The 2025 Calder Cup Finals are set to begin.
Charlotte with 57% chance of lifting the trophy. The regular season team level data model performs really well so far.
Checkers with a strong defense and Canucks with a strong offense. Who wins?
Charlotte with 57% chance of lifting the trophy. The regular season team level data model performs really well so far.
Checkers with a strong defense and Canucks with a strong offense. Who wins?
June 9, 2025 at 8:42 AM
The 2025 Calder Cup Finals are set to begin.
Charlotte with 57% chance of lifting the trophy. The regular season team level data model performs really well so far.
Checkers with a strong defense and Canucks with a strong offense. Who wins?
Charlotte with 57% chance of lifting the trophy. The regular season team level data model performs really well so far.
Checkers with a strong defense and Canucks with a strong offense. Who wins?
NHL Round last is here. Florida as a slight favourite based on the regular season team level model with data adjusted for both regular season and play-off performances. Most likely simulated outcome is Florida in 6.
June 2, 2025 at 9:50 PM
NHL Round last is here. Florida as a slight favourite based on the regular season team level model with data adjusted for both regular season and play-off performances. Most likely simulated outcome is Florida in 6.
First underdog series were won in the West in round 2. Both Texas and Abbotsord managed to win game 5s at away rinks and will meet in the conference finals. Eastern conference finals should be very close.
May 27, 2025 at 1:46 PM
First underdog series were won in the West in round 2. Both Texas and Abbotsord managed to win game 5s at away rinks and will meet in the conference finals. Eastern conference finals should be very close.
Switzerland has a super strong tournament so far and is therefore a team to beat in the finals. USA ride currently the hottest streak at the tournament at the moment and only fool would count them out. I expect a great game for the gold.
May 24, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Switzerland has a super strong tournament so far and is therefore a team to beat in the finals. USA ride currently the hottest streak at the tournament at the moment and only fool would count them out. I expect a great game for the gold.
Sweden is expected to get the Bronze tomorrow but 25% chance for Denmark does not look that bad. Sweden streak is also currently under average so who knows. Still most metrics play for the home team tomorrow.
May 24, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Sweden is expected to get the Bronze tomorrow but 25% chance for Denmark does not look that bad. Sweden streak is also currently under average so who knows. Still most metrics play for the home team tomorrow.
Interesting match up for the second semifinal. Sweden is expected to get better goaltending and USA should have a hard time yielding and scoring from power-plays. If USA can display their offense though we have a game!
May 22, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Interesting match up for the second semifinal. Sweden is expected to get better goaltending and USA should have a hard time yielding and scoring from power-plays. If USA can display their offense though we have a game!
Switzerland vs Denmark is a IIHF World Chmpionships semifinal match up!
Swiss are constantly strong at the tournament and should prove it at even strength in particular. Denmark is at home and their hot streak is at ist peak after beating Canada! Can David beat two Goliaths?
Swiss are constantly strong at the tournament and should prove it at even strength in particular. Denmark is at home and their hot streak is at ist peak after beating Canada! Can David beat two Goliaths?
May 22, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Switzerland vs Denmark is a IIHF World Chmpionships semifinal match up!
Swiss are constantly strong at the tournament and should prove it at even strength in particular. Denmark is at home and their hot streak is at ist peak after beating Canada! Can David beat two Goliaths?
Swiss are constantly strong at the tournament and should prove it at even strength in particular. Denmark is at home and their hot streak is at ist peak after beating Canada! Can David beat two Goliaths?
The closest quaterfinal on paper is Sweden vs Czechia.
Czechia has the best even strength offense at the tournament so far. Sweden is disciplined, has tremendeous penalty kill and plays at home.
Czechia has the best even strength offense at the tournament so far. Sweden is disciplined, has tremendeous penalty kill and plays at home.
May 21, 2025 at 8:50 PM
The closest quaterfinal on paper is Sweden vs Czechia.
Czechia has the best even strength offense at the tournament so far. Sweden is disciplined, has tremendeous penalty kill and plays at home.
Czechia has the best even strength offense at the tournament so far. Sweden is disciplined, has tremendeous penalty kill and plays at home.
One of two closer quaterfinals is USA vs Finland.
The game is expected to be competitive at even strength as Finland's defense backed by Saros is a big team strength.
Finland struggles come with special teams where USA should have an edge.
The game is expected to be competitive at even strength as Finland's defense backed by Saros is a big team strength.
Finland struggles come with special teams where USA should have an edge.
May 21, 2025 at 6:16 PM
One of two closer quaterfinals is USA vs Finland.
The game is expected to be competitive at even strength as Finland's defense backed by Saros is a big team strength.
Finland struggles come with special teams where USA should have an edge.
The game is expected to be competitive at even strength as Finland's defense backed by Saros is a big team strength.
Finland struggles come with special teams where USA should have an edge.
Canada is the team to beat at the IIHF World Championships (ranked 1st in the power ranking).
Quaterfinals against Denmark should be an easy task for Canada.
Quaterfinals against Denmark should be an easy task for Canada.
May 21, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Canada is the team to beat at the IIHF World Championships (ranked 1st in the power ranking).
Quaterfinals against Denmark should be an easy task for Canada.
Quaterfinals against Denmark should be an easy task for Canada.
Quaterfinals of the IIHF World Championships are set.
Austria should be no match for Switzerland. Their chance is fueled by their hot streak and a belief Kickert will outplay Genoni significantly.
Note: NHL regular season model is used to estimate win probabilities using tournament data.
Austria should be no match for Switzerland. Their chance is fueled by their hot streak and a belief Kickert will outplay Genoni significantly.
Note: NHL regular season model is used to estimate win probabilities using tournament data.
May 21, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Quaterfinals of the IIHF World Championships are set.
Austria should be no match for Switzerland. Their chance is fueled by their hot streak and a belief Kickert will outplay Genoni significantly.
Note: NHL regular season model is used to estimate win probabilities using tournament data.
Austria should be no match for Switzerland. Their chance is fueled by their hot streak and a belief Kickert will outplay Genoni significantly.
Note: NHL regular season model is used to estimate win probabilities using tournament data.
I investigated how are top 8 NHL teams (this season) built in terms of play-off readiness.
Values are differences between regular season on ice 5v5 xG/60 and play-off on ice 5v5 xG/60 (season 2013-2025).
Interestingy enough, best four teams advanced to conference Finals!
Values are differences between regular season on ice 5v5 xG/60 and play-off on ice 5v5 xG/60 (season 2013-2025).
Interestingy enough, best four teams advanced to conference Finals!
May 20, 2025 at 12:26 AM
I investigated how are top 8 NHL teams (this season) built in terms of play-off readiness.
Values are differences between regular season on ice 5v5 xG/60 and play-off on ice 5v5 xG/60 (season 2013-2025).
Interestingy enough, best four teams advanced to conference Finals!
Values are differences between regular season on ice 5v5 xG/60 and play-off on ice 5v5 xG/60 (season 2013-2025).
Interestingy enough, best four teams advanced to conference Finals!
Projections of key metrics for round 3.
If Andersen can continue his play we should have a good series in the East.
Edmonton is expected to outplay Dallas at even strength. Oettinger should be the difference maker for Dallas.
If Andersen can continue his play we should have a good series in the East.
Edmonton is expected to outplay Dallas at even strength. Oettinger should be the difference maker for Dallas.
May 19, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Projections of key metrics for round 3.
If Andersen can continue his play we should have a good series in the East.
Edmonton is expected to outplay Dallas at even strength. Oettinger should be the difference maker for Dallas.
If Andersen can continue his play we should have a good series in the East.
Edmonton is expected to outplay Dallas at even strength. Oettinger should be the difference maker for Dallas.
NHL Play-offs round 3 predictions are here.
They are based on the regular season team-level data model.
Data from
@naturalstattrick.com
The model guessed right only 1 series in round 2. It seems like going deeper into the play-offs, the regular season values do not mean much. That is okay.
They are based on the regular season team-level data model.
Data from
@naturalstattrick.com
The model guessed right only 1 series in round 2. It seems like going deeper into the play-offs, the regular season values do not mean much. That is okay.
May 19, 2025 at 2:33 AM
NHL Play-offs round 3 predictions are here.
They are based on the regular season team-level data model.
Data from
@naturalstattrick.com
The model guessed right only 1 series in round 2. It seems like going deeper into the play-offs, the regular season values do not mean much. That is okay.
They are based on the regular season team-level data model.
Data from
@naturalstattrick.com
The model guessed right only 1 series in round 2. It seems like going deeper into the play-offs, the regular season values do not mean much. That is okay.
Colorado is a strong team overall and a favourite to advance. Abbotsford can challenge their offense and plays a pretty good hockey lately so this might be closer than expected.
May 16, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Colorado is a strong team overall and a favourite to advance. Abbotsford can challenge their offense and plays a pretty good hockey lately so this might be closer than expected.
Strong defensive Checkers predicted as more likely to advance despite not having the home ice advantage. Hershey will try to beat Charlotte by their strong 5v5 offense and good discipline.
May 16, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Strong defensive Checkers predicted as more likely to advance despite not having the home ice advantage. Hershey will try to beat Charlotte by their strong 5v5 offense and good discipline.
Offense (Texas) vs Defense (Milwaukee) starts tonight.
May 15, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Offense (Texas) vs Defense (Milwaukee) starts tonight.
A coin flip series.
Two strong defensive teams against each other. Rochester might enjoy more power-play time. Laval with a home advantage.
Two strong defensive teams against each other. Rochester might enjoy more power-play time. Laval with a home advantage.
May 14, 2025 at 6:30 PM
A coin flip series.
Two strong defensive teams against each other. Rochester might enjoy more power-play time. Laval with a home advantage.
Two strong defensive teams against each other. Rochester might enjoy more power-play time. Laval with a home advantage.
Great start for hockey Horvats!
May 13, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Great start for hockey Horvats!
AHL Play-offs round 2 starts on Wednesday. Lower seeded teams in the East with a very good chance to advance. This should be harder in the West but round 1 showed that it is possible. Who's your pick to win it all?
May 12, 2025 at 7:40 PM
AHL Play-offs round 2 starts on Wednesday. Lower seeded teams in the East with a very good chance to advance. This should be harder in the West but round 1 showed that it is possible. Who's your pick to win it all?
My guy Akito Hirose stepping up for Abby. Tonight on ice for all 3 goals for plus a nice assist. Rooting for him.
May 8, 2025 at 4:43 AM
My guy Akito Hirose stepping up for Abby. Tonight on ice for all 3 goals for plus a nice assist. Rooting for him.
Round 2 NHL Play-offs performance projections for each team.
May 6, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Round 2 NHL Play-offs performance projections for each team.
NHL Play-offs round 2 predictions are here.
They are based on the regular season + round 1 of play-offs team-level data model.
Data from @naturalstattrick.com
They are based on the regular season + round 1 of play-offs team-level data model.
Data from @naturalstattrick.com
May 6, 2025 at 9:54 AM
NHL Play-offs round 2 predictions are here.
They are based on the regular season + round 1 of play-offs team-level data model.
Data from @naturalstattrick.com
They are based on the regular season + round 1 of play-offs team-level data model.
Data from @naturalstattrick.com
Colorado Eagles are the biggest favourites to advance (72%) in the AHL play-off round 1 series against the San Jose Barracuda.
May 2, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Colorado Eagles are the biggest favourites to advance (72%) in the AHL play-off round 1 series against the San Jose Barracuda.
The closest AHL series there is in the play-offs round 1. Two good teams against each other. Charlotte with a stronger defense and Providence with a better offense? Who wins? Offense or Defense?!
May 2, 2025 at 9:59 PM
The closest AHL series there is in the play-offs round 1. Two good teams against each other. Charlotte with a stronger defense and Providence with a better offense? Who wins? Offense or Defense?!