“All things considered, the negatives outweigh the positives,” said one San Diego economist.

Major banks including Bank of America and Commerzbank expect the US dollar to weaken as Fed rate cuts narrow interest differentials and political risks rise, while the euro gains strength against the ...

In light of rising geopolitical risks and the increasing frequency of cyberattacks, French investors are rediscovering the benefits of safe-haven assets. Gold and Bitcoin are becoming the cornerstones of a hybrid wealth strategy, combining security with monetary independence.

Political turmoil in Europe and Japan, and a genuine US productivity revival, are fuelling a dollar rebound few expected. by Yield Scribe , BasisPointInsight.com

India’s foreign currency reserves fell by 2.33 billion US dollars last week, according to the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India.

By Amanda Cooper LONDON (Reuters) -The pound headed towards its largest monthly loss against the dollar since September 2022 on Thursday, reflecting growing confidence among investors in the outlook for the U.S. economy and increasing pessimism over the British one. Sterling was down 0.15% on the day at $1.322 and weakened against the euro, which rose 0.4% to 86.46 pence. In July, the pound has fallen by 3.7%, the most since losing 3.9% and hitting a record low in September 2022, during then-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s budget-induced market crisis. The pound is still up nearly 6% against the dollar this year, but that’s softened dramatically from a year-to-date gain of almost 10% at the start of the month. Following Wednesday’s two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged, as expected, and Chair Jerome Powell gave no indication of when they might fall again. In the meantime, U.S. data has painted a far rosier picture of the world’s largest economy than UK data has of the British economy. U.S. data releases this week including second-quarter economic activity and some measures of employment have added to that. The Citi U.S. economic surprise index has overtaken its UK counterpart this week for the first time since April. With the Bank of England expected to almost certainly deliver two more rate cuts this year, according to money markets, and a far lower chance of two more cuts from the Fed, investors are ditching the pound. Weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows speculators are neutral on the pound, having whittled back the bullish positioning that had prevailed continuously since February. "Slowing U.S. growth and UK fiscal concerns both point to sterling underperformance moving forward. As such, we see little room for sterling to rally sustainably from current levels sub-$1.33," they said.

BENGALURU/JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Most emerging market currencies will hold the gains they have made this year or extend them against a retreating dollar in the next six months as traders ditch the U.S. exceptionalism trade that fuelled the greenback’s dream run, a Reuters poll of FX strategists found. At the start of the year, emerging market currencies looked set for a rough ride on expectations of U.S. economic strength and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as well as trade tensions. But they have since defied expectations as U.S. President Donald Trump’s broader-than-expected but erratically implemented tariff together with a deteriorating fiscal outlook have sparked a flight from the dollar and U.S. assets. That is expected to continue, with more than half the currencies polled forecast to trade in tight ranges or gain, while the rest were expected to give back only a small portion of this year’s strong gains, according to a May 30–June 4 poll of more than 50 foreign exchange strategists. "The path of least resistance is a mildly weaker dollar at the moment," said Christopher Turner, head of FX strategy at ING. "We think (the decline) will be sort of modest and gradual and that should keep the mindset for investors to buy EM currencies on dips and that’s kind of what we’re seeing at the moment." Separately, the dollar has become a preferred funding currency as Trump’s trade war fuels recession fears and outflows from U.S. assets. The EM carry trade - borrowing in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding EM ones - has long attracted investors chasing returns. High-yielders like the South African rand and Brazilian real are up around 6.0% and 10.0% respectively this year. The real was predicted to lose only about 2.0%, while the rand is likely to trade in a tight range over the next six months. "I think the trend for emerging market currency outperformance can continue in the second half of this year, but there are downside risks to be wary of as well," said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG, referring to trade disruption and the potential hit to global growth. The Turkish lira, the weakest-performing emerging market currency so far this year, is projected to soften by another 8.0% from 39 per dollar to 42.8/dollar over the next six months. In Asia, the heavily managed Chinese yuan is expected to stay rangebound despite widespread concerns about weak demand in its economy, and a standoff with Washington over tariff policy and export controls. The Indian rupee, Korean won and Thai baht are all expected to gain just less than 1% by the end of November, pointing to steady but modest appreciation. "The big risk we see short-term for emerging market currencies is the risk of a turnaround in dollar sentiment," said Nick Rees, head of Macro Research at Monex Europe. "We do expect longer-term depreciation, but by the same token, we think the dollar looks too cheap on a fundamentals basis right now," added Rees. (Other stories from the June Reuters foreign exchange poll)

Emerging Currencies Steady With Eyes on Trade Talks, Key Data  Bloomberg.com

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The dollar's mixed trading reflects a cautious optimism, urging investors to navigate the shifting tides of risk sentiment and economic indicators for strategic gains.