Weekly macro
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weeklymacro2025.bsky.social
Weekly macro
@weeklymacro2025.bsky.social
Weekly macro analysis and trading signals
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tech stocks but later saw profit-taking as commercialization lagged, suggesting a potential near-term $MSFT rally followed by consolidation.
June 20, 2025 at 9:41 PM
This could be a cautious buying opportunity for gold and potentially silver as a high-beta play, amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and tensions between Iran and Israel.
June 20, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Counterintuitively this is long term bullish for carbon credits as governments tighten carbon allowance caps in emissions trading systems to align with net-zero goals, reducing supply of credits and driving prices higher, even if emissions fall $CL $BZ $KRBN
June 17, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Similar to the 1991 when Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait caused oil prices to surge 30% in weeks, ME conflicts historically amplify energy volatility and safe-haven flows. The 2019 Iranian drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities spiked Brent 14% intraday, with $GC and $JPY rallying 5-7% over a month
June 13, 2025 at 4:32 PM
great pair trade - short $BA long $AIR.PA, which has strong technical and fundamental tailwinds. The 2019 Boeing 737 MAX grounding after two fatal crashes (Lion Air 2018, Ethiopian Airlines 2019) offers a precedent: $BA stock fell ~20% over three months, while $AIR.PA gained ~15%
June 3, 2025 at 6:16 AM
This shift could weaken the KRW, raising borrowing costs for South Korean firms with USD debt, potentially impacting other EM markets.
May 26, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Overuse of azole antifungals in agriculture contributes to fungal resistance, potentially reducing crop yields for grains like wheat and corn, as fungi like Aspergillus flavus thrive. No trade recommendation, but something to keep an eye on.
May 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
(10-25%), which caused a 10% drop in Chinese equities and a 5% CNY depreciation over three months. Apple’s stock dipped ~5% initially but recovered after exemptions were secured. The 2018-2019 trade war also saw gold rally 8% as a safe haven.
May 24, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Difficult week as most of my bets went the wrong way. The strategy was down 0.9% for the week, and up 1.35% since the start
May 18, 2025 at 6:55 AM