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zweitstimme.bsky.social
zweitstimme.org
@zweitstimme.bsky.social
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Die wissenschaftliche Vorhersage | Berlin, Mannheim, Witten | http://zweitstimme.org | Team: @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social @lstoetze.bsky.social @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social @eliaskoch.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social & Thomas Gschwend
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beluabdala.bsky.social
Had a great time at the @zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior.
I presented my work on why minority groups vote, and how these motivations relate to turnout among LGB and ethnic minorities.
Amazing conversations and a very inspiring group!
zweitstimme.bsky.social zweitstimme.org @zweitstimme.bsky.social · 3d
🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop!

We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour.

Today’s sessions:
👉 Panel I – Elites
👉 Panel II – Participation
👉 Panel III – Party Strategies

Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!
November 24, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Reposted by zweitstimme.org
elenaleuschner.bsky.social
Had an absolutely amazing time! Great presentations + discussions, incl. impressive data collections from 160 treatments to 30,000 respondents

Thank you for the immaculate organization @eliaskoch.bsky.social @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social
zweitstimme.bsky.social zweitstimme.org @zweitstimme.bsky.social · 3d
🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop!

We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour.

Today’s sessions:
👉 Panel I – Elites
👉 Panel II – Participation
👉 Panel III – Party Strategies

Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!
November 21, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Reposted by zweitstimme.org
rdassonneville.bsky.social
So great to be in Berlin for this fantastic @zweitstimme.bsky.social workshop!

I presented joint work with @bjarneck.bsky.social and @bramwauters.bsky.social on the limited effects of mobilizing measures following the abolition of compulsory voting in Flanders.
zweitstimme.bsky.social zweitstimme.org @zweitstimme.bsky.social · 3d
🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop!

We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour.

Today’s sessions:
👉 Panel I – Elites
👉 Panel II – Participation
👉 Panel III – Party Strategies

Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!
November 21, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Reposted by zweitstimme.org
cornelius-erfort.bsky.social
Day 1 wrapped up, excited for tomorrow 🤗
zweitstimme.bsky.social zweitstimme.org @zweitstimme.bsky.social · 3d
🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop!

We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour.

Today’s sessions:
👉 Panel I – Elites
👉 Panel II – Participation
👉 Panel III – Party Strategies

Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!
November 20, 2025 at 8:31 PM
zweitstimme.bsky.social
🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop!

We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour.

Today’s sessions:
👉 Panel I – Elites
👉 Panel II – Participation
👉 Panel III – Party Strategies

Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!
November 20, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Reposted by zweitstimme.org
christinagahn.bsky.social
I‘m excited to take part in the
@zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior at the @hertieschool.bsky.social this week! I'll be presenting first results from a project with @klingelt.bsky.social on the Geography of Electioneering in Multi-Party Systems.
November 20, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Reposted by zweitstimme.org
mzes-ssdl.bsky.social
🚨 Upcoming: "What Shapes Voter Perceptions of Election Polls? The Impact of Partisanship and Visual Design"

👤 @eliaskoch.bsky.social (Hertie School)

🗓️ Wed, November 5, 13:45-15:15 CET

📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
What Shapes Voter Perceptions of Election Polls? The Impact of Partisanship and Visual Design Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom] November 05, 2025, 13:45-15:15 Abstract Election polls are a central feature of modern electoral campaigns, providing voters with information that can guide their decisions. Yet, voters are often confronted with many polls showing volatile or conflicting outcomes, and media outlets present these polls in very different ways. This raises two key questions: (1) How do voters judge the trustworthiness of a poll’s results? and (2) How does the way a poll is presented affect these perceptions? I present experimental evidence from two large-scale studies in Germany. Together, they show that both the content of a poll and the way it is presented influence voter perceptions, offering new insights into how individuals navigate modern campaigns environments. Presenter(s) Elias Koch is a Doctoral Researcher at the Research Training Group DYNAMICS (HU Berlin/Hertie School) and a Research Associate at the Hertie School in Berlin. His research explores party competition and political behaviour in established democracies, with a particular focus on shifting public opinion landscapes.
October 29, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Reposted by zweitstimme.org
mzes-ssdl.bsky.social
🕑 Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches' by @hannahrajski.bsky.social (University of Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke University).

⬇️ Zoom link and details below
mzes-ssdl.bsky.social MZES Social Science Data Lab @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · May 15
🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches"

👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni)

🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET

📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.
May 21, 2025 at 5:34 AM