Weekly macro
@weeklymacro2025.bsky.social
Weekly macro analysis and trading signals
Read: twitter.com/weeklymacro2025
Read: twitter.com/weeklymacro2025
As hostilities between Iran, Israel, and the US appear to have subsided, significant risks remain. The $EIS Israel ETF traded at an all-time high on the news, but if the conflict were to resurface, the downside potential is much larger than the upside.
June 25, 2025 at 6:47 AM
As hostilities between Iran, Israel, and the US appear to have subsided, significant risks remain. The $EIS Israel ETF traded at an all-time high on the news, but if the conflict were to resurface, the downside potential is much larger than the upside.
x.com/satyanadella/status/1935797232672145634 $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella announces a breakthrough in quantum computing with new 4D codes reducing error rates by 1,000x, bringing utility-scale quantum computing closer to reality. Similar to the 2019 $GOGL quantum supremacy claim, which initially boosted
x.com
June 20, 2025 at 9:41 PM
x.com/satyanadella/status/1935797232672145634 $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella announces a breakthrough in quantum computing with new 4D codes reducing error rates by 1,000x, bringing utility-scale quantum computing closer to reality. Similar to the 2019 $GOGL quantum supremacy claim, which initially boosted
$GC $GLD Gold prices are set to fall ~3% this week as USD rallies due to the Fed signaling a reduced chance of rate cuts. Mirrors Nov 2024, when gold dropped 3% after similar Fed signals. 2013 taper tantrum also saw gold decline 7% in a month as rate cut expectations diminished.
June 20, 2025 at 10:29 AM
$GC $GLD Gold prices are set to fall ~3% this week as USD rallies due to the Fed signaling a reduced chance of rate cuts. Mirrors Nov 2024, when gold dropped 3% after similar Fed signals. 2013 taper tantrum also saw gold decline 7% in a month as rate cut expectations diminished.
x.com/SpaceX/status/1935572705941880971
SpaceX Starship explosion delays tenth flight test, impacting Mars and lunar plans. In 2019 Boeing Starliner failure delayed NASA missions, causing 15% drop in aerospace ETFs over three months. $ROKT $ITA $UFO but $ARKX is the best play
SpaceX Starship explosion delays tenth flight test, impacting Mars and lunar plans. In 2019 Boeing Starliner failure delayed NASA missions, causing 15% drop in aerospace ETFs over three months. $ROKT $ITA $UFO but $ARKX is the best play
June 19, 2025 at 7:40 AM
x.com/SpaceX/status/1935572705941880971
SpaceX Starship explosion delays tenth flight test, impacting Mars and lunar plans. In 2019 Boeing Starliner failure delayed NASA missions, causing 15% drop in aerospace ETFs over three months. $ROKT $ITA $UFO but $ARKX is the best play
SpaceX Starship explosion delays tenth flight test, impacting Mars and lunar plans. In 2019 Boeing Starliner failure delayed NASA missions, causing 15% drop in aerospace ETFs over three months. $ROKT $ITA $UFO but $ARKX is the best play
ft.com/content/735386a1-eae6-4f41-b573-b2a52cf74417 IEA predicts a 1.8 Mil barrel/day increase in global oil production for 2025, outpacing demand despite ongoing ME conflict. The Oil Market Report indicates China's oil demand may peak by 2027 due to a shift to electric vehicles and high-speed rail.
Global oil supplies forecast to outstrip demand this year despite Middle East war
International Energy Agency expects production to rise by 1.8mn barrels a day in 2025
ft.com
June 17, 2025 at 6:02 PM
ft.com/content/735386a1-eae6-4f41-b573-b2a52cf74417 IEA predicts a 1.8 Mil barrel/day increase in global oil production for 2025, outpacing demand despite ongoing ME conflict. The Oil Market Report indicates China's oil demand may peak by 2027 due to a shift to electric vehicles and high-speed rail.
$CL $BZ stabilized and pulled back from the highs. Historical Context: The 2019 Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities caused a 20% spike, but prices retreated within weeks. Similarly, the 2003 Iraq War saw oil prices rise 25% pre-invasion, only to normalize w/i 2 months.
June 17, 2025 at 7:44 AM
$CL $BZ stabilized and pulled back from the highs. Historical Context: The 2019 Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities caused a 20% spike, but prices retreated within weeks. Similarly, the 2003 Iraq War saw oil prices rise 25% pre-invasion, only to normalize w/i 2 months.
FT: Russian air attack on June 9 targeted and seriously damaged Boeing’s $BA Kyiv office, where 1000+ employed in cooperation with on Antonov on aerospace projects. This attack shows that it is naive to think that Russia would be deterred by U.S. businesses in Ukraine.
June 15, 2025 at 5:13 PM
FT: Russian air attack on June 9 targeted and seriously damaged Boeing’s $BA Kyiv office, where 1000+ employed in cooperation with on Antonov on aerospace projects. This attack shows that it is naive to think that Russia would be deterred by U.S. businesses in Ukraine.
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile programs, killing IRGC commander Hossein Salami and nuclear scientists. Iran vows retaliation but claims no refinery damage. Markets react with oil surging 6% and global equities sliding.
June 13, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile programs, killing IRGC commander Hossein Salami and nuclear scientists. Iran vows retaliation but claims no refinery damage. Markets react with oil surging 6% and global equities sliding.
$BA $AIR.PA The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will hold a hearing on June 24, 2025, to investigate the cause of a 2024 mid-air emergency involving a Boeing 737 MAX 9, where an Alaska Airlines plane experienced a door plug blowout. This can be a setup for a
June 3, 2025 at 6:16 AM
$BA $AIR.PA The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will hold a hearing on June 24, 2025, to investigate the cause of a 2024 mid-air emergency involving a Boeing 737 MAX 9, where an Alaska Airlines plane experienced a door plug blowout. This can be a setup for a
Week 5 trading results, and signals for 2025-06-02: I believe that macro trends will continue and will keep part of the same positions. Here are the trades: long $URA and $FXY, short $TLT open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
Week 5 trading results, and signals for 2025-06-02
This was a difficult week, my bet on macro trend from previous continuing did not work out, and I was down on all positions.
open.substack.com
June 1, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Week 5 trading results, and signals for 2025-06-02: I believe that macro trends will continue and will keep part of the same positions. Here are the trades: long $URA and $FXY, short $TLT open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
South Korea faces a snap presidential election on June 3, 2025, after former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment following a brief martial law stint in December 2024. Leading candidate Lee Jae-myung pushes a won-backed stablecoin and less U.S. dollar reliance.
May 26, 2025 at 7:24 PM
South Korea faces a snap presidential election on June 3, 2025, after former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment following a brief martial law stint in December 2024. Leading candidate Lee Jae-myung pushes a won-backed stablecoin and less U.S. dollar reliance.
Signals for 2025-05-26: short TLT, long GLD, URA, and EFA open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
Signals for 2025-05-26
I am continuing with the trade themes started last week.
open.substack.com
May 25, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Signals for 2025-05-26: short TLT, long GLD, URA, and EFA open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
Week 4 trading (amazing!) results and risk management. open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
Week 4 trading results and risk management.
This was an amazing week — I made two bets: short USO and long URA.
open.substack.com
May 25, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Week 4 trading (amazing!) results and risk management. open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
Drug-resistant lethal fungi are spreading globally, with cases reported in hospitals across 17 US states and Europe, driven by climate change and overuse of antifungals in agriculture and medicine. www.economist.com/science-and-...
Lethal fungi are becoming drug-resistant—and spreading
New antifungals offer a glimmer of hope
www.economist.com
May 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Drug-resistant lethal fungi are spreading globally, with cases reported in hospitals across 17 US states and Europe, driven by climate change and overuse of antifungals in agriculture and medicine. www.economist.com/science-and-...
US President Donald Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Apple iPhones and other smartphones not manufactured in the US and a 50% tariff on all EU imports starting June 1, 2025, escalating trade tensions after stalled negotiations. Similar to Trump’s 2018 tariffs on Chinese goods
May 24, 2025 at 8:35 AM
US President Donald Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Apple iPhones and other smartphones not manufactured in the US and a 50% tariff on all EU imports starting June 1, 2025, escalating trade tensions after stalled negotiations. Similar to Trump’s 2018 tariffs on Chinese goods
Week 3 trading results, and signals for 2025-05-19 open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
Week 3 trading results, and signals for 2025-05-19
Difficult week as most of my bets went the wrong way.
open.substack.com
May 18, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Week 3 trading results, and signals for 2025-05-19 open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
US President Donald Trump announced the removal of all U.S. sanctions on Syria, previously imposed to pressure the Assad regime, to support the country’s economic recovery. This could bolster Turkish construction firms (e.g., ENKA Insaat) or Gulf energy firms (e.g., Saudi Aramco) expecting Syrian
May 13, 2025 at 8:21 PM
US President Donald Trump announced the removal of all U.S. sanctions on Syria, previously imposed to pressure the Assad regime, to support the country’s economic recovery. This could bolster Turkish construction firms (e.g., ENKA Insaat) or Gulf energy firms (e.g., Saudi Aramco) expecting Syrian
OPEC raised oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, easing supply constraints. Despite tariff ease we may still see lower oil prices. In November 2018 OPEC ramped output ahead of Iran sanctions. Oil prices dropped ~30% in Q4
May 13, 2025 at 6:24 AM
OPEC raised oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, easing supply constraints. Despite tariff ease we may still see lower oil prices. In November 2018 OPEC ramped output ahead of Iran sanctions. Oil prices dropped ~30% in Q4
Week 2 trading results, and signals for 2025-05-12 open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
Week 2 trading results, and signals for 2025-05-12
It was a volatile week; my short USO did not go as planned as oil rallied on positive tariffs developments and geopolitical tensions with Iran and Yemen.
open.substack.com
May 10, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Week 2 trading results, and signals for 2025-05-12 open.substack.com/pub/weeklyma...
Trump announces a US-UK trade deal reducing tariffs on UK autos, steel, and aluminum, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff on most UK goods; concurrently, the Bank of England cuts rates by 25 bps to 4.25% to cushion the UK economy amid global trade uncertainties.
May 9, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Trump announces a US-UK trade deal reducing tariffs on UK autos, steel, and aluminum, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff on most UK goods; concurrently, the Bank of England cuts rates by 25 bps to 4.25% to cushion the UK economy amid global trade uncertainties.
Saudi Arabia, leading OPEC+, shifts from output cuts to increasing oil production by nearly 1 million barrels per day between April and June 2025, despite global economic slowdown fears. The oil futures curve has formed a rare "smile" shape
May 8, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Saudi Arabia, leading OPEC+, shifts from output cuts to increasing oil production by nearly 1 million barrels per day between April and June 2025, despite global economic slowdown fears. The oil futures curve has formed a rare "smile" shape
European natural gas prices surge due to cold weather forecasts and continued Russian aggression, raising fears of supply disruptions. Higher gas prices increase energy costs for energy-intensive industries like metal production -> bearish for LME aluminum
May 7, 2025 at 1:15 PM
European natural gas prices surge due to cold weather forecasts and continued Russian aggression, raising fears of supply disruptions. Higher gas prices increase energy costs for energy-intensive industries like metal production -> bearish for LME aluminum
US President Trump signals potential tariffs on Canadian pharmaceuticals, escalating trade tensions. In 2018, US steel tariffs on Canada led to a 5% CAD drop and a 10% rally in Mexican peso pairs within two months. Trade idea: long $MXN/$CAD
May 6, 2025 at 5:52 PM
US President Trump signals potential tariffs on Canadian pharmaceuticals, escalating trade tensions. In 2018, US steel tariffs on Canada led to a 5% CAD drop and a 10% rally in Mexican peso pairs within two months. Trade idea: long $MXN/$CAD
Beijing has halted the release of numerous economic data points, including unemployment, real estate, foreign investment, and even niche metrics like soy sauce production, obscuring the true state of China’s economy. The Trump administration has disbanded expert panels like the
May 6, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Beijing has halted the release of numerous economic data points, including unemployment, real estate, foreign investment, and even niche metrics like soy sauce production, obscuring the true state of China’s economy. The Trump administration has disbanded expert panels like the
$PDD Temu, a Chinese e-commerce platform, halts direct shipments from China to the US, shifting to a local fulfillment model using US-based merchants to avoid Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports and the end of the de minimis exemption.
May 5, 2025 at 4:02 PM
$PDD Temu, a Chinese e-commerce platform, halts direct shipments from China to the US, shifting to a local fulfillment model using US-based merchants to avoid Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports and the end of the de minimis exemption.