The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Anotherimportant input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect. Non-Farm Payrolls * 0K-144K range of estimates * 60K-100K range most clustered * 75K consensus Unemployment Rate * 4.4% (1%) * 4.3% (59%) - consensus * 4.2% (39%) * 4.1% (1%) Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y * 3.9% (7%) * 3.8% (31%) * 3.7% (59%) - consensus * 3.4% (3%) Average Hourly Earnings M/M * 0.4% (5%) * 0.3% (91%) - consensus * 0.2% (4%) Average Weekly Hours * 34.4 (3%) * 34.3 (83%) - consensus * 34.2 (14%) Overall, expectations are dovish for this report and the positioning is diametrically opposite to the one we had in August. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Updates at 00:50 ET (04:50 GMT) with India open, China recovery Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, capping off a volatile week as investors awaited key U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for more cues on interest rates in the world’s largest economy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the best performer in the region after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order implementing a Washington-Tokyo trade deal, which entails lower trade tariffs against the Asian country. Chinese markets steadied after being battered by profit-taking this week, with markets now looking to a host of economic readings due next week for more cues on the Chinese economy. Regional markets took positive cues from Wall Street, where optimism over lower interest rates saw the S&P 500 close at a record high on Thursday. Focus is now squarely on nonfarm payrolls data, due at 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT). S&P 500 Futures rose 0.2% in Asian trade. Japanese stocks lead on US trade optimism Japan’s Nikkei 225 index added 0.8%, while the TOPIX rose 0.4%. The Nikkei was trading up 0.4% this week. Sentiment towards Japan was buoyed by Trump executing a recently signed trade deal, which will entail lower trade tariffs on Japan, especially the country’s key automobile sector. Stronger-than-expected private spending data also highlighted some resilience in the Japanese economy. Household spending rose more than expected in July from the prior month, while overall wage income of employees also beat expectations. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. The readings highlighted strength in consumer spending, which is a key driver of Japanese growth. But they also pointed to some stickiness in inflation– a trend that could attract more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan in the coming months. Chinese stocks head for weekly losses after August rally China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite added 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.5%, with all three indexes advancing after a sluggish start to the day. Mainland Chinese markets vastly lagged their Asian peers this week, and were set to lose about 2.6% amid a wave of profit-taking. This came after Chinese shares logged stellar gains in August, racing to multi-year highs on optimism over more stimulus measures and an increased push for self-reliance in artificial intelligence technology. Private purchasing managers index data released this week showed some resilience in the Chinese economy, with trade and inflation data set to provide more economic cues in the coming week. The Hang Seng was trading up 0.3% this week on some resilience in technology shares. Broader Asian markets mostly advanced on Friday and were set for middling weekly performances. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.4%, while Singapore’s Straits Times index added 0.3%. South Korea’s KOSPI was flat. Indian stocks set for weekly gain on tax cheer India’s Nifty 50 index fell 0.3% in morning trade. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Indian shares lagged their Asian peers in August with a 1.4% loss, as the country was slapped with U.S. President Donald Trump’s increased 50% tariffs. But bigger losses in Indian shares were still limited by signs of resilience in the Indian economy, especially after the government announced a host of tax cuts aimed at supporting private spending. Optimism over the tax cuts also put the Nifty on course for a 1% gain this week. Which stocks should you consider in your very next trade? The best opportunities often hide in plain sight—buried among thousands of stocks you'd never have time to research individually. That's why smart investors use our Stock Screener with 50+ predefined screens and 160+ customizable filters to surface hidden gems instantly. For example, the Piotroski's Picks method averages 23% annual returns by focusing on financial strength, and you can get it as a standalone screen. Momentum Masters catches stocks gaining serious traction, while Blue-Chip Bargains finds undervalued giants. With screens for dividends, growth, value, and more, you'll discover opportunities others miss. Our current favorite screen is Under $10/share, which is great for discovering stocks trading under $10 with recent price momentum showing some very impressive returns!

This week, I talk about how all eyes are on tomorrow’s jobs report in the U.S. and a couple of weeks later, the Fed’s interest rate meeting. Here’s this week’s video: Here’s the HD link: https://youtu...

Goldman Sachs notes that the US jobs data this week should continue to show signs of weakening but not to a point of a collapse. The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to underwhelm slightly at +60K with the risks being skewed lower due to seasonal negative bias in the initial prints for August. On the unemployment rate, they see that rising to 4.3% amid further loss of momentum in the labour market in general. As for wages, they see average hourly earnings matching estimates at +0.3% m/m. They attribute the modest increase to favourable calendar effects. Overall, Goldman Sachs sees the data as being one that is supportive of the Fed cutting rates in September but might still offer up a debate on the timing of rate cuts; depending on how other developments play out. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

US President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday after getting jobs numbers he didn't like. It's an extremely concerning move for anyone hoping to trade based on reliable economic data. it's also reminiscent of Argentina and various other despotic regimes and it's never ended well. At some point, it's going to be awfully difficult to trust the numbers but we will have to wait and see now long it takes to restructure the organization. The next non-farm payrolls report is September 5 and it will feature annual benchmark revisions for April 2024- March 2025. It's a report that often comes with some big shifts in the employment picture and Goldman Sachs is out with a note saying it won't be a pretty one."The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 non-farm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward revision on the order of 550-950k (or a 45-80k downward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2024-March 2025)." Now most of that will fall in the Biden period but it's likely to be further fuel in a movement that's increasingly inclined to manipulate the numbers. As for the real economy, the reason we're likely to see downward revisions and continuing low jobs numbers is the crackdown on illegal immigration and the reversal of growth in the labor force. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.