Will Patterson
@willjpatterson.bsky.social
Jumping on the latest bandwagon. Expect election geekery, football geekery and sci-fi geekery. He/Him. https://linktr.ee/WillJPatterson
Lots of questions raised, but one thing is clear: For the incumbent party to have its vote squeezed at all for tactical purposes as it is no longer in contention shows how far Labour have sunk in Wales and are sinking elsewhere. A bad sign for May's elections, across GB.
10/10
10/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Lots of questions raised, but one thing is clear: For the incumbent party to have its vote squeezed at all for tactical purposes as it is no longer in contention shows how far Labour have sunk in Wales and are sinking elsewhere. A bad sign for May's elections, across GB.
10/10
10/10
Did Tories actually switch to Plaid as well? Will we see this just in the Senedd elections, or an anti-Reform backlash GB-wide? Will the faultline be communities where there have been protests against asylum seekers back Reform, while others vote for anyone else in disgust?
9/10
9/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Did Tories actually switch to Plaid as well? Will we see this just in the Senedd elections, or an anti-Reform backlash GB-wide? Will the faultline be communities where there have been protests against asylum seekers back Reform, while others vote for anyone else in disgust?
9/10
9/10
And Reform underperformed slightly. Less Tory tactical support? And why?Was this a one-off, or a Wales/Caerphilly thing? The Nathan Gill story? Did the mother of mixed-race kids lamenting that she no longer feels safe in her hometown because of Reform's rhetoric cut through?
8/10
8/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
And Reform underperformed slightly. Less Tory tactical support? And why?Was this a one-off, or a Wales/Caerphilly thing? The Nathan Gill story? Did the mother of mixed-race kids lamenting that she no longer feels safe in her hometown because of Reform's rhetoric cut through?
8/10
8/10
My Senedd projection doesn't factor in tactical voting as it's a PR system (this might backfire if Plaid argue that there can only be one FM and it's between Rhun ap Iorwerth and Reform), but compare this with the last chart: Plaid have overperformed. The youthquake at work?
7/10
7/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
My Senedd projection doesn't factor in tactical voting as it's a PR system (this might backfire if Plaid argue that there can only be one FM and it's between Rhun ap Iorwerth and Reform), but compare this with the last chart: Plaid have overperformed. The youthquake at work?
7/10
7/10
Right, just for fun, I tried applying what happened in Caerphilly to a Senedd election - it has Plaid breaking the PR system and winning a majority, with no seats whatsoever for the Tories or LibDems. Needless to say, I find it just a bit fanciful. But it proves some things.
6/10
6/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Right, just for fun, I tried applying what happened in Caerphilly to a Senedd election - it has Plaid breaking the PR system and winning a majority, with no seats whatsoever for the Tories or LibDems. Needless to say, I find it just a bit fanciful. But it proves some things.
6/10
6/10
So is this just a Plaid thing, or can parties elsewhere, e.g the Greens and/or Your Party, mobilise that anti-Reform, anti-status quo vote in England and Scotland? Or would young people across GB still vote Labour or SNP next year if they thought it would stop Reform?
5/10
5/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
So is this just a Plaid thing, or can parties elsewhere, e.g the Greens and/or Your Party, mobilise that anti-Reform, anti-status quo vote in England and Scotland? Or would young people across GB still vote Labour or SNP next year if they thought it would stop Reform?
5/10
5/10
But what seems to have happened here is that Plaid were more effective at engaging first (or second) time voters: young people casting largely an anti-Reform (but also anti-Labour, to an extent) vote. Frustration at the status quo, but expressed differently to older voters.
4/10
4/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
But what seems to have happened here is that Plaid were more effective at engaging first (or second) time voters: young people casting largely an anti-Reform (but also anti-Labour, to an extent) vote. Frustration at the status quo, but expressed differently to older voters.
4/10
4/10
The convential wisdom is that a higher turnout benefits Reform: they're tapping into the frustrations of longstanding non-voters and actually getting them to the polls (as suggested in this year's local elections in England). Maybe that happened to an extent...
3/10
3/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The convential wisdom is that a higher turnout benefits Reform: they're tapping into the frustrations of longstanding non-voters and actually getting them to the polls (as suggested in this year's local elections in England). Maybe that happened to an extent...
3/10
3/10
Tactical voting was different to what I expected, but there was also something that defeats most projection models: turnout shifts! Turnout was higher this time than in any other Senedd election in Caerphilly. And who came out this time goes against received wisdom.
2/10
2/10
October 24, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Tactical voting was different to what I expected, but there was also something that defeats most projection models: turnout shifts! Turnout was higher this time than in any other Senedd election in Caerphilly. And who came out this time goes against received wisdom.
2/10
2/10
I was thinking less than that - to get to that PC vote share I'd have assumed deposit loss levels of switching from usual Labour supporters! But it does look like they squeezed the few LD/Green voters there as well, and gained from a higher turnout of first-time voters. And that's exciting to see.
October 24, 2025 at 2:01 AM
I was thinking less than that - to get to that PC vote share I'd have assumed deposit loss levels of switching from usual Labour supporters! But it does look like they squeezed the few LD/Green voters there as well, and gained from a higher turnout of first-time voters. And that's exciting to see.