a.s.
@wxandbiscuits.bsky.social
fire/tropical meteorologist. dogs, native plants and good food. georgia now but midwest is home. he/him/🏳️🌈. opinions my own.
Great thread below. Worth noting subsurface waters in the vicinity of 170-140° W have been warming - a likely sign of the transition to El Niño in 2026 that will eventually get us past 2024’s record global heat.
December 31, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Great thread below. Worth noting subsurface waters in the vicinity of 170-140° W have been warming - a likely sign of the transition to El Niño in 2026 that will eventually get us past 2024’s record global heat.
New large fire showing up near Mars Hill, NC, to the north of Asheville along I-26. This is among the areas hardest hit by Helene. re-ngfs.ssec.wisc.edu/s/c12Yz
December 29, 2025 at 7:57 PM
New large fire showing up near Mars Hill, NC, to the north of Asheville along I-26. This is among the areas hardest hit by Helene. re-ngfs.ssec.wisc.edu/s/c12Yz
The area under a Red Flag Warning got a little more rain than farther west and has been slower to dry out. Highest fire danger will end up closer to the foothills, where RH (below) and winds are critical and rainfall was negligible. Power outages increasing in the past hour.
December 29, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The area under a Red Flag Warning got a little more rain than farther west and has been slower to dry out. Highest fire danger will end up closer to the foothills, where RH (below) and winds are critical and rainfall was negligible. Power outages increasing in the past hour.
Red Flag Warnings out in the NC Piedmont. I expect these will expand tomorrow morning into more of western NC, SC and perhaps northeast GA. We train fire folks to beware the High Wind Warnings, as well.
December 28, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Red Flag Warnings out in the NC Piedmont. I expect these will expand tomorrow morning into more of western NC, SC and perhaps northeast GA. We train fire folks to beware the High Wind Warnings, as well.
Gusts to 50 mph last winter and spring resulted in downed powerlines causing numerous large wildfires in Helene’s footprint, so tomorrow’s weather is concerning. Models differ on rain potential but mostly show frontal precip. falling apart in the area of concern. WPC agrees.
December 28, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Gusts to 50 mph last winter and spring resulted in downed powerlines causing numerous large wildfires in Helene’s footprint, so tomorrow’s weather is concerning. Models differ on rain potential but mostly show frontal precip. falling apart in the area of concern. WPC agrees.
Wildfire potential in the southern Apps and Piedmont Monday may be dependent on rain with the early day front. Leaf litter and Helene fuels are otherwise primed after this dry & warm stretch, with downslope gusts of 40-65 mph and RH <30%. Sig fires are possible in GA and the Carolinas.
December 28, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Wildfire potential in the southern Apps and Piedmont Monday may be dependent on rain with the early day front. Leaf litter and Helene fuels are otherwise primed after this dry & warm stretch, with downslope gusts of 40-65 mph and RH <30%. Sig fires are possible in GA and the Carolinas.
This anole soaking up the sun in one of my raised beds agrees.
December 27, 2025 at 6:37 PM
This anole soaking up the sun in one of my raised beds agrees.
Lots of swelling but otherwise getting a little better every day.
December 26, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Lots of swelling but otherwise getting a little better every day.
Ruby’s recovering from TPLO knee surgery. Day one. Giving her a little break from the cone.
December 24, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Ruby’s recovering from TPLO knee surgery. Day one. Giving her a little break from the cone.
New fire showing up on Ft Carson, south of Colorado Springs. re-ngfs.ssec.wisc.edu/s/212RI
December 19, 2025 at 10:33 PM
New fire showing up on Ft Carson, south of Colorado Springs. re-ngfs.ssec.wisc.edu/s/212RI
Fire Warning and a Snow Squall Warning side by side. The fire has calmed down quickly after making a run to the east and will likely see precip soon.
December 18, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Fire Warning and a Snow Squall Warning side by side. The fire has calmed down quickly after making a run to the east and will likely see precip soon.
One of the important differences on the Front Range between December 2021 and today is the dryness that allowed for the Marshall Fire to take off. 30-day SPEI was extreme in 2021, while snow 2 weeks ago left fuels in a less receptive state. PSPS and lessons learned in 2021 likely helping out too.
December 17, 2025 at 11:22 PM
One of the important differences on the Front Range between December 2021 and today is the dryness that allowed for the Marshall Fire to take off. 30-day SPEI was extreme in 2021, while snow 2 weeks ago left fuels in a less receptive state. PSPS and lessons learned in 2021 likely helping out too.
Of all the FuckedUpShit happening this year, this one is brutal. The Mesa Lab is a magical place I’ve been fortunate enough to visit a handful of times. Spent a couple life-changing weeks there on an NCAR grant in the early 00s in an exchange with foreign students that took us on to JMA and CWB.
December 17, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Of all the FuckedUpShit happening this year, this one is brutal. The Mesa Lab is a magical place I’ve been fortunate enough to visit a handful of times. Spent a couple life-changing weeks there on an NCAR grant in the early 00s in an exchange with foreign students that took us on to JMA and CWB.
Neat to see a concentration of (mostly) prescribed fire in the footprint of Helene damage across Georgia. Light winds tonight will trap smoke and lead to poor air quality over the Southeast early tomorrow.
December 16, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Neat to see a concentration of (mostly) prescribed fire in the footprint of Helene damage across Georgia. Light winds tonight will trap smoke and lead to poor air quality over the Southeast early tomorrow.
A repeat of 2021’s historic outbreak is unlikely, but NSSL’s machine learning severe weather tool based on the 00Z GEFS shows potential for some of the same areas to see severe weather on Christmas.
December 15, 2025 at 5:37 PM
A repeat of 2021’s historic outbreak is unlikely, but NSSL’s machine learning severe weather tool based on the 00Z GEFS shows potential for some of the same areas to see severe weather on Christmas.
12/15/21 is the top analog for the week 2 outlook from CPC.
December 15, 2025 at 5:33 PM
12/15/21 is the top analog for the week 2 outlook from CPC.
Fourth winter in Atlanta and the latest the water oaks over my yard have had some green leaves on them. Today’s windy frontal passage is knocking down some deadwood covered in amber jelly fungus.
December 14, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Fourth winter in Atlanta and the latest the water oaks over my yard have had some green leaves on them. Today’s windy frontal passage is knocking down some deadwood covered in amber jelly fungus.
Baby girl was not happy when I took the other pup on a walk. Never heard her howl before. 🥺😂
December 13, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Baby girl was not happy when I took the other pup on a walk. Never heard her howl before. 🥺😂
Happy birthday to this princess.
Ruby turns 6 today. She was diagnosed with cancer this week on a consult for a ruptured CCL and will have surgery for both on the 23rd. Hopeful for a few more years since we caught it early.
Ruby turns 6 today. She was diagnosed with cancer this week on a consult for a ruptured CCL and will have surgery for both on the 23rd. Hopeful for a few more years since we caught it early.
December 13, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Happy birthday to this princess.
Ruby turns 6 today. She was diagnosed with cancer this week on a consult for a ruptured CCL and will have surgery for both on the 23rd. Hopeful for a few more years since we caught it early.
Ruby turns 6 today. She was diagnosed with cancer this week on a consult for a ruptured CCL and will have surgery for both on the 23rd. Hopeful for a few more years since we caught it early.
Shorts weather for Christmas.
December 12, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Shorts weather for Christmas.
CPC’s newly updated analog guidance has some notable periods of record warmth and high-end severe weather for the week two period. With a still very warm Gulf, this pattern could also bring outbreaks of severe weather to parts of the Gulf Coast and Mississippi Valley around the holidays.
December 12, 2025 at 5:03 PM
CPC’s newly updated analog guidance has some notable periods of record warmth and high-end severe weather for the week two period. With a still very warm Gulf, this pattern could also bring outbreaks of severe weather to parts of the Gulf Coast and Mississippi Valley around the holidays.