the Best Reader Questions, Jets Flashbacks, Hockey Analytics, Powerlifting Principles, and Financial Wisdom
open.substack.com
December 15, 2023 at 8:37 PM
Featurette Friday: What is RAPM and how to use it
Plus:
- 4F1D vs 3F2D power play units
- 2020-21 Winnipeg Jets season
- Value of adherence in health and other outcomes
- Trade off of simplicity vs effort in investing
- and more
open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...
Plus:
- 4F1D vs 3F2D power play units
- 2020-21 Winnipeg Jets season
- Value of adherence in health and other outcomes
- Trade off of simplicity vs effort in investing
- and more
open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...
Yeah, though he hasn't been great in the desert so far.
I also find myself wishing we had Holl around rather than Klingberg.
I also find myself wishing we had Holl around rather than Klingberg.
November 5, 2023 at 5:47 PM
Yeah, though he hasn't been great in the desert so far.
I also find myself wishing we had Holl around rather than Klingberg.
I also find myself wishing we had Holl around rather than Klingberg.
RAPM chart season has begun
November 12, 2024 at 4:55 PM
RAPM chart season has begun
The most obvious move is he pushes Myers or Timmins down on the right side.
But he is most obviously an upgrade over Benoit (who shouldn't be in the lineup when the Leafs are healthy).
But he is most obviously an upgrade over Benoit (who shouldn't be in the lineup when the Leafs are healthy).
March 7, 2025 at 8:59 PM
The most obvious move is he pushes Myers or Timmins down on the right side.
But he is most obviously an upgrade over Benoit (who shouldn't be in the lineup when the Leafs are healthy).
But he is most obviously an upgrade over Benoit (who shouldn't be in the lineup when the Leafs are healthy).
@AztecAnalytics tweeted
Anquan Bolden Jr. 6’4” Athletic Wing
Not much of a shooter, points predominantly At Rim/In Paint.
On/Off splits p/100:
Offense -2.6
Defense -2.5
RAPM -3.0
Shooting%iles:
2P% (93)
3P% (9)
FT% (17)
Athleticism could turn into solid wing defender, not a threat on
Anquan Bolden Jr. 6’4” Athletic Wing
Not much of a shooter, points predominantly At Rim/In Paint.
On/Off splits p/100:
Offense -2.6
Defense -2.5
RAPM -3.0
Shooting%iles:
2P% (93)
3P% (9)
FT% (17)
Athleticism could turn into solid wing defender, not a threat on
Tweet
@AztecAnalytics tweeted
Anquan Bolden Jr. 6’4” Athletic Wing
Not much of a shooter, points predominantly At Rim/In Paint.
On/Off splits p/100:
Offense -2.6
Defense -2.5
RAPM -3.0
Shooting%iles:
2P% (93)
3P% (9)
FT% (17)
Athleticism could turn into solid wing defender, not a threat on
twitter.com
March 25, 2025 at 4:57 PM
@AztecAnalytics tweeted
Anquan Bolden Jr. 6’4” Athletic Wing
Not much of a shooter, points predominantly At Rim/In Paint.
On/Off splits p/100:
Offense -2.6
Defense -2.5
RAPM -3.0
Shooting%iles:
2P% (93)
3P% (9)
FT% (17)
Athleticism could turn into solid wing defender, not a threat on
Anquan Bolden Jr. 6’4” Athletic Wing
Not much of a shooter, points predominantly At Rim/In Paint.
On/Off splits p/100:
Offense -2.6
Defense -2.5
RAPM -3.0
Shooting%iles:
2P% (93)
3P% (9)
FT% (17)
Athleticism could turn into solid wing defender, not a threat on
Those can get a little complicated, but we have explainers in our Glossary/References section if you're interested in learning more! After those, I'll usually dig into our RAPM metrics (another model but more granular) and then look into line/player combinations through our combos tables.
2/x
2/x
April 29, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Those can get a little complicated, but we have explainers in our Glossary/References section if you're interested in learning more! After those, I'll usually dig into our RAPM metrics (another model but more granular) and then look into line/player combinations through our combos tables.
2/x
2/x
Just gonna point out that Emil Andrae has now played 12 NHL games this season, and these are his advanced 5v5 metrics:
59.38% xG share (96th percentile in xG impact among NHL blueliners per RAPM)
53.86% Corsi For %
Flyers outscoring opponents 9 - 5 with him on-ice
Not too shabby.
59.38% xG share (96th percentile in xG impact among NHL blueliners per RAPM)
53.86% Corsi For %
Flyers outscoring opponents 9 - 5 with him on-ice
Not too shabby.
November 26, 2024 at 10:50 PM
Just gonna point out that Emil Andrae has now played 12 NHL games this season, and these are his advanced 5v5 metrics:
59.38% xG share (96th percentile in xG impact among NHL blueliners per RAPM)
53.86% Corsi For %
Flyers outscoring opponents 9 - 5 with him on-ice
Not too shabby.
59.38% xG share (96th percentile in xG impact among NHL blueliners per RAPM)
53.86% Corsi For %
Flyers outscoring opponents 9 - 5 with him on-ice
Not too shabby.
NHL xGA/60 - GA/60 from Natural Stat Trick chart and xGA/60 - GA/60 RAPM from @evolvinghockey.bsky.social chart
Oof, the San Jose Sharks lol
Oof, the San Jose Sharks lol
November 7, 2023 at 11:46 PM
NHL xGA/60 - GA/60 from Natural Stat Trick chart and xGA/60 - GA/60 RAPM from @evolvinghockey.bsky.social chart
Oof, the San Jose Sharks lol
Oof, the San Jose Sharks lol