ZeGoodTrader
@zegoodtrader.bsky.social
20yr Trader, Credit & Macro PM 📚 ex-GS, UBS, BNP, I like to analyze research and help you navigate markets to get your P&L up 📈
#Markets #Rates #FX #Equities
#Markets #Rates #FX #Equities
/1 🇪🇺 ECB is "in a good place" WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MARKETS?
🔁 Lagarde repeated the mantra: data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting
🏦 For credit "good place" = steep front-end yield curves
📈 Gap between French 7-10yr IG Corp bond yields and French household deposit rates is 1.6% – 90th percentile!
🔁 Lagarde repeated the mantra: data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting
🏦 For credit "good place" = steep front-end yield curves
📈 Gap between French 7-10yr IG Corp bond yields and French household deposit rates is 1.6% – 90th percentile!
February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM
/1 🇪🇺 ECB is "in a good place" WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MARKETS?
🔁 Lagarde repeated the mantra: data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting
🏦 For credit "good place" = steep front-end yield curves
📈 Gap between French 7-10yr IG Corp bond yields and French household deposit rates is 1.6% – 90th percentile!
🔁 Lagarde repeated the mantra: data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting
🏦 For credit "good place" = steep front-end yield curves
📈 Gap between French 7-10yr IG Corp bond yields and French household deposit rates is 1.6% – 90th percentile!
⚠️ "SAAS-MAGEDDON": Damage report for EUR credit
AI disruption = much more of a EUR EQUITY story than EUR CREDIT story
• ~20 Stoxx 600 companies saw >10% 1-day drops YTD
• But "plunging bonds" metric shows NO pickup in EUR HY
Why? Software is tiny in EUR credit markets
#SaaS #EURCredit
AI disruption = much more of a EUR EQUITY story than EUR CREDIT story
• ~20 Stoxx 600 companies saw >10% 1-day drops YTD
• But "plunging bonds" metric shows NO pickup in EUR HY
Why? Software is tiny in EUR credit markets
#SaaS #EURCredit
February 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM
⚠️ "SAAS-MAGEDDON": Damage report for EUR credit
AI disruption = much more of a EUR EQUITY story than EUR CREDIT story
• ~20 Stoxx 600 companies saw >10% 1-day drops YTD
• But "plunging bonds" metric shows NO pickup in EUR HY
Why? Software is tiny in EUR credit markets
#SaaS #EURCredit
AI disruption = much more of a EUR EQUITY story than EUR CREDIT story
• ~20 Stoxx 600 companies saw >10% 1-day drops YTD
• But "plunging bonds" metric shows NO pickup in EUR HY
Why? Software is tiny in EUR credit markets
#SaaS #EURCredit
🚨 SOFTWARE IN BEAR MARKET
Tech-software stocks (IGV) now at 6yr LOW vs S&P 500
• Down 24% YTD
• Current drawdown >30%
• US software loans average price = $91
Yet this seems INCONSISTENT with AI disruption narrative. If AI disrupts everything, why are hyperscalers falling too?
Tech-software stocks (IGV) now at 6yr LOW vs S&P 500
• Down 24% YTD
• Current drawdown >30%
• US software loans average price = $91
Yet this seems INCONSISTENT with AI disruption narrative. If AI disrupts everything, why are hyperscalers falling too?
February 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM
🚨 SOFTWARE IN BEAR MARKET
Tech-software stocks (IGV) now at 6yr LOW vs S&P 500
• Down 24% YTD
• Current drawdown >30%
• US software loans average price = $91
Yet this seems INCONSISTENT with AI disruption narrative. If AI disrupts everything, why are hyperscalers falling too?
Tech-software stocks (IGV) now at 6yr LOW vs S&P 500
• Down 24% YTD
• Current drawdown >30%
• US software loans average price = $91
Yet this seems INCONSISTENT with AI disruption narrative. If AI disrupts everything, why are hyperscalers falling too?
Everyone's worried about spreads being "too tight"
Meanwhile, €1.3bn flowed INTO European credit this week alone 🚀
↗️ EUR IG: +€423mm (41 straight weeks of inflows)
↗️EUR HY: +€139mm (11 weeks running)
↗️Strategic: +€776mm
This is the most powerful - and most ignored - support for credit markets.
Meanwhile, €1.3bn flowed INTO European credit this week alone 🚀
↗️ EUR IG: +€423mm (41 straight weeks of inflows)
↗️EUR HY: +€139mm (11 weeks running)
↗️Strategic: +€776mm
This is the most powerful - and most ignored - support for credit markets.
February 6, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Everyone's worried about spreads being "too tight"
Meanwhile, €1.3bn flowed INTO European credit this week alone 🚀
↗️ EUR IG: +€423mm (41 straight weeks of inflows)
↗️EUR HY: +€139mm (11 weeks running)
↗️Strategic: +€776mm
This is the most powerful - and most ignored - support for credit markets.
Meanwhile, €1.3bn flowed INTO European credit this week alone 🚀
↗️ EUR IG: +€423mm (41 straight weeks of inflows)
↗️EUR HY: +€139mm (11 weeks running)
↗️Strategic: +€776mm
This is the most powerful - and most ignored - support for credit markets.
$25 BILLION bond deal. 48 hours later. Already underwater 💸
Oracle's monster issuance is crashing in secondary 📉
The 40-year tranche? +11bp wider to 206bp 💰
CDS rallied then reversed hard
When the largest tech deal of the year can't hold its pricing, it tells you something. 📉
Oracle's monster issuance is crashing in secondary 📉
The 40-year tranche? +11bp wider to 206bp 💰
CDS rallied then reversed hard
When the largest tech deal of the year can't hold its pricing, it tells you something. 📉
February 5, 2026 at 6:02 PM
$25 BILLION bond deal. 48 hours later. Already underwater 💸
Oracle's monster issuance is crashing in secondary 📉
The 40-year tranche? +11bp wider to 206bp 💰
CDS rallied then reversed hard
When the largest tech deal of the year can't hold its pricing, it tells you something. 📉
Oracle's monster issuance is crashing in secondary 📉
The 40-year tranche? +11bp wider to 206bp 💰
CDS rallied then reversed hard
When the largest tech deal of the year can't hold its pricing, it tells you something. 📉
⚠️ CHINA TRADE ALERT: Record $1.19tr surplus in 2025 - What does it mean for Europe? and for Markets?
📈 Key stat: The China's trade surplus with EU is now LARGER than with US for the first time ever
💥 This is crushing margins for EUR industrials/chemicals.
Sector spreads are already +100bp wider
📈 Key stat: The China's trade surplus with EU is now LARGER than with US for the first time ever
💥 This is crushing margins for EUR industrials/chemicals.
Sector spreads are already +100bp wider
February 1, 2026 at 8:08 PM
⚠️ CHINA TRADE ALERT: Record $1.19tr surplus in 2025 - What does it mean for Europe? and for Markets?
📈 Key stat: The China's trade surplus with EU is now LARGER than with US for the first time ever
💥 This is crushing margins for EUR industrials/chemicals.
Sector spreads are already +100bp wider
📈 Key stat: The China's trade surplus with EU is now LARGER than with US for the first time ever
💥 This is crushing margins for EUR industrials/chemicals.
Sector spreads are already +100bp wider
🇫🇷 FRENCH CREDIT OPPORTUNITY 🧠
🔧 With French budget uncertainty "fading", 10yr OAT spreads tightened.
🚦 But French credit spreads are lagging this move!
📉 Only 3% of French credits now yield < duration-matched OATs
▶️ I would expect this is clearly short-term bullish tailwind for French banks
🔧 With French budget uncertainty "fading", 10yr OAT spreads tightened.
🚦 But French credit spreads are lagging this move!
📉 Only 3% of French credits now yield < duration-matched OATs
▶️ I would expect this is clearly short-term bullish tailwind for French banks
February 1, 2026 at 8:27 AM
🇫🇷 FRENCH CREDIT OPPORTUNITY 🧠
🔧 With French budget uncertainty "fading", 10yr OAT spreads tightened.
🚦 But French credit spreads are lagging this move!
📉 Only 3% of French credits now yield < duration-matched OATs
▶️ I would expect this is clearly short-term bullish tailwind for French banks
🔧 With French budget uncertainty "fading", 10yr OAT spreads tightened.
🚦 But French credit spreads are lagging this move!
📉 Only 3% of French credits now yield < duration-matched OATs
▶️ I would expect this is clearly short-term bullish tailwind for French banks
What does USD weakness mean for Markets? 💲
🔺 EM: Dollar weakness is good for EM assets. YTD EM equities are up +12.5%, well ahead of DM stocks for the year (+1.5%)
🔺 JUNK BONDS: For credit, it's better for HY credit than for IG, largely because it has a more share of EM-relevant credits in it.
🔺 EM: Dollar weakness is good for EM assets. YTD EM equities are up +12.5%, well ahead of DM stocks for the year (+1.5%)
🔺 JUNK BONDS: For credit, it's better for HY credit than for IG, largely because it has a more share of EM-relevant credits in it.
January 31, 2026 at 7:27 PM
What does USD weakness mean for Markets? 💲
🔺 EM: Dollar weakness is good for EM assets. YTD EM equities are up +12.5%, well ahead of DM stocks for the year (+1.5%)
🔺 JUNK BONDS: For credit, it's better for HY credit than for IG, largely because it has a more share of EM-relevant credits in it.
🔺 EM: Dollar weakness is good for EM assets. YTD EM equities are up +12.5%, well ahead of DM stocks for the year (+1.5%)
🔺 JUNK BONDS: For credit, it's better for HY credit than for IG, largely because it has a more share of EM-relevant credits in it.
🇪🇺 EURO STRENGTH = HEADWIND FOR EXPORTERS
📈 Euro Effective Exchange Rate hit another ALL-TIME HIGH this week (chart)
📉 During 2025's USD weakness (Jan-Sep), export-focused EUR credits underperformed domestic credits by ~30bp ! (Chart)
HOW DO YOU PLAY IT?
👉 I prefer to be Long periphery vs short core
📈 Euro Effective Exchange Rate hit another ALL-TIME HIGH this week (chart)
📉 During 2025's USD weakness (Jan-Sep), export-focused EUR credits underperformed domestic credits by ~30bp ! (Chart)
HOW DO YOU PLAY IT?
👉 I prefer to be Long periphery vs short core
January 31, 2026 at 8:33 AM
🇪🇺 EURO STRENGTH = HEADWIND FOR EXPORTERS
📈 Euro Effective Exchange Rate hit another ALL-TIME HIGH this week (chart)
📉 During 2025's USD weakness (Jan-Sep), export-focused EUR credits underperformed domestic credits by ~30bp ! (Chart)
HOW DO YOU PLAY IT?
👉 I prefer to be Long periphery vs short core
📈 Euro Effective Exchange Rate hit another ALL-TIME HIGH this week (chart)
📉 During 2025's USD weakness (Jan-Sep), export-focused EUR credits underperformed domestic credits by ~30bp ! (Chart)
HOW DO YOU PLAY IT?
👉 I prefer to be Long periphery vs short core
📊 CURVE TRADE ALERT: Time to fill the belly ❗
→ EUR IG curves are now INCREDIBLY steep at the front-end:
🔥 5-7yr vs 1-3yr spread pickup = 80% (99th percentile post-GFC!)
🌟 1-3yr NFs -7bp YTD (best Jan in 3yrs)
🛡️ Flight-to-quality + portfolio trades = front-end richening
Belly = value now !
→ EUR IG curves are now INCREDIBLY steep at the front-end:
🔥 5-7yr vs 1-3yr spread pickup = 80% (99th percentile post-GFC!)
🌟 1-3yr NFs -7bp YTD (best Jan in 3yrs)
🛡️ Flight-to-quality + portfolio trades = front-end richening
Belly = value now !
January 30, 2026 at 6:01 PM
📊 CURVE TRADE ALERT: Time to fill the belly ❗
→ EUR IG curves are now INCREDIBLY steep at the front-end:
🔥 5-7yr vs 1-3yr spread pickup = 80% (99th percentile post-GFC!)
🌟 1-3yr NFs -7bp YTD (best Jan in 3yrs)
🛡️ Flight-to-quality + portfolio trades = front-end richening
Belly = value now !
→ EUR IG curves are now INCREDIBLY steep at the front-end:
🔥 5-7yr vs 1-3yr spread pickup = 80% (99th percentile post-GFC!)
🌟 1-3yr NFs -7bp YTD (best Jan in 3yrs)
🛡️ Flight-to-quality + portfolio trades = front-end richening
Belly = value now !
1/4 🥇 METALS MANIA: Breathtaking stats from BofA 🔢
All precious metals up >20% YTD
🪙 S&P at 12yr LOW in gold terms
💰 Gold market cap now DOUBLE the Mag 7
⚡ Silver volatility > Bitcoin volatility
🔔 Gold doubled in exactly 1 year ($2,759 → $5,535)
Markets screaming Fed policy error risk 🚨
#Gold
All precious metals up >20% YTD
🪙 S&P at 12yr LOW in gold terms
💰 Gold market cap now DOUBLE the Mag 7
⚡ Silver volatility > Bitcoin volatility
🔔 Gold doubled in exactly 1 year ($2,759 → $5,535)
Markets screaming Fed policy error risk 🚨
#Gold
January 30, 2026 at 3:39 PM
1/4 🥇 METALS MANIA: Breathtaking stats from BofA 🔢
All precious metals up >20% YTD
🪙 S&P at 12yr LOW in gold terms
💰 Gold market cap now DOUBLE the Mag 7
⚡ Silver volatility > Bitcoin volatility
🔔 Gold doubled in exactly 1 year ($2,759 → $5,535)
Markets screaming Fed policy error risk 🚨
#Gold
All precious metals up >20% YTD
🪙 S&P at 12yr LOW in gold terms
💰 Gold market cap now DOUBLE the Mag 7
⚡ Silver volatility > Bitcoin volatility
🔔 Gold doubled in exactly 1 year ($2,759 → $5,535)
Markets screaming Fed policy error risk 🚨
#Gold
1/5 📊 WHAT'S THE MAIN POSITIVE CATALYST INVESTORS ALWAYS FORGET? 🧵
💶 TECHNICALS! as money keep pouring into markets (including Gold, Silver & Equities) while Euro credit flows keeps attracting capital!
📈 Latest data for week ending Jan 28 shows continued momentum in EUR IG and Strategic funds
💶 TECHNICALS! as money keep pouring into markets (including Gold, Silver & Equities) while Euro credit flows keeps attracting capital!
📈 Latest data for week ending Jan 28 shows continued momentum in EUR IG and Strategic funds
January 30, 2026 at 11:03 AM
1/5 📊 WHAT'S THE MAIN POSITIVE CATALYST INVESTORS ALWAYS FORGET? 🧵
💶 TECHNICALS! as money keep pouring into markets (including Gold, Silver & Equities) while Euro credit flows keeps attracting capital!
📈 Latest data for week ending Jan 28 shows continued momentum in EUR IG and Strategic funds
💶 TECHNICALS! as money keep pouring into markets (including Gold, Silver & Equities) while Euro credit flows keeps attracting capital!
📈 Latest data for week ending Jan 28 shows continued momentum in EUR IG and Strategic funds
STRONG day for Europe's Primary market with @IBM leading with a €3.5bio four part bond sales despite WEAK Credit markets 📉
🔥 As I mentioned below, deal went VERY well with books 7.2x covered on the 12y bond (although much less than the crazy @Carac_epargne that we earlier saw this week at x20)
/1
🔥 As I mentioned below, deal went VERY well with books 7.2x covered on the 12y bond (although much less than the crazy @Carac_epargne that we earlier saw this week at x20)
/1
January 29, 2026 at 9:41 PM
STRONG day for Europe's Primary market with @IBM leading with a €3.5bio four part bond sales despite WEAK Credit markets 📉
🔥 As I mentioned below, deal went VERY well with books 7.2x covered on the 12y bond (although much less than the crazy @Carac_epargne that we earlier saw this week at x20)
/1
🔥 As I mentioned below, deal went VERY well with books 7.2x covered on the 12y bond (although much less than the crazy @Carac_epargne that we earlier saw this week at x20)
/1
🚀 TECH ALERT: IBM kicked off big tech bond sales spree! What does it mean for Markets?🖥️
💰 IBM coming to raise $7bio in USD and EUR bonds, highlights the surge in tech debt as companies scramble to fund AI initiatives
🌍 A rush of debt sales from Big Tech is expected to flood credit markets globally
💰 IBM coming to raise $7bio in USD and EUR bonds, highlights the surge in tech debt as companies scramble to fund AI initiatives
🌍 A rush of debt sales from Big Tech is expected to flood credit markets globally
January 29, 2026 at 5:56 PM
🚀 TECH ALERT: IBM kicked off big tech bond sales spree! What does it mean for Markets?🖥️
💰 IBM coming to raise $7bio in USD and EUR bonds, highlights the surge in tech debt as companies scramble to fund AI initiatives
🌍 A rush of debt sales from Big Tech is expected to flood credit markets globally
💰 IBM coming to raise $7bio in USD and EUR bonds, highlights the surge in tech debt as companies scramble to fund AI initiatives
🌍 A rush of debt sales from Big Tech is expected to flood credit markets globally
Gold above 5.5k, silver up ~200% in a month, and oil only small up while the Fed keeps rates on hold and calls inflation “somewhat elevated.” 📈
watching a textbook regime shift: capital is crowding into *monetary* assets while macro narrative still pretends this is just another mid‑cycle pause. 💰
watching a textbook regime shift: capital is crowding into *monetary* assets while macro narrative still pretends this is just another mid‑cycle pause. 💰
January 29, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Gold above 5.5k, silver up ~200% in a month, and oil only small up while the Fed keeps rates on hold and calls inflation “somewhat elevated.” 📈
watching a textbook regime shift: capital is crowding into *monetary* assets while macro narrative still pretends this is just another mid‑cycle pause. 💰
watching a textbook regime shift: capital is crowding into *monetary* assets while macro narrative still pretends this is just another mid‑cycle pause. 💰
WOW! Yesterday CARAC - a French financial (expected BBB+ S&P) came to the market to issue €300m of a Tier2 20nc10 at MS+160 💹
🔥 Demand was SO big for the little french insurance: it almost reached €6 billions euros (20x size offered !)
🔥 Demand was SO big for the little french insurance: it almost reached €6 billions euros (20x size offered !)
January 29, 2026 at 9:30 AM
WOW! Yesterday CARAC - a French financial (expected BBB+ S&P) came to the market to issue €300m of a Tier2 20nc10 at MS+160 💹
🔥 Demand was SO big for the little french insurance: it almost reached €6 billions euros (20x size offered !)
🔥 Demand was SO big for the little french insurance: it almost reached €6 billions euros (20x size offered !)
Historic market stat:
Global small cap stocks have outperformed large caps EVERY SINGLE DAY in 2026.
That's never happened before.
Meanwhile:
• US regional banks +9% YTD
• Value outperforming growth
• CCCs 50bp tighter YTD
Broadening risk appetite = continued HY compression. 1/
Global small cap stocks have outperformed large caps EVERY SINGLE DAY in 2026.
That's never happened before.
Meanwhile:
• US regional banks +9% YTD
• Value outperforming growth
• CCCs 50bp tighter YTD
Broadening risk appetite = continued HY compression. 1/
January 29, 2026 at 7:27 AM
Historic market stat:
Global small cap stocks have outperformed large caps EVERY SINGLE DAY in 2026.
That's never happened before.
Meanwhile:
• US regional banks +9% YTD
• Value outperforming growth
• CCCs 50bp tighter YTD
Broadening risk appetite = continued HY compression. 1/
Global small cap stocks have outperformed large caps EVERY SINGLE DAY in 2026.
That's never happened before.
Meanwhile:
• US regional banks +9% YTD
• Value outperforming growth
• CCCs 50bp tighter YTD
Broadening risk appetite = continued HY compression. 1/
🇯🇵 Japan real policy rates still NEGATIVE despite hiking to 1995 highs.
Inflation ~3% vs policy rate barely positive.
Compare that to:
🇪🇺 ECB: real rates positive
🇺🇸 Fed: real rates positive
🇬🇧 BoE: real rates positive
Japan is stuck. Can't tighten fast enough without breaking something.
#JPY
Inflation ~3% vs policy rate barely positive.
Compare that to:
🇪🇺 ECB: real rates positive
🇺🇸 Fed: real rates positive
🇬🇧 BoE: real rates positive
Japan is stuck. Can't tighten fast enough without breaking something.
#JPY
January 28, 2026 at 8:26 PM
🇯🇵 Japan real policy rates still NEGATIVE despite hiking to 1995 highs.
Inflation ~3% vs policy rate barely positive.
Compare that to:
🇪🇺 ECB: real rates positive
🇺🇸 Fed: real rates positive
🇬🇧 BoE: real rates positive
Japan is stuck. Can't tighten fast enough without breaking something.
#JPY
Inflation ~3% vs policy rate barely positive.
Compare that to:
🇪🇺 ECB: real rates positive
🇺🇸 Fed: real rates positive
🇬🇧 BoE: real rates positive
Japan is stuck. Can't tighten fast enough without breaking something.
#JPY
DID YOU KNOW? 📈 Value vs Growth stocks outperformance has historically been a reliable leading indicator for EUR HY compression.
🔥 And It's happening again ! And CCCs leading the charge: 50bp tighter YTD while markets navigate tariff/rate volatility.
The message? Risk-on is real
#HighYield
🔥 And It's happening again ! And CCCs leading the charge: 50bp tighter YTD while markets navigate tariff/rate volatility.
The message? Risk-on is real
#HighYield
January 28, 2026 at 8:39 AM
DID YOU KNOW? 📈 Value vs Growth stocks outperformance has historically been a reliable leading indicator for EUR HY compression.
🔥 And It's happening again ! And CCCs leading the charge: 50bp tighter YTD while markets navigate tariff/rate volatility.
The message? Risk-on is real
#HighYield
🔥 And It's happening again ! And CCCs leading the charge: 50bp tighter YTD while markets navigate tariff/rate volatility.
The message? Risk-on is real
#HighYield
So...
🥈 SILVER HAD ITS BEST DAY EVER (and best January start)
💴 JAPANESE BONDS LARGEST 1D JUMP (+27bp)
💲 DOLLAR IS AT ITS WORST SINCE 2022
but...
🧐 but ONE ASSET CLASS HASN'T MOVED !
Can you guess? Find out below! 🧵
#Silver #JPY #Volatility #Japan #DXY
🥈 SILVER HAD ITS BEST DAY EVER (and best January start)
💴 JAPANESE BONDS LARGEST 1D JUMP (+27bp)
💲 DOLLAR IS AT ITS WORST SINCE 2022
but...
🧐 but ONE ASSET CLASS HASN'T MOVED !
Can you guess? Find out below! 🧵
#Silver #JPY #Volatility #Japan #DXY
January 27, 2026 at 5:27 PM
So...
🥈 SILVER HAD ITS BEST DAY EVER (and best January start)
💴 JAPANESE BONDS LARGEST 1D JUMP (+27bp)
💲 DOLLAR IS AT ITS WORST SINCE 2022
but...
🧐 but ONE ASSET CLASS HASN'T MOVED !
Can you guess? Find out below! 🧵
#Silver #JPY #Volatility #Japan #DXY
🥈 SILVER HAD ITS BEST DAY EVER (and best January start)
💴 JAPANESE BONDS LARGEST 1D JUMP (+27bp)
💲 DOLLAR IS AT ITS WORST SINCE 2022
but...
🧐 but ONE ASSET CLASS HASN'T MOVED !
Can you guess? Find out below! 🧵
#Silver #JPY #Volatility #Japan #DXY
⚠️ Weekend newsflow turning NEGATIVE - three red flags to watch 🚩
1) US govt shutdown risk spiking as Dems block DHS funding post-Minneapolis
2) Trump's impetuous 100% Canada tariff threat (won't happen, but sentiment erosion is real)
3) BlackRock TCP Capital (BDC) warned Q4 NAV -19% Q/Q -
1) US govt shutdown risk spiking as Dems block DHS funding post-Minneapolis
2) Trump's impetuous 100% Canada tariff threat (won't happen, but sentiment erosion is real)
3) BlackRock TCP Capital (BDC) warned Q4 NAV -19% Q/Q -
January 25, 2026 at 10:47 PM
⚠️ Weekend newsflow turning NEGATIVE - three red flags to watch 🚩
1) US govt shutdown risk spiking as Dems block DHS funding post-Minneapolis
2) Trump's impetuous 100% Canada tariff threat (won't happen, but sentiment erosion is real)
3) BlackRock TCP Capital (BDC) warned Q4 NAV -19% Q/Q -
1) US govt shutdown risk spiking as Dems block DHS funding post-Minneapolis
2) Trump's impetuous 100% Canada tariff threat (won't happen, but sentiment erosion is real)
3) BlackRock TCP Capital (BDC) warned Q4 NAV -19% Q/Q -
The geopolitical situation this week should've been a wake-up call for European manufacturing. 🌍
Autos and Chemicals are about to get a strategic boost. 🚗🧪
Defense procurement isn't just about tanks anymore. It's drones, vehicles, materials. 🛡️🚚🔧
Renault already moving. Who's next? 🚗
Autos and Chemicals are about to get a strategic boost. 🚗🧪
Defense procurement isn't just about tanks anymore. It's drones, vehicles, materials. 🛡️🚚🔧
Renault already moving. Who's next? 🚗
January 25, 2026 at 8:56 PM
The geopolitical situation this week should've been a wake-up call for European manufacturing. 🌍
Autos and Chemicals are about to get a strategic boost. 🚗🧪
Defense procurement isn't just about tanks anymore. It's drones, vehicles, materials. 🛡️🚚🔧
Renault already moving. Who's next? 🚗
Autos and Chemicals are about to get a strategic boost. 🚗🧪
Defense procurement isn't just about tanks anymore. It's drones, vehicles, materials. 🛡️🚚🔧
Renault already moving. Who's next? 🚗
🔥 COMPLACENCY ALERT?
CCC bonds (junkiest junk) CRUSHING it: +1.15% YTD vs UST -0.2%!
6 CCC deals in Jan totaling $3.5bn = 15% of total HY supply (vs only 2 deals/$630m = 3% last Jan).
Barclays shows CCCs trading CHEAP vs single-Bs historically.
"If you don't invest in CCCs you get left behind"
CCC bonds (junkiest junk) CRUSHING it: +1.15% YTD vs UST -0.2%!
6 CCC deals in Jan totaling $3.5bn = 15% of total HY supply (vs only 2 deals/$630m = 3% last Jan).
Barclays shows CCCs trading CHEAP vs single-Bs historically.
"If you don't invest in CCCs you get left behind"
January 25, 2026 at 2:46 PM
🔥 COMPLACENCY ALERT?
CCC bonds (junkiest junk) CRUSHING it: +1.15% YTD vs UST -0.2%!
6 CCC deals in Jan totaling $3.5bn = 15% of total HY supply (vs only 2 deals/$630m = 3% last Jan).
Barclays shows CCCs trading CHEAP vs single-Bs historically.
"If you don't invest in CCCs you get left behind"
CCC bonds (junkiest junk) CRUSHING it: +1.15% YTD vs UST -0.2%!
6 CCC deals in Jan totaling $3.5bn = 15% of total HY supply (vs only 2 deals/$630m = 3% last Jan).
Barclays shows CCCs trading CHEAP vs single-Bs historically.
"If you don't invest in CCCs you get left behind"
Watching investor behavior this week was fascinating. 🧐
Headline risk that should've triggered 20-30bp widening?
Barely moved 3bp. 😅
Everyone was "buying the dip" BEFORE tensions calmed. 📈
Cash on sidelines is getting uncomfortable. That capitulation trade is coming. Question is when? 💰
Headline risk that should've triggered 20-30bp widening?
Barely moved 3bp. 😅
Everyone was "buying the dip" BEFORE tensions calmed. 📈
Cash on sidelines is getting uncomfortable. That capitulation trade is coming. Question is when? 💰
January 25, 2026 at 1:34 AM
Watching investor behavior this week was fascinating. 🧐
Headline risk that should've triggered 20-30bp widening?
Barely moved 3bp. 😅
Everyone was "buying the dip" BEFORE tensions calmed. 📈
Cash on sidelines is getting uncomfortable. That capitulation trade is coming. Question is when? 💰
Headline risk that should've triggered 20-30bp widening?
Barely moved 3bp. 😅
Everyone was "buying the dip" BEFORE tensions calmed. 📈
Cash on sidelines is getting uncomfortable. That capitulation trade is coming. Question is when? 💰
If threats of military action between NATO allies don't widen spreads, what will? 🤔
iTraxx Main moved just 3bp peak-to-trough this week—investors were "buying-the-dip" before tensions even calmed. EUR IG/HY ended the week 3bp/5bp *tighter*.
Welcome to the post-fatigue market 📉➡️📈 #CreditMarkets
iTraxx Main moved just 3bp peak-to-trough this week—investors were "buying-the-dip" before tensions even calmed. EUR IG/HY ended the week 3bp/5bp *tighter*.
Welcome to the post-fatigue market 📉➡️📈 #CreditMarkets
January 24, 2026 at 2:10 PM
If threats of military action between NATO allies don't widen spreads, what will? 🤔
iTraxx Main moved just 3bp peak-to-trough this week—investors were "buying-the-dip" before tensions even calmed. EUR IG/HY ended the week 3bp/5bp *tighter*.
Welcome to the post-fatigue market 📉➡️📈 #CreditMarkets
iTraxx Main moved just 3bp peak-to-trough this week—investors were "buying-the-dip" before tensions even calmed. EUR IG/HY ended the week 3bp/5bp *tighter*.
Welcome to the post-fatigue market 📉➡️📈 #CreditMarkets