Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman.bsky.social
I invest in developing economies and study how sanctions are reshaping West Asia and the world. CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. Adjunct Prof at Johns Hopkins SAIS.
The Trump administration has issued GL 25, effectively lifting sanctions on Syria in a single executive action.
This is an extraordinary move. USG has historically approached sanctions relief with complicated, incremental methods.
This one big step could make a big difference.
This is an extraordinary move. USG has historically approached sanctions relief with complicated, incremental methods.
This one big step could make a big difference.
May 24, 2025 at 8:06 AM
The Trump administration has issued GL 25, effectively lifting sanctions on Syria in a single executive action.
This is an extraordinary move. USG has historically approached sanctions relief with complicated, incremental methods.
This one big step could make a big difference.
This is an extraordinary move. USG has historically approached sanctions relief with complicated, incremental methods.
This one big step could make a big difference.
On the @dropsitenews.com podcast with @mazmhussain.bsky.social about…
The president’s unchecked authority to start economic wars
The dangerous way US economic policy is now a subset of national security policy
The impact of Trump’s tariffs on de-dollarization
www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-decl...
The president’s unchecked authority to start economic wars
The dangerous way US economic policy is now a subset of national security policy
The impact of Trump’s tariffs on de-dollarization
www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-decl...
April 11, 2025 at 7:18 PM
On the @dropsitenews.com podcast with @mazmhussain.bsky.social about…
The president’s unchecked authority to start economic wars
The dangerous way US economic policy is now a subset of national security policy
The impact of Trump’s tariffs on de-dollarization
www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-decl...
The president’s unchecked authority to start economic wars
The dangerous way US economic policy is now a subset of national security policy
The impact of Trump’s tariffs on de-dollarization
www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-decl...
NEW SEASON: The Sanctions Age podcast is back!
I'll be speaking with amazing guests, including Eddie Fishman, Golnar Motevalli, Kyle Chan, Erich Ferrari, and Eva Dou.
Subscribe to the newsletter to make sure you don't miss the new episodes.
www.thesanctionsage.com/p/the-sancti...
I'll be speaking with amazing guests, including Eddie Fishman, Golnar Motevalli, Kyle Chan, Erich Ferrari, and Eva Dou.
Subscribe to the newsletter to make sure you don't miss the new episodes.
www.thesanctionsage.com/p/the-sancti...
April 9, 2025 at 11:47 AM
NEW SEASON: The Sanctions Age podcast is back!
I'll be speaking with amazing guests, including Eddie Fishman, Golnar Motevalli, Kyle Chan, Erich Ferrari, and Eva Dou.
Subscribe to the newsletter to make sure you don't miss the new episodes.
www.thesanctionsage.com/p/the-sancti...
I'll be speaking with amazing guests, including Eddie Fishman, Golnar Motevalli, Kyle Chan, Erich Ferrari, and Eva Dou.
Subscribe to the newsletter to make sure you don't miss the new episodes.
www.thesanctionsage.com/p/the-sancti...
In Q2 2015, just 21,000 electric or hybrid cars were sold in China. This was the equivalent of 0.4% of all cars sold that quarter.
In Q4 of last year, 4.5 million of these cars were sold, the equivalent of 46% of all automobile sales.
From 0% to 50% in just 10 years...
In Q4 of last year, 4.5 million of these cars were sold, the equivalent of 46% of all automobile sales.
From 0% to 50% in just 10 years...
April 3, 2025 at 9:59 PM
In Q2 2015, just 21,000 electric or hybrid cars were sold in China. This was the equivalent of 0.4% of all cars sold that quarter.
In Q4 of last year, 4.5 million of these cars were sold, the equivalent of 46% of all automobile sales.
From 0% to 50% in just 10 years...
In Q4 of last year, 4.5 million of these cars were sold, the equivalent of 46% of all automobile sales.
From 0% to 50% in just 10 years...
4. Developing a new financial system is hard. As McDowell notes in "Bucking the Buck," just because a country like China may adopt anti-dollar policies does not mean that leads to de-dollarization.
Not all of the adopted policies (and technologies) will succeed!
Not all of the adopted policies (and technologies) will succeed!
April 1, 2025 at 10:14 PM
4. Developing a new financial system is hard. As McDowell notes in "Bucking the Buck," just because a country like China may adopt anti-dollar policies does not mean that leads to de-dollarization.
Not all of the adopted policies (and technologies) will succeed!
Not all of the adopted policies (and technologies) will succeed!
1. Why hasn't China made bigger strides to develop an alternative to the US-led global financial system?
We've been talking about "de-dollarization" for years and the RMB still accounts for a tiny fraction of global trade...
What if China isn't *really* trying to de-dollarize?
We've been talking about "de-dollarization" for years and the RMB still accounts for a tiny fraction of global trade...
What if China isn't *really* trying to de-dollarize?
April 1, 2025 at 10:14 PM
1. Why hasn't China made bigger strides to develop an alternative to the US-led global financial system?
We've been talking about "de-dollarization" for years and the RMB still accounts for a tiny fraction of global trade...
What if China isn't *really* trying to de-dollarize?
We've been talking about "de-dollarization" for years and the RMB still accounts for a tiny fraction of global trade...
What if China isn't *really* trying to de-dollarize?
The whole trend of using ChatGPT to create Studio Ghibli images comes across as pretty sinister if you consider that Miyazaki is still alive and went on the record years ago about his aversion to AI image generation.
Overnight, his life’s work has been completely trivialised!
Overnight, his life’s work has been completely trivialised!
March 27, 2025 at 8:41 PM
The whole trend of using ChatGPT to create Studio Ghibli images comes across as pretty sinister if you consider that Miyazaki is still alive and went on the record years ago about his aversion to AI image generation.
Overnight, his life’s work has been completely trivialised!
Overnight, his life’s work has been completely trivialised!
When a currency crunch led to falling imports of car parts from China, Iranian automakers stumbled upon an unexpected solution.
They started trading nuts for bolts.
I unpack the latest example of the (sometimes wacky) ways Iran adapts to sanctions:
www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
They started trading nuts for bolts.
I unpack the latest example of the (sometimes wacky) ways Iran adapts to sanctions:
www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
March 27, 2025 at 5:58 PM
When a currency crunch led to falling imports of car parts from China, Iranian automakers stumbled upon an unexpected solution.
They started trading nuts for bolts.
I unpack the latest example of the (sometimes wacky) ways Iran adapts to sanctions:
www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
They started trading nuts for bolts.
I unpack the latest example of the (sometimes wacky) ways Iran adapts to sanctions:
www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
Still can’t get over the fact that BYD basically operates its own navy.
Each one of these ro-ro ships can deliver 7,000 vehicles.
So far BYD has four ships in its fleet. Four more will be in service by early 2026.
Each one of these ro-ro ships can deliver 7,000 vehicles.
So far BYD has four ships in its fleet. Four more will be in service by early 2026.
March 22, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Still can’t get over the fact that BYD basically operates its own navy.
Each one of these ro-ro ships can deliver 7,000 vehicles.
So far BYD has four ships in its fleet. Four more will be in service by early 2026.
Each one of these ro-ro ships can deliver 7,000 vehicles.
So far BYD has four ships in its fleet. Four more will be in service by early 2026.
Many see the repression at Columbia as just the latest overreach by Trump. But the American state's antagonism towards universities, especially Columbia, deepened during the War on Terror.
Susan Sontag, writing days after September 11, warned us that "everything is not O.K."
Susan Sontag, writing days after September 11, warned us that "everything is not O.K."
March 22, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Many see the repression at Columbia as just the latest overreach by Trump. But the American state's antagonism towards universities, especially Columbia, deepened during the War on Terror.
Susan Sontag, writing days after September 11, warned us that "everything is not O.K."
Susan Sontag, writing days after September 11, warned us that "everything is not O.K."
Tesla stock is down around 25% since the start of the year, whereas BYD has gained nearly 50%.
If American institutional investors continue cycling out of Tesla and start cycling into BYD and other Chinese OEMs, how will that change the outlook for US-China relations?
If American institutional investors continue cycling out of Tesla and start cycling into BYD and other Chinese OEMs, how will that change the outlook for US-China relations?
February 25, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Tesla stock is down around 25% since the start of the year, whereas BYD has gained nearly 50%.
If American institutional investors continue cycling out of Tesla and start cycling into BYD and other Chinese OEMs, how will that change the outlook for US-China relations?
If American institutional investors continue cycling out of Tesla and start cycling into BYD and other Chinese OEMs, how will that change the outlook for US-China relations?
China and the EU are the world's two major exporters of manufactured goods and the US is the key market.
China's surplus with the US is larger than that of the EU.
But in proportion to the size of its own manufacturing sector, the EU's surplus is now larger than that of China.
China's surplus with the US is larger than that of the EU.
But in proportion to the size of its own manufacturing sector, the EU's surplus is now larger than that of China.
February 23, 2025 at 10:14 PM
China and the EU are the world's two major exporters of manufactured goods and the US is the key market.
China's surplus with the US is larger than that of the EU.
But in proportion to the size of its own manufacturing sector, the EU's surplus is now larger than that of China.
China's surplus with the US is larger than that of the EU.
But in proportion to the size of its own manufacturing sector, the EU's surplus is now larger than that of China.
I've been playing around with various ways of contextualizing the size the China's manufactured goods surplus. That Setser piece triggered a lot of debate!
One useful comparator might be the size of the manufacturing sector. Here's that analysis for China, Germany, and Japan.
One useful comparator might be the size of the manufacturing sector. Here's that analysis for China, Germany, and Japan.
February 21, 2025 at 10:35 PM
I've been playing around with various ways of contextualizing the size the China's manufactured goods surplus. That Setser piece triggered a lot of debate!
One useful comparator might be the size of the manufacturing sector. Here's that analysis for China, Germany, and Japan.
One useful comparator might be the size of the manufacturing sector. Here's that analysis for China, Germany, and Japan.
11. Setser's analysis includes all manufactured goods. But most of the concern about "overcapacity" in China is focused on machinery and transport equipment (SITC Section 7).
Focusing on this category, China's surplus is totally in line with that of Germany and Japan.
Focusing on this category, China's surplus is totally in line with that of Germany and Japan.
February 19, 2025 at 10:32 PM
11. Setser's analysis includes all manufactured goods. But most of the concern about "overcapacity" in China is focused on machinery and transport equipment (SITC Section 7).
Focusing on this category, China's surplus is totally in line with that of Germany and Japan.
Focusing on this category, China's surplus is totally in line with that of Germany and Japan.
7. Let's look at the Chinese, German, and Japanese manufactured goods surplus relative to their national GDP (I've used the same data).
When we do that, the picture is suddenly very different.
China's surplus-to-GDP ratio is only 2pp higher than that of Germany as of 2023.
When we do that, the picture is suddenly very different.
China's surplus-to-GDP ratio is only 2pp higher than that of Germany as of 2023.
February 19, 2025 at 10:32 PM
7. Let's look at the Chinese, German, and Japanese manufactured goods surplus relative to their national GDP (I've used the same data).
When we do that, the picture is suddenly very different.
China's surplus-to-GDP ratio is only 2pp higher than that of Germany as of 2023.
When we do that, the picture is suddenly very different.
China's surplus-to-GDP ratio is only 2pp higher than that of Germany as of 2023.
1. Brad Seter's new NYT op-ed argues that China presents a "danger the world economy" because of its enormous trade surplus in manufactured goods.
I think he is identifying an important issue about imbalances.
But his argument and this chart ⬇ may exaggerate the problem.
I think he is identifying an important issue about imbalances.
But his argument and this chart ⬇ may exaggerate the problem.
February 19, 2025 at 10:32 PM
1. Brad Seter's new NYT op-ed argues that China presents a "danger the world economy" because of its enormous trade surplus in manufactured goods.
I think he is identifying an important issue about imbalances.
But his argument and this chart ⬇ may exaggerate the problem.
I think he is identifying an important issue about imbalances.
But his argument and this chart ⬇ may exaggerate the problem.
Rubio's recent comments suggest that the Trump admin thinks it can peel Russia away from China.
But the Russian economy whiplashed under sanctions to total dependence on Chinese capital goods.
In 2023, Russia imported 6x more capital goods from China than from the EU.
But the Russian economy whiplashed under sanctions to total dependence on Chinese capital goods.
In 2023, Russia imported 6x more capital goods from China than from the EU.
February 18, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Rubio's recent comments suggest that the Trump admin thinks it can peel Russia away from China.
But the Russian economy whiplashed under sanctions to total dependence on Chinese capital goods.
In 2023, Russia imported 6x more capital goods from China than from the EU.
But the Russian economy whiplashed under sanctions to total dependence on Chinese capital goods.
In 2023, Russia imported 6x more capital goods from China than from the EU.
The striking thing about this chart isn't China's manufacturing dominance across key green technologies, but rather how far behind the US lags.
The EU did better to protect its industrial base in the face of the first "China shock," which suggests domestic policies matter most.
The EU did better to protect its industrial base in the face of the first "China shock," which suggests domestic policies matter most.
February 18, 2025 at 9:33 AM
The striking thing about this chart isn't China's manufacturing dominance across key green technologies, but rather how far behind the US lags.
The EU did better to protect its industrial base in the face of the first "China shock," which suggests domestic policies matter most.
The EU did better to protect its industrial base in the face of the first "China shock," which suggests domestic policies matter most.
If you're following me here (thank you, thank you), you should also consider following the new page for the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation.
Our team is publishing some really unique research and analysis on economic development and economic diplomacy in West Asia!
Link here:
bsky.app/profile/bour...
Our team is publishing some really unique research and analysis on economic development and economic diplomacy in West Asia!
Link here:
bsky.app/profile/bour...
February 17, 2025 at 5:07 PM
If you're following me here (thank you, thank you), you should also consider following the new page for the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation.
Our team is publishing some really unique research and analysis on economic development and economic diplomacy in West Asia!
Link here:
bsky.app/profile/bour...
Our team is publishing some really unique research and analysis on economic development and economic diplomacy in West Asia!
Link here:
bsky.app/profile/bour...
Just finished reading this powerful book by my colleague @efinkel.bsky.social.
The book is a staggering study of Russian aggression towards Ukraine.
It is also a reminder that the only way to understand what is happening in the world is to make sure you have a firm grasp on history.
The book is a staggering study of Russian aggression towards Ukraine.
It is also a reminder that the only way to understand what is happening in the world is to make sure you have a firm grasp on history.
February 16, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Just finished reading this powerful book by my colleague @efinkel.bsky.social.
The book is a staggering study of Russian aggression towards Ukraine.
It is also a reminder that the only way to understand what is happening in the world is to make sure you have a firm grasp on history.
The book is a staggering study of Russian aggression towards Ukraine.
It is also a reminder that the only way to understand what is happening in the world is to make sure you have a firm grasp on history.
The scale of hydrocarbon investments is really something else.
Chevron's $50 billion investment to boost output at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is more than 4 times the *total* FDI stock in Uzbekistan.
Chevron is investing the equivalent of $2500 per Kazakh citizen.
Chevron's $50 billion investment to boost output at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is more than 4 times the *total* FDI stock in Uzbekistan.
Chevron is investing the equivalent of $2500 per Kazakh citizen.
February 9, 2025 at 11:07 AM
The scale of hydrocarbon investments is really something else.
Chevron's $50 billion investment to boost output at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is more than 4 times the *total* FDI stock in Uzbekistan.
Chevron is investing the equivalent of $2500 per Kazakh citizen.
Chevron's $50 billion investment to boost output at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is more than 4 times the *total* FDI stock in Uzbekistan.
Chevron is investing the equivalent of $2500 per Kazakh citizen.
This statement from 79 states regarding the US sanctions on the ICC is very weak.
It acknowledges that sanctions may interrupt the work of the court, instead of declaring that there will be no such interruption.
It lacks any threat of countermeasures.
So far, a failed test.
It acknowledges that sanctions may interrupt the work of the court, instead of declaring that there will be no such interruption.
It lacks any threat of countermeasures.
So far, a failed test.
February 7, 2025 at 11:11 PM
This statement from 79 states regarding the US sanctions on the ICC is very weak.
It acknowledges that sanctions may interrupt the work of the court, instead of declaring that there will be no such interruption.
It lacks any threat of countermeasures.
So far, a failed test.
It acknowledges that sanctions may interrupt the work of the court, instead of declaring that there will be no such interruption.
It lacks any threat of countermeasures.
So far, a failed test.
Trump posted this at 6:17 AM.
He must have had a very inspiring dream!
He must have had a very inspiring dream!
February 5, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Trump posted this at 6:17 AM.
He must have had a very inspiring dream!
He must have had a very inspiring dream!
Back in 2018, when Mike Pompeo announced the Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy with a list of 12 demands, one demand was for Iran to “stop enrichment.”
That demand is notably absent in the statement of policy that begins the Trump administration’s new Iran memo.
That demand is notably absent in the statement of policy that begins the Trump administration’s new Iran memo.
February 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Back in 2018, when Mike Pompeo announced the Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy with a list of 12 demands, one demand was for Iran to “stop enrichment.”
That demand is notably absent in the statement of policy that begins the Trump administration’s new Iran memo.
That demand is notably absent in the statement of policy that begins the Trump administration’s new Iran memo.
1. So Netanyahu came to Washington and what he got is a memo on Iran, not an EO with new sanctions designations.
Trump said he is "unhappy" to sign to memo, and that he hopes it "will hardly have to be used," while also stating he wants a deal with Iran.
Huge shift from 2018.
Trump said he is "unhappy" to sign to memo, and that he hopes it "will hardly have to be used," while also stating he wants a deal with Iran.
Huge shift from 2018.
February 4, 2025 at 11:19 PM
1. So Netanyahu came to Washington and what he got is a memo on Iran, not an EO with new sanctions designations.
Trump said he is "unhappy" to sign to memo, and that he hopes it "will hardly have to be used," while also stating he wants a deal with Iran.
Huge shift from 2018.
Trump said he is "unhappy" to sign to memo, and that he hopes it "will hardly have to be used," while also stating he wants a deal with Iran.
Huge shift from 2018.