Payton Chung
@westnorth.com
Card-carrying urbanist since 1998; housing developer, author, museum docent, board member, single-issue #climate voter. Opine solely for myself. Ex-CHI, BOS, RDU 🚄🚋🚴♂️🌇🏗️🚰🏳️🌈
Words @ggwash.org @citybuilder.bsky.social
Words @ggwash.org @citybuilder.bsky.social
you'd think that Jim Justice would warmly welcome EVs to WV with electrons generated from hand-selected coal, but... no. only the freshest Exxon imports shall get you across those country roads
December 25, 2025 at 1:01 AM
you'd think that Jim Justice would warmly welcome EVs to WV with electrons generated from hand-selected coal, but... no. only the freshest Exxon imports shall get you across those country roads
Put a different way:
- Higher density reduces land costs per unit
- But higher density can also increase construction costs per square foot
The 2nd effect often more than offsets the 1st; land costs are not huge for high density buildings
(1st graph source: www.pew.org/en/research-...)
- Higher density reduces land costs per unit
- But higher density can also increase construction costs per square foot
The 2nd effect often more than offsets the 1st; land costs are not huge for high density buildings
(1st graph source: www.pew.org/en/research-...)
December 23, 2025 at 6:50 PM
Put a different way:
- Higher density reduces land costs per unit
- But higher density can also increase construction costs per square foot
The 2nd effect often more than offsets the 1st; land costs are not huge for high density buildings
(1st graph source: www.pew.org/en/research-...)
- Higher density reduces land costs per unit
- But higher density can also increase construction costs per square foot
The 2nd effect often more than offsets the 1st; land costs are not huge for high density buildings
(1st graph source: www.pew.org/en/research-...)
And developers elsewhere in the US do the same, just with lower heights. Suburban "garden apartments" with exterior stair cores in Jessup MD, maybe 2y old
December 14, 2025 at 2:29 PM
And developers elsewhere in the US do the same, just with lower heights. Suburban "garden apartments" with exterior stair cores in Jessup MD, maybe 2y old
There's even a diagram showing this situation.
December 4, 2025 at 4:09 PM
There's even a diagram showing this situation.
Hey DC, I heard you wanted policies to encourage new "family sized" (i.e., 3-bedroom) housing units. Arlington has a new policy where 57% of the resulting units are 3+BR; it's called ENDING SFZ.
www.arlingtonva.us/files/shared...
www.arlingtonva.us/files/shared...
November 27, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Hey DC, I heard you wanted policies to encourage new "family sized" (i.e., 3-bedroom) housing units. Arlington has a new policy where 57% of the resulting units are 3+BR; it's called ENDING SFZ.
www.arlingtonva.us/files/shared...
www.arlingtonva.us/files/shared...
Gentle reminder that ALL of the growth in single-person households since 2000 has been among seniors. Singles age 15-64 were 16.6% of US households in 2000, and 16.5% in 2020.
www.census.gov/library/stor...
www.census.gov/library/stor...
November 26, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Gentle reminder that ALL of the growth in single-person households since 2000 has been among seniors. Singles age 15-64 were 16.6% of US households in 2000, and 16.5% in 2020.
www.census.gov/library/stor...
www.census.gov/library/stor...
Literally this meme?!
November 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Literally this meme?!
DC Ofc of Planning, 2022: "appropriate transitioning or buffering from low density housing... Building height step downs, upper story step-backs, and other building form articulation and modulation should be employed"
20015's median SFH sale price: $1.4M
planning.dc.gov/ChevyChaseSm...
20015's median SFH sale price: $1.4M
planning.dc.gov/ChevyChaseSm...
November 11, 2025 at 3:52 PM
DC Ofc of Planning, 2022: "appropriate transitioning or buffering from low density housing... Building height step downs, upper story step-backs, and other building form articulation and modulation should be employed"
20015's median SFH sale price: $1.4M
planning.dc.gov/ChevyChaseSm...
20015's median SFH sale price: $1.4M
planning.dc.gov/ChevyChaseSm...
It's definitely a story of aging in place.
www.apartmentlist.com/research/the...
Going back to @ebwhamilton.bsky.social's point: large units are a distribution problem! More small units for seniors would free up more houses for families.
www.apartmentlist.com/research/the...
Going back to @ebwhamilton.bsky.social's point: large units are a distribution problem! More small units for seniors would free up more houses for families.
November 4, 2025 at 11:17 PM
It's definitely a story of aging in place.
www.apartmentlist.com/research/the...
Going back to @ebwhamilton.bsky.social's point: large units are a distribution problem! More small units for seniors would free up more houses for families.
www.apartmentlist.com/research/the...
Going back to @ebwhamilton.bsky.social's point: large units are a distribution problem! More small units for seniors would free up more houses for families.
Pertinent to single-stair: new apartments (with sprinklers, compartmentation, and two stairs) are MUCH safer than older apartments with just two stairs, or houses. The safety difference isn't the stairs.
See also www.pew.org/en/research-...
See also www.pew.org/en/research-...
September 30, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Pertinent to single-stair: new apartments (with sprinklers, compartmentation, and two stairs) are MUCH safer than older apartments with just two stairs, or houses. The safety difference isn't the stairs.
See also www.pew.org/en/research-...
See also www.pew.org/en/research-...
Attn: the voter who was telling me on his small town PA porch last fall that world leaders would respect him but definitely not her
September 27, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Attn: the voter who was telling me on his small town PA porch last fall that world leaders would respect him but definitely not her
Here's actual Data Center Alley in Ashburn VA, surrounding ex-AOL HQ.
The two hotels smack dab in the middle have 1,600+ TripAdvisor reviews between them, and *zero* mention data center noise. (Many reviews mention noise from IAD flights.)
The houses at upper left are ~$1.2M.
The two hotels smack dab in the middle have 1,600+ TripAdvisor reviews between them, and *zero* mention data center noise. (Many reviews mention noise from IAD flights.)
The houses at upper left are ~$1.2M.
September 18, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Here's actual Data Center Alley in Ashburn VA, surrounding ex-AOL HQ.
The two hotels smack dab in the middle have 1,600+ TripAdvisor reviews between them, and *zero* mention data center noise. (Many reviews mention noise from IAD flights.)
The houses at upper left are ~$1.2M.
The two hotels smack dab in the middle have 1,600+ TripAdvisor reviews between them, and *zero* mention data center noise. (Many reviews mention noise from IAD flights.)
The houses at upper left are ~$1.2M.
Of course #yimbytown2025 is the very first conference I've been to with its own house beer!
September 14, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Of course #yimbytown2025 is the very first conference I've been to with its own house beer!
Ever wondered "why is there one senior housing high-rise in this small town" (like this tower haunting low-rise, ultra-NIMBY Takoma Park), maybe it was Sec 202
hudgis-hud.opendata.arcgis.com/maps/HUD::hu...
Both zoning and lending tightened in the '80s, so more seniors don't get to live here.
hudgis-hud.opendata.arcgis.com/maps/HUD::hu...
Both zoning and lending tightened in the '80s, so more seniors don't get to live here.
September 5, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Ever wondered "why is there one senior housing high-rise in this small town" (like this tower haunting low-rise, ultra-NIMBY Takoma Park), maybe it was Sec 202
hudgis-hud.opendata.arcgis.com/maps/HUD::hu...
Both zoning and lending tightened in the '80s, so more seniors don't get to live here.
hudgis-hud.opendata.arcgis.com/maps/HUD::hu...
Both zoning and lending tightened in the '80s, so more seniors don't get to live here.
High-rises in the US became unusually costly since the 1980s, far outpacing the already high inflation for low-rise buildings and outside the US.
Just saw this graph (1965 report for NC govt) showing almost no cost premium for high-rise, which is just bonkers. No wonder so many got built!
Just saw this graph (1965 report for NC govt) showing almost no cost premium for high-rise, which is just bonkers. No wonder so many got built!
!["Comparative square foot cost -- high rise [$19 per square foot] and low rise buildings [$16 per square foot]"](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ec4gjbntroed6oairgpbvjc4/bafkreiadyqxdncxnbphbvicjd6wlxmsv5mbh6qjrizi6pelad4glrdnrhe@jpeg)
September 5, 2025 at 7:19 PM
High-rises in the US became unusually costly since the 1980s, far outpacing the already high inflation for low-rise buildings and outside the US.
Just saw this graph (1965 report for NC govt) showing almost no cost premium for high-rise, which is just bonkers. No wonder so many got built!
Just saw this graph (1965 report for NC govt) showing almost no cost premium for high-rise, which is just bonkers. No wonder so many got built!
Here's the equivalent, 1950 comp plan for DC, with an excerpt from pg. 18
centennial.ncpc.gov/item/91/
centennial.ncpc.gov/item/91/
September 4, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Here's the equivalent, 1950 comp plan for DC, with an excerpt from pg. 18
centennial.ncpc.gov/item/91/
centennial.ncpc.gov/item/91/
NHK has really outdone itself: an hour-long documentary about bullet train punctuality
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYqv...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYqv...
September 3, 2025 at 9:02 PM
NHK has really outdone itself: an hour-long documentary about bullet train punctuality
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYqv...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYqv...
The thing about abundant housing is that oversupply will happen. It's a perfectly normal part of any market cycle, and not even that peculiar to capitalism.
(Headline www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...)
(Headline www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...)
August 16, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The thing about abundant housing is that oversupply will happen. It's a perfectly normal part of any market cycle, and not even that peculiar to capitalism.
(Headline www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...)
(Headline www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...)
The average floor space of an American multifamily unit, per Census data, has not changed dramatically over almost a century: about 1,000 sq ft, +/- 15%.
Graph of Census American Housing Survey data 1999-2011; tabular data at pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Graph of Census American Housing Survey data 1999-2011; tabular data at pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
August 6, 2025 at 8:24 PM
The average floor space of an American multifamily unit, per Census data, has not changed dramatically over almost a century: about 1,000 sq ft, +/- 15%.
Graph of Census American Housing Survey data 1999-2011; tabular data at pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Graph of Census American Housing Survey data 1999-2011; tabular data at pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Dewpoint (absolute humidity) graph for DC in 2025 and historical:
1. surprisingly smooth line for June-Jul 2025
2. at icky high levels
3. there's a greater than 2/3 chance of miserable humidity here mid-Jul to mid-Aug, and Jul is overall worse than Aug
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/aut...
1. surprisingly smooth line for June-Jul 2025
2. at icky high levels
3. there's a greater than 2/3 chance of miserable humidity here mid-Jul to mid-Aug, and Jul is overall worse than Aug
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/aut...
July 23, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Dewpoint (absolute humidity) graph for DC in 2025 and historical:
1. surprisingly smooth line for June-Jul 2025
2. at icky high levels
3. there's a greater than 2/3 chance of miserable humidity here mid-Jul to mid-Aug, and Jul is overall worse than Aug
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/aut...
1. surprisingly smooth line for June-Jul 2025
2. at icky high levels
3. there's a greater than 2/3 chance of miserable humidity here mid-Jul to mid-Aug, and Jul is overall worse than Aug
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/aut...
Found a 1969 review (for the Douglas Cmsn!) that, citing early '60s FHA apts, found +50% PSF hard costs for elevator vs low-rise bldgs
babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=md...
Today, ICC says it's ~50%, T&T says ~80%
babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=md...
Today, ICC says it's ~50%, T&T says ~80%
June 27, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Found a 1969 review (for the Douglas Cmsn!) that, citing early '60s FHA apts, found +50% PSF hard costs for elevator vs low-rise bldgs
babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=md...
Today, ICC says it's ~50%, T&T says ~80%
babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=md...
Today, ICC says it's ~50%, T&T says ~80%
Started by looking for rents in Reston, whose high-rise was crazy even in Brutalism's heyday of 1965. Found some comps in 1966 WaPo classifieds for Fairfax City: 2-yr-old high-rise has 1BRs for +8% vs. new garden apts a mile west. (Reston was asking +18%, further out!)
Today, high-rise is +30-50%.
Today, high-rise is +30-50%.
June 27, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Started by looking for rents in Reston, whose high-rise was crazy even in Brutalism's heyday of 1965. Found some comps in 1966 WaPo classifieds for Fairfax City: 2-yr-old high-rise has 1BRs for +8% vs. new garden apts a mile west. (Reston was asking +18%, further out!)
Today, high-rise is +30-50%.
Today, high-rise is +30-50%.
Even a century ago, the lowest-rent apartments were operating at a loss (Hoyt, archive.org/details/oneh...) when considering capex, i.e., deferring maintenance / "eating the seed corn."
2021 RHFS has median opex + capex at $450 per unit per month, before debt & NOI
archives.hud.gov/news/2022/pr...
2021 RHFS has median opex + capex at $450 per unit per month, before debt & NOI
archives.hud.gov/news/2022/pr...
June 26, 2025 at 3:21 AM
Even a century ago, the lowest-rent apartments were operating at a loss (Hoyt, archive.org/details/oneh...) when considering capex, i.e., deferring maintenance / "eating the seed corn."
2021 RHFS has median opex + capex at $450 per unit per month, before debt & NOI
archives.hud.gov/news/2022/pr...
2021 RHFS has median opex + capex at $450 per unit per month, before debt & NOI
archives.hud.gov/news/2022/pr...
Though the better alcohol analogy is the 1970s beer market: legal but tightly regulated, producing bland swill, controlled by a cozy and politically entrenched oligopoly, and about to be completely upended.
www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch...
www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch...
June 19, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Though the better alcohol analogy is the 1970s beer market: legal but tightly regulated, producing bland swill, controlled by a cozy and politically entrenched oligopoly, and about to be completely upended.
www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch...
www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch...
Was wondering "what's going for Pride this weekend" and came across this breathtakingly meaningless vapidity advertising what I guess is just another circuit party.
June 4, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Was wondering "what's going for Pride this weekend" and came across this breathtakingly meaningless vapidity advertising what I guess is just another circuit party.