x.com
December 30, 2025 at 11:17 PM
#mysteryBroker revealed
a black and white photo of a man in a hat
ALT: a black and white photo of a man in a hat
media.tenor.com
December 30, 2025 at 8:52 PM
#mysteryBroker revealed
Tomorrow: MysteryBroker unmasks, markets braced. #econsky
As we just teased on the air, the identity of the #MysteryBroker will be revealed tomorrow when he joins me on CNBC's Closing Bell at 3pm Eastern. He'll be offering a fairly provocative market outlook as well.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
The story behind the savvy 'Mystery Broker' and where he sees the market going now
The history of the canny and clear-thinking financial advisor who has come to be known in print and on Twitter as the Mystery Broker.
www.cnbc.com
December 29, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Tomorrow: MysteryBroker unmasks, markets braced. #econsky
As we just teased on the air, the identity of the #MysteryBroker will be revealed tomorrow when he joins me on CNBC's Closing Bell at 3pm Eastern. He'll be offering a fairly provocative market outlook as well.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
The story behind the savvy 'Mystery Broker' and where he sees the market going now
The history of the canny and clear-thinking financial advisor who has come to be known in print and on Twitter as the Mystery Broker.
www.cnbc.com
December 29, 2025 at 9:13 PM
As we just teased on the air, the identity of the #MysteryBroker will be revealed tomorrow when he joins me on CNBC's Closing Bell at 3pm Eastern. He'll be offering a fairly provocative market outlook as well.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
When I was a young man, full of anger and dread, I hated MysteryBroker and his calm ways. Now that I’m grown, I see his steady hand as the beacon in the storm.
- Mystery Degenerate
- Mystery Degenerate
August 7, 2025 at 1:44 PM
When I was a young man, full of anger and dread, I hated MysteryBroker and his calm ways. Now that I’m grown, I see his steady hand as the beacon in the storm.
- Mystery Degenerate
- Mystery Degenerate
The #MysteryBroker closes out this Sell call at today's open. Based on technical action: "The NYSE ARMS Index rose dramatically the last few days to a level that correlates with upside in the S&P 500." Takes a small trading loss on S&P 500, though $BUZZ ETF (his other bearish play) is off 3%.
August 7, 2025 at 1:37 PM
The #MysteryBroker closes out this Sell call at today's open. Based on technical action: "The NYSE ARMS Index rose dramatically the last few days to a level that correlates with upside in the S&P 500." Takes a small trading loss on S&P 500, though $BUZZ ETF (his other bearish play) is off 3%.
That's it for now. Heed the usual fine print on #MysteryBroker stuff...
July 30, 2025 at 12:15 PM
That's it for now. Heed the usual fine print on #MysteryBroker stuff...
On the macro backdrop, #MysteryBroker says: "The trade deals are anti free market and create distortions in the allocation of resources...My biggest difference with the consensus is that the tariffs will have a significant effect on both the economy and inflation over the next few months."
July 30, 2025 at 12:15 PM
On the macro backdrop, #MysteryBroker says: "The trade deals are anti free market and create distortions in the allocation of resources...My biggest difference with the consensus is that the tariffs will have a significant effect on both the economy and inflation over the next few months."
The #MysteryBroker says "Technical indicators are flashing overbought signals. Seasonality is now turning bearish for the next two months. There hasn’t been a 1% move in the S&P 500 since June 24th, thus we are due. And it is likely to be a down 1% or more when the streak is broken..."
July 30, 2025 at 12:15 PM
The #MysteryBroker says "Technical indicators are flashing overbought signals. Seasonality is now turning bearish for the next two months. There hasn’t been a 1% move in the S&P 500 since June 24th, thus we are due. And it is likely to be a down 1% or more when the streak is broken..."
The #MysteryBroker further details his Sell call, which amounts to an overbought stock market with particular overheating in the high-beta/low-quality stuff due for a pullback, combined with investor underappreciation of the net negative lagged effects of even better-than-feared tariff policies...
July 30, 2025 at 12:15 PM
The #MysteryBroker further details his Sell call, which amounts to an overbought stock market with particular overheating in the high-beta/low-quality stuff due for a pullback, combined with investor underappreciation of the net negative lagged effects of even better-than-feared tariff policies...
Quick update, the #MysteryBroker says he went to a short-term Sell today on the S&P 500, details when available...
bsky.app/profile/mich...
bsky.app/profile/mich...
At last report in May, #MysteryBroker was giving room to the market rebound to prove it was more than a bear-market rally before issuing a Sell call. The broad rally that ensued, along with persistent negative sentiment and firm financial- and semiconductor-stock performance, proved encouraging...
July 29, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Quick update, the #MysteryBroker says he went to a short-term Sell today on the S&P 500, details when available...
bsky.app/profile/mich...
bsky.app/profile/mich...
Small correction - the last #MysteryBroker update was in late April, about two weeks off the market low, not in May.
July 2, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Small correction - the last #MysteryBroker update was in late April, about two weeks off the market low, not in May.
The #MysteryBroker again claims the secular bull market - one with double-digit annualized real returns - ended early 2022. Real S&P 500 CAGR has been 5% since then, so it will "have to show some rip roaring returns in the next two years to qualify...as a continuation of the secular bull market."
July 2, 2025 at 3:51 PM
The #MysteryBroker again claims the secular bull market - one with double-digit annualized real returns - ended early 2022. Real S&P 500 CAGR has been 5% since then, so it will "have to show some rip roaring returns in the next two years to qualify...as a continuation of the secular bull market."
The #MysteryBroker now says the recovery to a new high means it should be insulated from a "significant downturn" for ~12 months. From here, "the stock market should enter some kind of pause period soon until the fall as investors deal with stagflation, but should set up for a nice year end rally."
July 2, 2025 at 3:51 PM
The #MysteryBroker now says the recovery to a new high means it should be insulated from a "significant downturn" for ~12 months. From here, "the stock market should enter some kind of pause period soon until the fall as investors deal with stagflation, but should set up for a nice year end rally."
At last report in May, #MysteryBroker was giving room to the market rebound to prove it was more than a bear-market rally before issuing a Sell call. The broad rally that ensued, along with persistent negative sentiment and firm financial- and semiconductor-stock performance, proved encouraging...
July 2, 2025 at 3:51 PM
At last report in May, #MysteryBroker was giving room to the market rebound to prove it was more than a bear-market rally before issuing a Sell call. The broad rally that ensued, along with persistent negative sentiment and firm financial- and semiconductor-stock performance, proved encouraging...
And now for my standard disclaimer on #MysteryBroker stuff:
He's a source I've quoted for 15+ years, since my time at Barron's; is a real person; is not me; is not someone whose name you'd know.
I provide the updates as I get them, not upon request. Check the hashtag for his past market takes.
He's a source I've quoted for 15+ years, since my time at Barron's; is a real person; is not me; is not someone whose name you'd know.
I provide the updates as I get them, not upon request. Check the hashtag for his past market takes.
April 24, 2025 at 7:21 PM
And now for my standard disclaimer on #MysteryBroker stuff:
He's a source I've quoted for 15+ years, since my time at Barron's; is a real person; is not me; is not someone whose name you'd know.
I provide the updates as I get them, not upon request. Check the hashtag for his past market takes.
He's a source I've quoted for 15+ years, since my time at Barron's; is a real person; is not me; is not someone whose name you'd know.
I provide the updates as I get them, not upon request. Check the hashtag for his past market takes.
The #MysteryBroker elaborates: "Since January of 2022 we have had a negative real total return for the last 3 years and 3 1/2 months," something that would be unusual to see over such a span within a long-running structural bull market. For what it's worth...
April 24, 2025 at 7:21 PM
The #MysteryBroker elaborates: "Since January of 2022 we have had a negative real total return for the last 3 years and 3 1/2 months," something that would be unusual to see over such a span within a long-running structural bull market. For what it's worth...
Maybe today's rally gets things closer to sell zone, will update when available.
Meantime, #MysteryBroker adds that he's now convinced the secular bull market that began March 2009 ended either in January 2022 or this past February, giving way to a period of much more muted real equity returns.
Meantime, #MysteryBroker adds that he's now convinced the secular bull market that began March 2009 ended either in January 2022 or this past February, giving way to a period of much more muted real equity returns.
April 24, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Maybe today's rally gets things closer to sell zone, will update when available.
Meantime, #MysteryBroker adds that he's now convinced the secular bull market that began March 2009 ended either in January 2022 or this past February, giving way to a period of much more muted real equity returns.
Meantime, #MysteryBroker adds that he's now convinced the secular bull market that began March 2009 ended either in January 2022 or this past February, giving way to a period of much more muted real equity returns.
Overnight update from #MysteryBroker: Says he thinks we're "probably in a bear market," but hasn't gone to a sell call. "Waiting for more of a rebound and more time to pass...We declined 20% within 7 weeks, and if this is a continued bear market we need to have more fake outs and more time to pass."
April 24, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Overnight update from #MysteryBroker: Says he thinks we're "probably in a bear market," but hasn't gone to a sell call. "Waiting for more of a rebound and more time to pass...We declined 20% within 7 weeks, and if this is a continued bear market we need to have more fake outs and more time to pass."
Wow, good thing #MysteryBroker went Tactical buy on 3/10 to get all that upside since then...checks notes....oh wait...nvmd
March 28, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Wow, good thing #MysteryBroker went Tactical buy on 3/10 to get all that upside since then...checks notes....oh wait...nvmd
Looking into the distance, the #MysteryBroker says, "I firmly believe that this secular bull market can not last more than 12 to 18 months at most if it has not already ended in December of 2021." Would mean a prolonged period of near-zero inflation-adjusted equity returns to follow.
March 11, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Looking into the distance, the #MysteryBroker says, "I firmly believe that this secular bull market can not last more than 12 to 18 months at most if it has not already ended in December of 2021." Would mean a prolonged period of near-zero inflation-adjusted equity returns to follow.
The #MysteryBroker says, "This is very likely not the beginning of a bear market. Bear markets never begin when the financials are at all-time highs. High yield spreads haven’t widened much. Also the poor market breadth since late October was not long enough to precede a bear market."
March 11, 2025 at 4:22 PM
The #MysteryBroker says, "This is very likely not the beginning of a bear market. Bear markets never begin when the financials are at all-time highs. High yield spreads haven’t widened much. Also the poor market breadth since late October was not long enough to precede a bear market."
The #MysteryBroker followed up overnight with a fuller market take.
Short version: This correction is likely due for some upside relief; the markings of a bear market aren't visible.
But the clock is ticking on the secular bear market that started in 2009, expect weaker long-term returns. Thread:
Short version: This correction is likely due for some upside relief; the markings of a bear market aren't visible.
But the clock is ticking on the secular bear market that started in 2009, expect weaker long-term returns. Thread:
The #MysteryBroker checks in to say he went to a tactical Buy on the S&P 500 about 20 minutes before the close, with the index about at where it ultimately settled. Sees at worst a down open Tuesday then rally, expects no more than 10-12% total drop for this move.
More details when available.
More details when available.
March 11, 2025 at 4:22 PM
The #MysteryBroker followed up overnight with a fuller market take.
Short version: This correction is likely due for some upside relief; the markings of a bear market aren't visible.
But the clock is ticking on the secular bear market that started in 2009, expect weaker long-term returns. Thread:
Short version: This correction is likely due for some upside relief; the markings of a bear market aren't visible.
But the clock is ticking on the secular bear market that started in 2009, expect weaker long-term returns. Thread:
There's a years-long history of #MysteryBroker calls on X under that hashtag.
The fine print remains as it ever was....
The fine print remains as it ever was....
March 10, 2025 at 8:19 PM
There's a years-long history of #MysteryBroker calls on X under that hashtag.
The fine print remains as it ever was....
The fine print remains as it ever was....
The #MysteryBroker checks in to say he went to a tactical Buy on the S&P 500 about 20 minutes before the close, with the index about at where it ultimately settled. Sees at worst a down open Tuesday then rally, expects no more than 10-12% total drop for this move.
More details when available.
More details when available.
March 10, 2025 at 8:18 PM
The #MysteryBroker checks in to say he went to a tactical Buy on the S&P 500 about 20 minutes before the close, with the index about at where it ultimately settled. Sees at worst a down open Tuesday then rally, expects no more than 10-12% total drop for this move.
More details when available.
More details when available.