William Ellis
@willellisecon.bsky.social
Senior Economist at IPPR, focussing on the macro economy. Ex-HMT and Oxford Economics. Special interest in macro and AI/Automation. All views are my own.
The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 PM
The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy
Great to see Rachel Reeves strike a clear note on fiscal sustainability & reducing debt at #LabourConference2025. Sending the right signal ahead of the Budget is crucial — and markets look to have responded positively.
September 29, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Great to see Rachel Reeves strike a clear note on fiscal sustainability & reducing debt at #LabourConference2025. Sending the right signal ahead of the Budget is crucial — and markets look to have responded positively.
Reposted by William Ellis
Support is growing for adressing the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England.
To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy.
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...
To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy.
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...
Andrew Bailey under political attack on all fronts
Legacy of Bank of England’s quantitative easing policy is coming back to bite the Governor
www.telegraph.co.uk
September 16, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Support is growing for adressing the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England.
To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy.
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...
To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy.
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...
Very pleased to see my analysis on UK productivity growth picked up by the FT this morning. Their piece highlights the uncertainty around the OBR’s productivity forecast — and how stark the fiscal implications could be at the Budget. A few of my reflections below 👇
The ‘educated guess’ set to decide Keir Starmer’s fiscal fate
OBR judgment on productivity comes as Labour backbenchers fret about watchdog’s influence
www.ft.com
September 11, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Very pleased to see my analysis on UK productivity growth picked up by the FT this morning. Their piece highlights the uncertainty around the OBR’s productivity forecast — and how stark the fiscal implications could be at the Budget. A few of my reflections below 👇
1/Productivity really matters - strong growth allows us to produce more, collecting extra tax. Today's data still looks weak, seemingly vindicating calls for a costly OBR downgrade - but closer assessment reveals a strong argument for keeping steady.
August 14, 2025 at 10:41 AM
1/Productivity really matters - strong growth allows us to produce more, collecting extra tax. Today's data still looks weak, seemingly vindicating calls for a costly OBR downgrade - but closer assessment reveals a strong argument for keeping steady.