Alan Gerard
@wxmanms1.bsky.social
35 year meteorologist in warning/forecast provision and research, now CEO of Balanced Weather LLC, Disney/Peanuts fan, golfer, sports fan, TK Little. For more weather info go to https://balancedweather.substack.com/about
Storm Prediction Center discussion about the anticipated southwest drift of heavy lake effect snow band over Lake Michigan to impact Chicago metro area during the early morning hours.
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/...
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/...
November 10, 2025 at 4:22 AM
Storm Prediction Center discussion about the anticipated southwest drift of heavy lake effect snow band over Lake Michigan to impact Chicago metro area during the early morning hours.
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/...
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/...
Sunrise over Typhoon Fung-Wong as it approaches Luzon Island in the northern Philippines. It is at least a category 3 equivalent storm and should make landfall in about 12 hours or so. My earlier post about the storm: open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
November 9, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Sunrise over Typhoon Fung-Wong as it approaches Luzon Island in the northern Philippines. It is at least a category 3 equivalent storm and should make landfall in about 12 hours or so. My earlier post about the storm: open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
Typhoon #Kalmaegi has intensified to the equivalent of a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. It will be making landfall in the next several hours over central Vietnam.
November 6, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Typhoon #Kalmaegi has intensified to the equivalent of a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. It will be making landfall in the next several hours over central Vietnam.
Schulz knew 40 years ago: every day bring us closer to a country where the only thing that matters is money.
November 3, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Schulz knew 40 years ago: every day bring us closer to a country where the only thing that matters is money.
I remember when we used to be a proper country
November 2, 2025 at 6:35 PM
I remember when we used to be a proper country
What a horrifying image, still incredibly intense #Melissa approaching landfall in western Jamaica. Last recon measured 901 mb pressure earlier and satellite suggests no decrease in strength. Recently GOES lightning mapper shows a dramatic increase in lightning within the eye.
October 28, 2025 at 12:17 PM
What a horrifying image, still incredibly intense #Melissa approaching landfall in western Jamaica. Last recon measured 901 mb pressure earlier and satellite suggests no decrease in strength. Recently GOES lightning mapper shows a dramatic increase in lightning within the eye.
Y'all - this is literally insane. I am pretty sure that I have never seen automated satellite intensity estimates this high on an Atlantic hurricane. Dvorak T-numbers approaching 8.5 are almost always with west Pac supertyphoons. Graphic from UW-CIMSS.
October 28, 2025 at 1:47 AM
Y'all - this is literally insane. I am pretty sure that I have never seen automated satellite intensity estimates this high on an Atlantic hurricane. Dvorak T-numbers approaching 8.5 are almost always with west Pac supertyphoons. Graphic from UW-CIMSS.
Just in case anyone was starting to think that this latest stall in #Melissa might mean it's not going to come north, this water vapor loop shows why we remain confident that it will start coming north/northeast soon. Intense upper level trough digging across FL should "pick it up" soon.
October 28, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Just in case anyone was starting to think that this latest stall in #Melissa might mean it's not going to come north, this water vapor loop shows why we remain confident that it will start coming north/northeast soon. Intense upper level trough digging across FL should "pick it up" soon.
The most recent recon data suggests that Melissa continues to intensify. Central pressure now down to 907 mb and a dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall measured a mean wind in the lower 150m of 185 knots (213 mph). This hurricane is truly in rarefied air as far as Atlantic hurricanes.
October 27, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The most recent recon data suggests that Melissa continues to intensify. Central pressure now down to 907 mb and a dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall measured a mean wind in the lower 150m of 185 knots (213 mph). This hurricane is truly in rarefied air as far as Atlantic hurricanes.
Dropsonde into eye of #Melissa just measured a pressure of 925 mb with 16 kt of wind at splashdown, implying the hurricane’s central pressure is down to 923 mb. Very warm and dry mid levels of atmosphere also sampled. Winds also much stronger this pass. If this isn’t cat 5 it’s just a hair below.
October 27, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Dropsonde into eye of #Melissa just measured a pressure of 925 mb with 16 kt of wind at splashdown, implying the hurricane’s central pressure is down to 923 mb. Very warm and dry mid levels of atmosphere also sampled. Winds also much stronger this pass. If this isn’t cat 5 it’s just a hair below.
Maybe the slightest hint in the FL winds?
October 26, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Maybe the slightest hint in the FL winds?
Seems as if recon is finding #Melissa potentially intensifying again. Eye dropsonde measured 949 mb with 26 kt of wind at sfc, implying 946-7 mb central pressure. 115 kt SFMR winds in NW quad and 122 kt FL winds in SE quad. (Recon graphic from tropicalatlantic.com)
October 26, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Seems as if recon is finding #Melissa potentially intensifying again. Eye dropsonde measured 949 mb with 26 kt of wind at sfc, implying 946-7 mb central pressure. 115 kt SFMR winds in NW quad and 122 kt FL winds in SE quad. (Recon graphic from tropicalatlantic.com)
Jackson radar detected a tornadic debris signature with this storm in the lower Mississippi Delta at 9:36 pm CT. Appears as though a tornado went through the south side of Yazoo City. Rotation has weakened and broadened in last few minutes. #mswx
October 19, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Jackson radar detected a tornadic debris signature with this storm in the lower Mississippi Delta at 9:36 pm CT. Appears as though a tornado went through the south side of Yazoo City. Rotation has weakened and broadened in last few minutes. #mswx
Made my Saturday BalancedWx post early due to travel. Mentioned the evening high-res models showing increased tornado potential near I-20 corridor overnight. SPC's latest outlook talking about the potential for discrete supercells in that region.
balancedweather.substack.com/p/a-visit-to...
balancedweather.substack.com/p/a-visit-to...
October 18, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Made my Saturday BalancedWx post early due to travel. Mentioned the evening high-res models showing increased tornado potential near I-20 corridor overnight. SPC's latest outlook talking about the potential for discrete supercells in that region.
balancedweather.substack.com/p/a-visit-to...
balancedweather.substack.com/p/a-visit-to...
Disastrous storm surge struck western AK Sunday. All 6 NWS upper air sites in the area have chronic issues (see alt-text). In addition to no releases from 2 sites, 2 sites are releasing only 1x per day instead of 2x. 2 have intermittent issues, 1 of these (Nome) had no releases 10/9 or 10/10 (1/2)
October 14, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Disastrous storm surge struck western AK Sunday. All 6 NWS upper air sites in the area have chronic issues (see alt-text). In addition to no releases from 2 sites, 2 sites are releasing only 1x per day instead of 2x. 2 have intermittent issues, 1 of these (Nome) had no releases 10/9 or 10/10 (1/2)
This is horrible. It appears as though the tidal gage at Kipnuk has set a record (records go back to at least 2000) and the gage on the Kuskokwim River at Bethel is at the highest level it's been this century.
October 12, 2025 at 10:40 PM
This is horrible. It appears as though the tidal gage at Kipnuk has set a record (records go back to at least 2000) and the gage on the Kuskokwim River at Bethel is at the highest level it's been this century.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain continue in the area south of Phoenix with numerous flash flood warnings including a flash flood emergency for Whitlow Canyon and Queen Creek in Pinal County.
October 12, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Thunderstorms with heavy rain continue in the area south of Phoenix with numerous flash flood warnings including a flash flood emergency for Whitlow Canyon and Queen Creek in Pinal County.
Not a big deal for any land impacts any time soon - but interesting how in the last couple of runs the Google Deep Mind AI has went from most members dissipating Jerry after a few days to now most members turning it SE after it passes Bermuda and intensifying as it eventually turns NE.
October 10, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Not a big deal for any land impacts any time soon - but interesting how in the last couple of runs the Google Deep Mind AI has went from most members dissipating Jerry after a few days to now most members turning it SE after it passes Bermuda and intensifying as it eventually turns NE.
The latest forecast for the tidal gage at Lewes, DE shows a peak of 8.9' MLLW during the Sunday evening high tide cycle. This would be the 3rd highest level on record for the site. The ensemble shows a 10% probability of reaching 9.7', which would break the record of 9.26' set on 1/23/16.
October 10, 2025 at 8:07 PM
The latest forecast for the tidal gage at Lewes, DE shows a peak of 8.9' MLLW during the Sunday evening high tide cycle. This would be the 3rd highest level on record for the site. The ensemble shows a 10% probability of reaching 9.7', which would break the record of 9.26' set on 1/23/16.
The precipitable water value at Tucson tonight was a daily record, showing the extreme moisture values available for rainfall across the Southwest the next 48 hours. Moderate risk for flash flooding across a large chunk of northern and central AZ Fri/Fri night.
October 10, 2025 at 3:32 AM
The precipitable water value at Tucson tonight was a daily record, showing the extreme moisture values available for rainfall across the Southwest the next 48 hours. Moderate risk for flash flooding across a large chunk of northern and central AZ Fri/Fri night.
Interesting trend in the recently arriving 1800 UTC Google DeepMind ensemble (left) as it shows many more members with a track of Invest 94L toward the Carolinas with less than half turning the system east earlier as 1200 UTC did right). Will be interesting to see if this is a blip or a trend.
September 25, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Interesting trend in the recently arriving 1800 UTC Google DeepMind ensemble (left) as it shows many more members with a track of Invest 94L toward the Carolinas with less than half turning the system east earlier as 1200 UTC did right). Will be interesting to see if this is a blip or a trend.
So the models seem to think there may be a tropical cyclone or two in the Atlantic this coming week.
September 24, 2025 at 1:15 AM
So the models seem to think there may be a tropical cyclone or two in the Atlantic this coming week.
Storm surge in Tolo Harbour in Hong Kong has reached about the level of Typhoon Hagupit in 2008 near 3.7 m above datum so far. Per HK Observatory, in past hour, the max sustained winds recorded at Ngong Ping 146 km/hr (90 mph) with maximum gusts of 212 km/hr (132 mph). #Ragasa
September 24, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Storm surge in Tolo Harbour in Hong Kong has reached about the level of Typhoon Hagupit in 2008 near 3.7 m above datum so far. Per HK Observatory, in past hour, the max sustained winds recorded at Ngong Ping 146 km/hr (90 mph) with maximum gusts of 212 km/hr (132 mph). #Ragasa