Joel Wertheimer
@wertwhile.bsky.social
Civil rights attorney. COYS.
But just if you look at the misery index to get a simple handle on the economy I actually do think it's a little surprising people are so dour on Trump, I think more surprising than Biden given how bad it got and how much they liked him the first term?
November 10, 2025 at 9:48 PM
But just if you look at the misery index to get a simple handle on the economy I actually do think it's a little surprising people are so dour on Trump, I think more surprising than Biden given how bad it got and how much they liked him the first term?
Looked at another way, again stealing from @carlosodio.bsky.social yes compared to 2024, Sherrill did way better than Harris in Hispanic precincts even accounting for margin shift, but compared to Murphy 2021, the most Hispanic precincts had the smallest shift in NJ-9.
November 7, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Looked at another way, again stealing from @carlosodio.bsky.social yes compared to 2024, Sherrill did way better than Harris in Hispanic precincts even accounting for margin shift, but compared to Murphy 2021, the most Hispanic precincts had the smallest shift in NJ-9.
In Virginia, comparing to (flawed!) exit polls, relative to the margins of each election, White voters and Black voters shifted left slightly, and Hispanic voters shifted right by 8 points.
November 7, 2025 at 3:14 PM
In Virginia, comparing to (flawed!) exit polls, relative to the margins of each election, White voters and Black voters shifted left slightly, and Hispanic voters shifted right by 8 points.
Grabbing some charts from @carlosodio.bsky.social. Comparing to Murphy 2017, who won about same as Sherrill, there was a downward trend in more Hispanic municipalities. Or by precinct in Passaic, in an election Sherrill won by 10 more than Murphy 2021, Sherrill matched Murphy among Hispanic voters.
November 7, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Grabbing some charts from @carlosodio.bsky.social. Comparing to Murphy 2017, who won about same as Sherrill, there was a downward trend in more Hispanic municipalities. Or by precinct in Passaic, in an election Sherrill won by 10 more than Murphy 2021, Sherrill matched Murphy among Hispanic voters.
Via Will Jordan on Twitter, Navigator polling showing Trump negatives being driven by East Wing
November 7, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Via Will Jordan on Twitter, Navigator polling showing Trump negatives being driven by East Wing
Fun question, in 5 years which country will have higher emissions per capita?
November 7, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Fun question, in 5 years which country will have higher emissions per capita?
Civilianization of police response should be sold to the public on grounds it understands, efficiency and cost. Hiring a 911 response contractor to handle traffic accidents made police much better at their job and also it costs less.
November 6, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Civilianization of police response should be sold to the public on grounds it understands, efficiency and cost. Hiring a 911 response contractor to handle traffic accidents made police much better at their job and also it costs less.
Live shot of Andrew, Melissa, and Rich fleeing to the Hamptons.
November 5, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Live shot of Andrew, Melissa, and Rich fleeing to the Hamptons.
Checking back, SNAP actually visible on the Kirk scale of Google Trends. Honestly the biggest policy news story I've seen since I've been looking.
November 4, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Checking back, SNAP actually visible on the Kirk scale of Google Trends. Honestly the biggest policy news story I've seen since I've been looking.
Comparing like for like early voting end of 2024 to 2025:
November 3, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Comparing like for like early voting end of 2024 to 2025:
2021 was a low turnout general election but already through early voting, 18-29 year olds have eclipsed their 2021 turnout by 30% in NYC. Their raw turnout rate is higher so far than 30-50 year olds.
November 3, 2025 at 4:23 AM
2021 was a low turnout general election but already through early voting, 18-29 year olds have eclipsed their 2021 turnout by 30% in NYC. Their raw turnout rate is higher so far than 30-50 year olds.
It's not as though American politics has been static over the past 12 years such that voters can't be convinced to switch their partisan allegiances. Over the past 12 years there have been massive swings under the hood where more than 30% of some counties have swung from one party to the other. Why?
November 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
It's not as though American politics has been static over the past 12 years such that voters can't be convinced to switch their partisan allegiances. Over the past 12 years there have been massive swings under the hood where more than 30% of some counties have swung from one party to the other. Why?
I think this passage is the crux of my disagreement with Drutman and @gelliottmorris.com on moderation: this reasoning is circular. The party labels and levels of polarization are not exogenous to choices made by both parties.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
November 2, 2025 at 4:04 PM
I think this passage is the crux of my disagreement with Drutman and @gelliottmorris.com on moderation: this reasoning is circular. The party labels and levels of polarization are not exogenous to choices made by both parties.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
Platner’s treasurer has now resigned.
November 2, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Platner’s treasurer has now resigned.
When a bunch of professionals are quitting a campaign at the same time and publicly saying this is bad, I have an instinct as to what is happening. In fact, I have experience with it. Usually it means the principal is not great to work for!
October 31, 2025 at 7:00 PM
When a bunch of professionals are quitting a campaign at the same time and publicly saying this is bad, I have an instinct as to what is happening. In fact, I have experience with it. Usually it means the principal is not great to work for!
Okay this is another Platner staffer resigning and it can't be that multiple staffers are resigning based on what we have learned so far. Clearly something else here!
October 31, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Okay this is another Platner staffer resigning and it can't be that multiple staffers are resigning based on what we have learned so far. Clearly something else here!
Same data two ways. r^2 since 1989 with the Gallup question is crime up or down in your neighborhood is .44.
October 31, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Same data two ways. r^2 since 1989 with the Gallup question is crime up or down in your neighborhood is .44.
Really appreciate @gelliottmorris.com doing this issue trust polling. Dems are +8 in generic ballot in this poll.
October 31, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Really appreciate @gelliottmorris.com doing this issue trust polling. Dems are +8 in generic ballot in this poll.
Via Zachary Donnini on X, while older than primary electorate, young voters are turning out at a much higher rate compared to 2021 than older voters so far.
October 29, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Via Zachary Donnini on X, while older than primary electorate, young voters are turning out at a much higher rate compared to 2021 than older voters so far.
I've got 10 that Biden or Harris more or less supported at some point without much effort.
October 28, 2025 at 5:55 PM
I've got 10 that Biden or Harris more or less supported at some point without much effort.
Deeply unserious and lacking in an ethic of responsibility! Thought they could run back the Dan Osborn play (same people) basically without acknowledging the different risks involved. More Platner Osborns types in R+ 10-20 places! Not here.
October 24, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Deeply unserious and lacking in an ethic of responsibility! Thought they could run back the Dan Osborn play (same people) basically without acknowledging the different risks involved. More Platner Osborns types in R+ 10-20 places! Not here.
Higher than normal but not out of control is a perfectly accurate way to describe 3% inflation. It's not sane washing.
October 24, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Higher than normal but not out of control is a perfectly accurate way to describe 3% inflation. It's not sane washing.
Scale of how big the Charlie Kirk story was still kind of shocks me but the East Wing thing really is breaking out. It's really an unbelievably good metaphor.
October 24, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Scale of how big the Charlie Kirk story was still kind of shocks me but the East Wing thing really is breaking out. It's really an unbelievably good metaphor.
Democrats are favored to win the seat in Maine on Kalshi. Also Golden is not favored to win his seat! He's not running because Democratic primary voters are behaving very stupidly and might even primary him. They should have been begging him to run for the senate.
October 24, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Democrats are favored to win the seat in Maine on Kalshi. Also Golden is not favored to win his seat! He's not running because Democratic primary voters are behaving very stupidly and might even primary him. They should have been begging him to run for the senate.
Meanwhile, red flag ballot referendum looks likely to go down. Mills opposed it, most Dems are for it. Platner who apparently loves guns hasn't said anything. Might be useful thing to help him find some crossover voters!
October 23, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Meanwhile, red flag ballot referendum looks likely to go down. Mills opposed it, most Dems are for it. Platner who apparently loves guns hasn't said anything. Might be useful thing to help him find some crossover voters!