ZeGoodTrader
@zegoodtrader.bsky.social
20yr Trader, Credit & Macro PM 📚 ex-GS, UBS, BNP, I like to analyze research and help you navigate markets to get your P&L up 📈
#Markets #Rates #FX #Equities
#Markets #Rates #FX #Equities
/5 Follow me @ZegoodBanker for more on Credit IG & HY, Rates and across Financial Markets !
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February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/5 Follow me @ZegoodBanker for more on Credit IG & HY, Rates and across Financial Markets !
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/4 But WHERE are German credits still CHEAP?
Imo, German credits look wide vs French in those sectors
• Utilities
• Telecoms
• Insurance
As German fiscal stimulus materializes, these sectors look like the best opportunities
#Germany #EURCredit #CorporateBonds #HighYield
Imo, German credits look wide vs French in those sectors
• Utilities
• Telecoms
• Insurance
As German fiscal stimulus materializes, these sectors look like the best opportunities
#Germany #EURCredit #CorporateBonds #HighYield
February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/4 But WHERE are German credits still CHEAP?
Imo, German credits look wide vs French in those sectors
• Utilities
• Telecoms
• Insurance
As German fiscal stimulus materializes, these sectors look like the best opportunities
#Germany #EURCredit #CorporateBonds #HighYield
Imo, German credits look wide vs French in those sectors
• Utilities
• Telecoms
• Insurance
As German fiscal stimulus materializes, these sectors look like the best opportunities
#Germany #EURCredit #CorporateBonds #HighYield
/3 🇩🇪 GERMAN STIMULUS: On-the-ground signs improving
3m % change in German domestic manufacturing orders = SURGING
Lagarde highlighted domestic economy strength, especially investment
As fiscal stimulus data arrives, tailwinds build for German credit
#GermanStimulus #Lagarde #ECB
3m % change in German domestic manufacturing orders = SURGING
Lagarde highlighted domestic economy strength, especially investment
As fiscal stimulus data arrives, tailwinds build for German credit
#GermanStimulus #Lagarde #ECB
February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/3 🇩🇪 GERMAN STIMULUS: On-the-ground signs improving
3m % change in German domestic manufacturing orders = SURGING
Lagarde highlighted domestic economy strength, especially investment
As fiscal stimulus data arrives, tailwinds build for German credit
#GermanStimulus #Lagarde #ECB
3m % change in German domestic manufacturing orders = SURGING
Lagarde highlighted domestic economy strength, especially investment
As fiscal stimulus data arrives, tailwinds build for German credit
#GermanStimulus #Lagarde #ECB
/2 ↑ A Steep curves means = plentiful retail demand for fixed-maturity credit funds!
📉 With credit cycle looking weak in Europe (ECB Bank Lending Survey shows tighter corporate lending), this backdrop persists
📅 Most economists expect next ECB cuts in Mar & Jun 2027 due to inflation undershoot
📉 With credit cycle looking weak in Europe (ECB Bank Lending Survey shows tighter corporate lending), this backdrop persists
📅 Most economists expect next ECB cuts in Mar & Jun 2027 due to inflation undershoot
February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/2 ↑ A Steep curves means = plentiful retail demand for fixed-maturity credit funds!
📉 With credit cycle looking weak in Europe (ECB Bank Lending Survey shows tighter corporate lending), this backdrop persists
📅 Most economists expect next ECB cuts in Mar & Jun 2027 due to inflation undershoot
📉 With credit cycle looking weak in Europe (ECB Bank Lending Survey shows tighter corporate lending), this backdrop persists
📅 Most economists expect next ECB cuts in Mar & Jun 2027 due to inflation undershoot
EUR software loans down -3.2pts YTD
But the loan market EX-software only down 0.6pt
Software stress NOT feeding into broader EUR loan market (yet)
Also: distress in EUR loans (5%) now close to exceeding EUR HY bonds distress. Last time this happened = Nov 2020
But the loan market EX-software only down 0.6pt
Software stress NOT feeding into broader EUR loan market (yet)
Also: distress in EUR loans (5%) now close to exceeding EUR HY bonds distress. Last time this happened = Nov 2020
February 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM
EUR software loans down -3.2pts YTD
But the loan market EX-software only down 0.6pt
Software stress NOT feeding into broader EUR loan market (yet)
Also: distress in EUR loans (5%) now close to exceeding EUR HY bonds distress. Last time this happened = Nov 2020
But the loan market EX-software only down 0.6pt
Software stress NOT feeding into broader EUR loan market (yet)
Also: distress in EUR loans (5%) now close to exceeding EUR HY bonds distress. Last time this happened = Nov 2020
EUR credit software exposure:
🟢 EUR IG: 2%
🟡 EUR HY: 2%
🔴 EUR Loans: 7% (most exposed)
vs US markets:
🔴 US IG: 4%
🔴 US HY: 12%
🔴 US Loans: 7%
EUR credit has WAY less software exposure than US = more insulated from AI disruption
🟢 EUR IG: 2%
🟡 EUR HY: 2%
🔴 EUR Loans: 7% (most exposed)
vs US markets:
🔴 US IG: 4%
🔴 US HY: 12%
🔴 US Loans: 7%
EUR credit has WAY less software exposure than US = more insulated from AI disruption
February 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM
EUR credit software exposure:
🟢 EUR IG: 2%
🟡 EUR HY: 2%
🔴 EUR Loans: 7% (most exposed)
vs US markets:
🔴 US IG: 4%
🔴 US HY: 12%
🔴 US Loans: 7%
EUR credit has WAY less software exposure than US = more insulated from AI disruption
🟢 EUR IG: 2%
🟡 EUR HY: 2%
🔴 EUR Loans: 7% (most exposed)
vs US markets:
🔴 US IG: 4%
🔴 US HY: 12%
🔴 US Loans: 7%
EUR credit has WAY less software exposure than US = more insulated from AI disruption
The AI disruption paradox:
If AI is about to disrupt huge swathes of the market, hyperscaler & semiconductor stocks should be SUPPORTED
But both are falling now
More likely: AI disruption weighs INTERMITTENTLY on markets, not all at once
DeepSeek Jan '25 = proof markets bounce back
If AI is about to disrupt huge swathes of the market, hyperscaler & semiconductor stocks should be SUPPORTED
But both are falling now
More likely: AI disruption weighs INTERMITTENTLY on markets, not all at once
DeepSeek Jan '25 = proof markets bounce back
February 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM
The AI disruption paradox:
If AI is about to disrupt huge swathes of the market, hyperscaler & semiconductor stocks should be SUPPORTED
But both are falling now
More likely: AI disruption weighs INTERMITTENTLY on markets, not all at once
DeepSeek Jan '25 = proof markets bounce back
If AI is about to disrupt huge swathes of the market, hyperscaler & semiconductor stocks should be SUPPORTED
But both are falling now
More likely: AI disruption weighs INTERMITTENTLY on markets, not all at once
DeepSeek Jan '25 = proof markets bounce back
EUR industrials/chemicals margin pressure continues
📉 BofA's EBITDA margin heatmap shows NEGATIVE momentum in Q3'25 for industrials
⚖️ While spreads for industrials/chemicals feel wide today – and could be prone to squeezes – with few signs yet that China export volume to the EU are slowing down
📉 BofA's EBITDA margin heatmap shows NEGATIVE momentum in Q3'25 for industrials
⚖️ While spreads for industrials/chemicals feel wide today – and could be prone to squeezes – with few signs yet that China export volume to the EU are slowing down
February 1, 2026 at 8:08 PM
EUR industrials/chemicals margin pressure continues
📉 BofA's EBITDA margin heatmap shows NEGATIVE momentum in Q3'25 for industrials
⚖️ While spreads for industrials/chemicals feel wide today – and could be prone to squeezes – with few signs yet that China export volume to the EU are slowing down
📉 BofA's EBITDA margin heatmap shows NEGATIVE momentum in Q3'25 for industrials
⚖️ While spreads for industrials/chemicals feel wide today – and could be prone to squeezes – with few signs yet that China export volume to the EU are slowing down
Why long periphery vs short core when EUR rallies?
>> Periphery credits are WAY more domestic:
🇮🇹 Italy: ~5% US revenues
🇵🇹 Portugal: ~8%
🇪🇸 Spain: ~10%
vs
🇩🇪 Germany: ~30% US revenues
🇳🇱 Netherlands: ~25%
USD weakness = periphery wins 😎
>> Periphery credits are WAY more domestic:
🇮🇹 Italy: ~5% US revenues
🇵🇹 Portugal: ~8%
🇪🇸 Spain: ~10%
vs
🇩🇪 Germany: ~30% US revenues
🇳🇱 Netherlands: ~25%
USD weakness = periphery wins 😎
January 31, 2026 at 8:33 AM
Why long periphery vs short core when EUR rallies?
>> Periphery credits are WAY more domestic:
🇮🇹 Italy: ~5% US revenues
🇵🇹 Portugal: ~8%
🇪🇸 Spain: ~10%
vs
🇩🇪 Germany: ~30% US revenues
🇳🇱 Netherlands: ~25%
USD weakness = periphery wins 😎
>> Periphery credits are WAY more domestic:
🇮🇹 Italy: ~5% US revenues
🇵🇹 Portugal: ~8%
🇪🇸 Spain: ~10%
vs
🇩🇪 Germany: ~30% US revenues
🇳🇱 Netherlands: ~25%
USD weakness = periphery wins 😎
🚨 TRUMP QE: Could it be the hidden credit tailwind?
While much of the Jan credit rally has come in the aftermath of de-escalation, the bullish tailwind in my view has also been “Trump QE”, in the form of GSE purchases of MBS.
→ US IG relatively more attractive
→ US IG tightens
→ EUR IG follows
While much of the Jan credit rally has come in the aftermath of de-escalation, the bullish tailwind in my view has also been “Trump QE”, in the form of GSE purchases of MBS.
→ US IG relatively more attractive
→ US IG tightens
→ EUR IG follows
January 30, 2026 at 6:01 PM
🚨 TRUMP QE: Could it be the hidden credit tailwind?
While much of the Jan credit rally has come in the aftermath of de-escalation, the bullish tailwind in my view has also been “Trump QE”, in the form of GSE purchases of MBS.
→ US IG relatively more attractive
→ US IG tightens
→ EUR IG follows
While much of the Jan credit rally has come in the aftermath of de-escalation, the bullish tailwind in my view has also been “Trump QE”, in the form of GSE purchases of MBS.
→ US IG relatively more attractive
→ US IG tightens
→ EUR IG follows
4/4 Follow me @ZegoodBanker for more on Credit IG & HY, Rates and across Financial Markets !
Like/Repost the quote below if you can:
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January 30, 2026 at 3:39 PM
4/4 Follow me @ZegoodBanker for more on Credit IG & HY, Rates and across Financial Markets !
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3/4 Market oddity: Gold rallying while real US 10yr rates RISING
🟡 Traditionally these are negatively correlated
📈 Gold usually falls when real rates rise. Not anymore.
🔀 This divergence suggests markets pricing something beyond traditional drivers
#Gold #RealRates #Fed #Powell
🟡 Traditionally these are negatively correlated
📈 Gold usually falls when real rates rise. Not anymore.
🔀 This divergence suggests markets pricing something beyond traditional drivers
#Gold #RealRates #Fed #Powell
January 30, 2026 at 3:39 PM
3/4 Market oddity: Gold rallying while real US 10yr rates RISING
🟡 Traditionally these are negatively correlated
📈 Gold usually falls when real rates rise. Not anymore.
🔀 This divergence suggests markets pricing something beyond traditional drivers
#Gold #RealRates #Fed #Powell
🟡 Traditionally these are negatively correlated
📈 Gold usually falls when real rates rise. Not anymore.
🔀 This divergence suggests markets pricing something beyond traditional drivers
#Gold #RealRates #Fed #Powell
2/4 The rally in precious metals intensified last August - exactly when Powell pivoted dovish
🌍 This isn't just geopolitics or central bank buying anymore. Gold is increasingly pricing the risk of Fed over-easing
📈 Real rates up, gold up = something's broken in the traditional playbook
#Gold
🌍 This isn't just geopolitics or central bank buying anymore. Gold is increasingly pricing the risk of Fed over-easing
📈 Real rates up, gold up = something's broken in the traditional playbook
#Gold
January 30, 2026 at 3:39 PM
2/4 The rally in precious metals intensified last August - exactly when Powell pivoted dovish
🌍 This isn't just geopolitics or central bank buying anymore. Gold is increasingly pricing the risk of Fed over-easing
📈 Real rates up, gold up = something's broken in the traditional playbook
#Gold
🌍 This isn't just geopolitics or central bank buying anymore. Gold is increasingly pricing the risk of Fed over-easing
📈 Real rates up, gold up = something's broken in the traditional playbook
#Gold