@wdmacaskill.bsky.social
Sometimes people argue that material abundance will make people more altruistic: they’ll get all their self-interested needs met, and the only preferences left to satisfy will be altruistic.
August 8, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Sometimes people argue that material abundance will make people more altruistic: they’ll get all their self-interested needs met, and the only preferences left to satisfy will be altruistic.
Should we expect widespread moral progress in the future?
In a new paper, Convergence and Compromise, @FinMoorhouse and I discuss this.
Thread.
In a new paper, Convergence and Compromise, @FinMoorhouse and I discuss this.
Thread.
August 8, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Should we expect widespread moral progress in the future?
In a new paper, Convergence and Compromise, @FinMoorhouse and I discuss this.
Thread.
In a new paper, Convergence and Compromise, @FinMoorhouse and I discuss this.
Thread.
How easy is it to get to a future that’s pretty close to ideal?
In “No Easy Eutopia”, @finmoorhouse and I argue that it’s very hard - very unlikely to happen by default, without some beings in the future trying hard to figure out what “goodness” consists in, and actively trying to promote it.
In “No Easy Eutopia”, @finmoorhouse and I argue that it’s very hard - very unlikely to happen by default, without some beings in the future trying hard to figure out what “goodness” consists in, and actively trying to promote it.
August 6, 2025 at 11:17 AM
How easy is it to get to a future that’s pretty close to ideal?
In “No Easy Eutopia”, @finmoorhouse and I argue that it’s very hard - very unlikely to happen by default, without some beings in the future trying hard to figure out what “goodness” consists in, and actively trying to promote it.
In “No Easy Eutopia”, @finmoorhouse and I argue that it’s very hard - very unlikely to happen by default, without some beings in the future trying hard to figure out what “goodness” consists in, and actively trying to promote it.
Today I’m releasing an essay series called Better Futures.
It’s been something like eight years in the making, so I’m pretty happy it’s finally out!
It asks: when looking to the future, should we focus on surviving, or on flourishing?
It’s been something like eight years in the making, so I’m pretty happy it’s finally out!
It asks: when looking to the future, should we focus on surviving, or on flourishing?
August 4, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Today I’m releasing an essay series called Better Futures.
It’s been something like eight years in the making, so I’m pretty happy it’s finally out!
It asks: when looking to the future, should we focus on surviving, or on flourishing?
It’s been something like eight years in the making, so I’m pretty happy it’s finally out!
It asks: when looking to the future, should we focus on surviving, or on flourishing?
The claim isn't at all that a century of tech progress in a decade would make the world worse. It's that it would create distinctive challenges that we should prepare for.
We even say this, clearly!
We even say this, clearly!
March 24, 2025 at 12:10 PM
The claim isn't at all that a century of tech progress in a decade would make the world worse. It's that it would create distinctive challenges that we should prepare for.
We even say this, clearly!
We even say this, clearly!
These have big implications for power distribution: a software intelligence explosion would concentrate power (likely in the US); a full-stack one would spread it out.
March 17, 2025 at 2:54 PM
These have big implications for power distribution: a software intelligence explosion would concentrate power (likely in the US); a full-stack one would spread it out.
A crucial insight: even if a software intelligence explosion doesn't happen or fizzles quickly, there could still be AI-technology and full-stack intelligence explosions. These would start more gradually, but might become very fast.
March 17, 2025 at 2:54 PM
A crucial insight: even if a software intelligence explosion doesn't happen or fizzles quickly, there could still be AI-technology and full-stack intelligence explosions. These would start more gradually, but might become very fast.
Our analysis suggests each feedback loop could by itself lead to accelerating AI progress. And before hitting physical limits, effective compute could increase by 24 orders of magnitude or more - enabling huge improvements in AI capabilities.
March 17, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Our analysis suggests each feedback loop could by itself lead to accelerating AI progress. And before hitting physical limits, effective compute could increase by 24 orders of magnitude or more - enabling huge improvements in AI capabilities.
We identify three key feedback loops in AI development:
- Software: AI develops better algorithms + data
- Chip technology: AI designs better computer chips
- Chip production: AI and robots build more computer chips
- Software: AI develops better algorithms + data
- Chip technology: AI designs better computer chips
- Chip production: AI and robots build more computer chips
March 17, 2025 at 2:54 PM
We identify three key feedback loops in AI development:
- Software: AI develops better algorithms + data
- Chip technology: AI designs better computer chips
- Chip production: AI and robots build more computer chips
- Software: AI develops better algorithms + data
- Chip technology: AI designs better computer chips
- Chip production: AI and robots build more computer chips
How will the creation of AGI be governed?
CERN and the Manhattan project are often suggested as models for an international AGI project.
We think an under-discussed international organisation, Intelsat, provides a promising complement to these existing models. See 🧵1/
CERN and the Manhattan project are often suggested as models for an international AGI project.
We think an under-discussed international organisation, Intelsat, provides a promising complement to these existing models. See 🧵1/
March 13, 2025 at 4:32 PM
How will the creation of AGI be governed?
CERN and the Manhattan project are often suggested as models for an international AGI project.
We think an under-discussed international organisation, Intelsat, provides a promising complement to these existing models. See 🧵1/
CERN and the Manhattan project are often suggested as models for an international AGI project.
We think an under-discussed international organisation, Intelsat, provides a promising complement to these existing models. See 🧵1/