Just look at how Sarah McBride has been treated.

They've lost the plot, alienated a lot of people, and no one wants to be around them anymore. 2/2

And one more piece:

Most of the results from Bonica+Grumbach's recent working paper also fall around that same range (using both RDD and panel methods). So you would think there would be broad agreement around the range of estimates.
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Honestly this whole discussion is a train wreck. Everyone talking past each other, fighting straw men, using non-public models and data that can't easily be verified (except Bonica+Grumbach, good on them). Super exasperating if your goal is to actually learn something

It isn't though.

To the extent I've been able to check, the different specifications all lead to similar estimates.

It's really depressing how muddled and incorrect people have been about this
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Oh yeah and this. To the contrary, Welcome PAC just released a big report full of data, and this debate is largely data-driven.

Why do these fancy professors and former 538 analysts keep fighting straw men instead of the real thing? 3/3

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I genuinely find it hard to even connect this kind of abstract measurement with concrete policies. I guess this is supposed to be about affirmative action and DEI?

But those are both pretty unpopular overall, regardless of how Gen Z feels. 2/2

If you criticize me, that is punching left, and Democrats will lose the election 🙃

The "no enemies to the right" example also makes clear why this is such a bad idea.

Having extremists in your ranks going unopposed makes the party look extreme, as if you're friends with the fascists. Criticizing your own extremists makes you look more reasonable.

if I join the Republican party, will Elliot stop making bad posts

then don't read my posts

I'm torn between wanting to ignore this guy as an embarrassing hack, and wanting to refute the dumb arguments he makes. Ugh.

Remember when Elliot insisted Biden was favored to win in 2024? He's gotten worse since then. 4/4

Second, Republicans are already highly motivated to point this out to voters. So what exactly is the "risk" here?

Are we worried that Bluesky users will vote Republican because they read too much Yglesias?

This is not a serious analysis, it's trolling 3/

First of all, Elliot's been arguing for months that a party's ideology has negligible effects on election outcomes.

So how can it possibly be a self-own to point out Democratic policies are farther left than most voters??

Make up your goddamn mind 2/

It's bad. Morris

- wants Dems to give up the Senate and the judicial branch
- spends his days fighting straw men
- can't make logical arguments about political strategy

There's no Strength in Numbers here. It's just bad excuses for doing nothing and losing the US to MAGA. 6/6

Morris also keeps making facile points about how factors aside from ideology also influence elections.

Yeah, no shit! But the main factor Democrats *actually control* is their ideology and issue positions.

Democrats obviously can't expect to change voters' media diets 🤦 5/

By the way, here is Matt Y in that same June post discussing changing the D party brand.

Morris has repeatedly and dishonestly characterized pro-moderation advocates as if they aren't aware of problems with the D brand and nationalization of politics. 4/

Aside from making laws, the other obvious reason to care about the Senate is the judicial branch.

I'd rather not have nutty "unitary executive theory" Supreme Court rulings for the next 20 years. All Supreme Court nominations go through the Senate. And the rest of the federal judges, too. 3/

Far from shifting the goalposts, Matt Yglesias wrote a post back in *June* explaining at length why he thinks the Senate is important. Morris has never responded to my knowledge. 2/
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