wfrost
@wfrost.bsky.social
Patriotic Left, but Conservative (I Guess) b/c I Like Basic Liberalism, Amateur Sinophile & Economist, Chess, Relegation in MLB, Rortystan
Deflation is so hot right now.
November 11, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Deflation is so hot right now.
It has to assume “falling wages” in order to hurt poor people. Which is true, if wages fall more than market prices then poor people would be hurt.
That’s a theoretical 2nd order impact hypothesized by trickle down economics
That’s a theoretical 2nd order impact hypothesized by trickle down economics
November 11, 2025 at 1:44 PM
It has to assume “falling wages” in order to hurt poor people. Which is true, if wages fall more than market prices then poor people would be hurt.
That’s a theoretical 2nd order impact hypothesized by trickle down economics
That’s a theoretical 2nd order impact hypothesized by trickle down economics
It is saying that moderate deflation caused by productivity gains can have positive economic benefits, also true
November 11, 2025 at 1:43 PM
It is saying that moderate deflation caused by productivity gains can have positive economic benefits, also true
It is saying that cash appreciates and assets depreciate. The only remaining question is where rich people hold their wealth, which is empirically simple to answer.
November 11, 2025 at 1:41 PM
It is saying that cash appreciates and assets depreciate. The only remaining question is where rich people hold their wealth, which is empirically simple to answer.
The only asset class that would increase in value for creditors is fixed income. Rich people hold 90% of their wealth in companies and real estate (variable returns), both of which decline in value as a multiple of market prices.
November 11, 2025 at 1:37 PM
The only asset class that would increase in value for creditors is fixed income. Rich people hold 90% of their wealth in companies and real estate (variable returns), both of which decline in value as a multiple of market prices.
If nominal wages are flat, and retail prices decline (ie deflation), then poor people now have more $ in their bank account at the end of the month, assuming they buy the same basket.
That makes them better off and less likely to need/take debt. Thats what they’re saying. I think they are right.
That makes them better off and less likely to need/take debt. Thats what they’re saying. I think they are right.
November 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
If nominal wages are flat, and retail prices decline (ie deflation), then poor people now have more $ in their bank account at the end of the month, assuming they buy the same basket.
That makes them better off and less likely to need/take debt. Thats what they’re saying. I think they are right.
That makes them better off and less likely to need/take debt. Thats what they’re saying. I think they are right.
Also why would poor people be more likely to enter debt? They have more buying power than ever before.
November 11, 2025 at 3:31 AM
Also why would poor people be more likely to enter debt? They have more buying power than ever before.
You can pretend its wrong if you’d like
November 11, 2025 at 3:29 AM
You can pretend its wrong if you’d like
Sorry, but no. Value of those assets declines more significantly because the DCF of those assets drops as a multiple of the fall in prices/profits
November 11, 2025 at 3:27 AM
Sorry, but no. Value of those assets declines more significantly because the DCF of those assets drops as a multiple of the fall in prices/profits
Instead of debating complex historical correlations, pls explain the mechanism by which leveraged asset holders benefit from deflation
Benefits are obvious to poor people. They tell us every day that they prefer productivity gains to go to lower prices vs corporate profits
Maybe they’re not idiots
Benefits are obvious to poor people. They tell us every day that they prefer productivity gains to go to lower prices vs corporate profits
Maybe they’re not idiots
November 11, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Instead of debating complex historical correlations, pls explain the mechanism by which leveraged asset holders benefit from deflation
Benefits are obvious to poor people. They tell us every day that they prefer productivity gains to go to lower prices vs corporate profits
Maybe they’re not idiots
Benefits are obvious to poor people. They tell us every day that they prefer productivity gains to go to lower prices vs corporate profits
Maybe they’re not idiots
You’ve got this backwards.
Most people with money don’t hold wealth in cash - they hold in assets. They also have debt, which gets expensive.
Poor people spend all of their money each month, so they experience the greatest real benefit from supply-side (productivity) deflation.
Most people with money don’t hold wealth in cash - they hold in assets. They also have debt, which gets expensive.
Poor people spend all of their money each month, so they experience the greatest real benefit from supply-side (productivity) deflation.
November 11, 2025 at 3:01 AM
You’ve got this backwards.
Most people with money don’t hold wealth in cash - they hold in assets. They also have debt, which gets expensive.
Poor people spend all of their money each month, so they experience the greatest real benefit from supply-side (productivity) deflation.
Most people with money don’t hold wealth in cash - they hold in assets. They also have debt, which gets expensive.
Poor people spend all of their money each month, so they experience the greatest real benefit from supply-side (productivity) deflation.
Wow. Now I’m so afraid, I completely forgot that my kid’s preschool teacher got black bagged yesterday by masked men in front of my 4yo, my health insurance premiums are going up $500 per month, and that my grocery store now sells eggs by the single.
November 11, 2025 at 2:45 AM
Wow. Now I’m so afraid, I completely forgot that my kid’s preschool teacher got black bagged yesterday by masked men in front of my 4yo, my health insurance premiums are going up $500 per month, and that my grocery store now sells eggs by the single.
Im not an industry expert but 5-6 years for compute equipment doesn’t feel crazy aggressive. I get that this equipment will be less efficient both relative and absolute, but will it be in the trash? Doubtful.
November 11, 2025 at 2:31 AM
Im not an industry expert but 5-6 years for compute equipment doesn’t feel crazy aggressive. I get that this equipment will be less efficient both relative and absolute, but will it be in the trash? Doubtful.
Because if they worked harder they might of had rich parents.
November 11, 2025 at 2:28 AM
Because if they worked harder they might of had rich parents.
Overreaction. The 50 year mortgage probably wouldn’t be that impactful on the market.
It has merits for building long-term wealth vs renting - especially if you maintain the mortgage for 20+ years.
Think of it this way: avg P&I payment 20 years ago was $1,000 a month. Sounds pretty good today!
It has merits for building long-term wealth vs renting - especially if you maintain the mortgage for 20+ years.
Think of it this way: avg P&I payment 20 years ago was $1,000 a month. Sounds pretty good today!
November 11, 2025 at 2:26 AM
Overreaction. The 50 year mortgage probably wouldn’t be that impactful on the market.
It has merits for building long-term wealth vs renting - especially if you maintain the mortgage for 20+ years.
Think of it this way: avg P&I payment 20 years ago was $1,000 a month. Sounds pretty good today!
It has merits for building long-term wealth vs renting - especially if you maintain the mortgage for 20+ years.
Think of it this way: avg P&I payment 20 years ago was $1,000 a month. Sounds pretty good today!
“Don’t come crawling back to me… dah da dah dahhh dahhhhhh”
November 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM
“Don’t come crawling back to me… dah da dah dahhh dahhhhhh”
Deflation in hard goods has been coupled with asset appreciation concentrated in the top 1%. Profits are nit flowing sufficiently to labor.
At this point, moderate broad-based deflation is a preferable outcome of higher productivity than increased corporate profits (via same or higher prices)
At this point, moderate broad-based deflation is a preferable outcome of higher productivity than increased corporate profits (via same or higher prices)
November 10, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Deflation in hard goods has been coupled with asset appreciation concentrated in the top 1%. Profits are nit flowing sufficiently to labor.
At this point, moderate broad-based deflation is a preferable outcome of higher productivity than increased corporate profits (via same or higher prices)
At this point, moderate broad-based deflation is a preferable outcome of higher productivity than increased corporate profits (via same or higher prices)
The more that wealth gets concentrated in the 1%, the less we should worry about falling asset prices.
November 10, 2025 at 7:37 PM
The more that wealth gets concentrated in the 1%, the less we should worry about falling asset prices.
Disagree, people want deflation. They want prices to fall. And they’re not wrong.
Productivity gains either cause:
a) corporate profits to increase; or
b) market prices to fall
If corporate profits flowed down to labor, then moderate inflation would be fine. But now they barely trickle. Choose (b)
Productivity gains either cause:
a) corporate profits to increase; or
b) market prices to fall
If corporate profits flowed down to labor, then moderate inflation would be fine. But now they barely trickle. Choose (b)
November 10, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Disagree, people want deflation. They want prices to fall. And they’re not wrong.
Productivity gains either cause:
a) corporate profits to increase; or
b) market prices to fall
If corporate profits flowed down to labor, then moderate inflation would be fine. But now they barely trickle. Choose (b)
Productivity gains either cause:
a) corporate profits to increase; or
b) market prices to fall
If corporate profits flowed down to labor, then moderate inflation would be fine. But now they barely trickle. Choose (b)