Valentin Kreilinger
@vkreilinger.bsky.social
Senior Researcher in Political Science, Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies (SIEPS). Previously at the Jacques Delors Think Tanks in Paris and Berlin. PhD from Hertie School, MSc from LSE.
In the 2nd #FitFor35 volume, edited by @gvonsydow.bsky.social, @patricia-wadensjo.bsky.social and me, eight leading experts share their views on EU enlargement and reform:
@erik-jones.bsky.social, Enlargement and Institutional Reform: How to make a credible security commitment
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@erik-jones.bsky.social, Enlargement and Institutional Reform: How to make a credible security commitment
1/4
August 20, 2025 at 2:32 PM
In the 2nd #FitFor35 volume, edited by @gvonsydow.bsky.social, @patricia-wadensjo.bsky.social and me, eight leading experts share their views on EU enlargement and reform:
@erik-jones.bsky.social, Enlargement and Institutional Reform: How to make a credible security commitment
1/4
@erik-jones.bsky.social, Enlargement and Institutional Reform: How to make a credible security commitment
1/4
It's time to look back 11 years, 6 years and 1 year #EP2014 #EP2019 #EP2024! And to think about the future of the Spitzenkandidaten procedure. My latest European Policy Analysis for @sieps.bsky.social: sieps.se/en/publicati...
May 28, 2025 at 12:57 PM
It's time to look back 11 years, 6 years and 1 year #EP2014 #EP2019 #EP2024! And to think about the future of the Spitzenkandidaten procedure. My latest European Policy Analysis for @sieps.bsky.social: sieps.se/en/publicati...
Merz & Macron (BILD, 8 May 2025, p. 2).
And my take on Germany and the EU with Chancellor Merz: sieps.se/en/publicati...
And my take on Germany and the EU with Chancellor Merz: sieps.se/en/publicati...
May 8, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Merz & Macron (BILD, 8 May 2025, p. 2).
And my take on Germany and the EU with Chancellor Merz: sieps.se/en/publicati...
And my take on Germany and the EU with Chancellor Merz: sieps.se/en/publicati...
BILD: top jobs with Chancellor #Merz
CDU:
Thorsten Frei: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Home Affairs or Minister in the Chancellery
Carsten Linnemann: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Economic Affairs and Labour
Julia Klöckner: Speaker/President of the Bundestag
Silvia Breher: Family
Katrin Prien: Education
CDU:
Thorsten Frei: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Home Affairs or Minister in the Chancellery
Carsten Linnemann: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Economic Affairs and Labour
Julia Klöckner: Speaker/President of the Bundestag
Silvia Breher: Family
Katrin Prien: Education
February 26, 2025 at 5:54 AM
BILD: top jobs with Chancellor #Merz
CDU:
Thorsten Frei: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Home Affairs or Minister in the Chancellery
Carsten Linnemann: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Economic Affairs and Labour
Julia Klöckner: Speaker/President of the Bundestag
Silvia Breher: Family
Katrin Prien: Education
CDU:
Thorsten Frei: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Home Affairs or Minister in the Chancellery
Carsten Linnemann: Chair of CDU/CSU group or Economic Affairs and Labour
Julia Klöckner: Speaker/President of the Bundestag
Silvia Breher: Family
Katrin Prien: Education
Newspaper front pages, 24 Feb 2025
(...)
WELT: CDU/CSU wins the election by a wide margin, AfD doubles, SPD historically bad
2/2
(...)
WELT: CDU/CSU wins the election by a wide margin, AfD doubles, SPD historically bad
2/2
February 24, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Newspaper front pages, 24 Feb 2025
(...)
WELT: CDU/CSU wins the election by a wide margin, AfD doubles, SPD historically bad
2/2
(...)
WELT: CDU/CSU wins the election by a wide margin, AfD doubles, SPD historically bad
2/2
Newspaper front pages, 24 Feb 2025
BILD: Merz does it
BZ: Today is 1st Merz
FAZ: Merz wants to form government by Easter
Handelsblatt: Election winner Merz
NZZ: CDU/CSU wins, SPD plummets
SZ: "The world out there isn't waiting for us"
(...)
1/2
BILD: Merz does it
BZ: Today is 1st Merz
FAZ: Merz wants to form government by Easter
Handelsblatt: Election winner Merz
NZZ: CDU/CSU wins, SPD plummets
SZ: "The world out there isn't waiting for us"
(...)
1/2
February 24, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Newspaper front pages, 24 Feb 2025
BILD: Merz does it
BZ: Today is 1st Merz
FAZ: Merz wants to form government by Easter
Handelsblatt: Election winner Merz
NZZ: CDU/CSU wins, SPD plummets
SZ: "The world out there isn't waiting for us"
(...)
1/2
BILD: Merz does it
BZ: Today is 1st Merz
FAZ: Merz wants to form government by Easter
Handelsblatt: Election winner Merz
NZZ: CDU/CSU wins, SPD plummets
SZ: "The world out there isn't waiting for us"
(...)
1/2
Data for 1949-2021 from @wahlrecht.de, official preliminary results for 2025, see below for categories/labels for the parties (by me):
February 24, 2025 at 6:51 AM
Data for 1949-2021 from @wahlrecht.de, official preliminary results for 2025, see below for categories/labels for the parties (by me):
🗳️ Germany: Left, centre, and right at the federal elections since 1949, updated with the official 2025 preliminary results
February 24, 2025 at 6:51 AM
🗳️ Germany: Left, centre, and right at the federal elections since 1949, updated with the official 2025 preliminary results
🗳️ On the preliminary German election result:
The voters have narrowed down the coalition options to just one, to the coalition previously known as the "Grand coalition", CDU/CSU and SPD
Official chart with separate values for CDU and CSU, without BSW (4.97%) which is included in "Other parties" 👇
The voters have narrowed down the coalition options to just one, to the coalition previously known as the "Grand coalition", CDU/CSU and SPD
Official chart with separate values for CDU and CSU, without BSW (4.97%) which is included in "Other parties" 👇
February 24, 2025 at 6:15 AM
🗳️ On the preliminary German election result:
The voters have narrowed down the coalition options to just one, to the coalition previously known as the "Grand coalition", CDU/CSU and SPD
Official chart with separate values for CDU and CSU, without BSW (4.97%) which is included in "Other parties" 👇
The voters have narrowed down the coalition options to just one, to the coalition previously known as the "Grand coalition", CDU/CSU and SPD
Official chart with separate values for CDU and CSU, without BSW (4.97%) which is included in "Other parties" 👇
Still not clear how many parties will be in the next Bundestag and which coalition options will have a majority, so let’s look at the German political landscape since 1949👇
February 23, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Still not clear how many parties will be in the next Bundestag and which coalition options will have a majority, so let’s look at the German political landscape since 1949👇
Ok, a new option: In this ZDF poll from 19:31 only the Kenya coalition has a majority (and the opposition would be formed by AfD, Linke and BSW).
(The German voter has always narrowed down coalition options with the election results in the past.)
(The German voter has always narrowed down coalition options with the election results in the past.)
February 23, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Ok, a new option: In this ZDF poll from 19:31 only the Kenya coalition has a majority (and the opposition would be formed by AfD, Linke and BSW).
(The German voter has always narrowed down coalition options with the election results in the past.)
(The German voter has always narrowed down coalition options with the election results in the past.)
The FT‘s Europe Express by Tony Barber has a great guide to Germany’s watershed election (on.ft.com/3Qzbom0) and even mentions a recent @sieps.bsky.social publication 😊 (sieps.se/globalassets...)
February 22, 2025 at 1:56 PM
The FT‘s Europe Express by Tony Barber has a great guide to Germany’s watershed election (on.ft.com/3Qzbom0) and even mentions a recent @sieps.bsky.social publication 😊 (sieps.se/globalassets...)
Exciting YouGov data. SPD loses voters to CDU/CSU, Greens and AfD. Not surprising, Left Party wins voters that voted SPD and Greens in 2021 (I assume some of them might have intended to vote BSW in-between). AfD wins voters from CDU/CSU and SPD. Did I miss something interesting? #btw25
February 21, 2025 at 8:22 AM
Exciting YouGov data. SPD loses voters to CDU/CSU, Greens and AfD. Not surprising, Left Party wins voters that voted SPD and Greens in 2021 (I assume some of them might have intended to vote BSW in-between). AfD wins voters from CDU/CSU and SPD. Did I miss something interesting? #btw25
‼️ The recording of our @sieps.bsky.social webinar on the upcoming German election with @almutm.bsky.social and @dittebrasso.bsky.social, moderated by @gvonsydow.bsky.social, is now available: sieps.se/en/web_19feb
February 20, 2025 at 2:05 PM
‼️ The recording of our @sieps.bsky.social webinar on the upcoming German election with @almutm.bsky.social and @dittebrasso.bsky.social, moderated by @gvonsydow.bsky.social, is now available: sieps.se/en/web_19feb
Today's Dagens Industri with an op-ed on the German election by @gvonsydow.bsky.social and me:
"The EU will need to take urgent decisions that give Europe the capacity to defend the continent, make the EU economy internationally competitive and allow the full potential of the single market...
"The EU will need to take urgent decisions that give Europe the capacity to defend the continent, make the EU economy internationally competitive and allow the full potential of the single market...
February 20, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Today's Dagens Industri with an op-ed on the German election by @gvonsydow.bsky.social and me:
"The EU will need to take urgent decisions that give Europe the capacity to defend the continent, make the EU economy internationally competitive and allow the full potential of the single market...
"The EU will need to take urgent decisions that give Europe the capacity to defend the continent, make the EU economy internationally competitive and allow the full potential of the single market...
Looking forward to our webinar “Germany’s election – what does it mean for the EU?” from 11:30 to 12:45.
More info & registration: www.sieps.se/en/seminars/...
More info & registration: www.sieps.se/en/seminars/...
February 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Looking forward to our webinar “Germany’s election – what does it mean for the EU?” from 11:30 to 12:45.
More info & registration: www.sieps.se/en/seminars/...
More info & registration: www.sieps.se/en/seminars/...
16 🇩🇪 Länder governed by motley coalitions and an EPP-dominated #EUCO (even more with Merz)
From me on 🇩🇪&🇪🇺:
1⃣ SIEPS report "Germany votes – will its EU policy change?"
sieps.se/en/publicati...
2⃣ LSE EUROPP blogpost
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
3⃣ SIEPS webinar tomorrow
sieps.se/en/seminars/...
From me on 🇩🇪&🇪🇺:
1⃣ SIEPS report "Germany votes – will its EU policy change?"
sieps.se/en/publicati...
2⃣ LSE EUROPP blogpost
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
3⃣ SIEPS webinar tomorrow
sieps.se/en/seminars/...
February 18, 2025 at 7:55 AM
16 🇩🇪 Länder governed by motley coalitions and an EPP-dominated #EUCO (even more with Merz)
From me on 🇩🇪&🇪🇺:
1⃣ SIEPS report "Germany votes – will its EU policy change?"
sieps.se/en/publicati...
2⃣ LSE EUROPP blogpost
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
3⃣ SIEPS webinar tomorrow
sieps.se/en/seminars/...
From me on 🇩🇪&🇪🇺:
1⃣ SIEPS report "Germany votes – will its EU policy change?"
sieps.se/en/publicati...
2⃣ LSE EUROPP blogpost
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...
3⃣ SIEPS webinar tomorrow
sieps.se/en/seminars/...
Scenario 4: Seven parties in the Bundestag
FDP and BSW enter the Bundestag (5% each), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition: 297
❌ Black-Green coalition: 290
✅ Kenya coalition: 386
✅ Germany coalition: 330
✅ Jamaica coalition: 323
FDP and BSW enter the Bundestag (5% each), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition: 297
❌ Black-Green coalition: 290
✅ Kenya coalition: 386
✅ Germany coalition: 330
✅ Jamaica coalition: 323
February 17, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Scenario 4: Seven parties in the Bundestag
FDP and BSW enter the Bundestag (5% each), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition: 297
❌ Black-Green coalition: 290
✅ Kenya coalition: 386
✅ Germany coalition: 330
✅ Jamaica coalition: 323
FDP and BSW enter the Bundestag (5% each), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition: 297
❌ Black-Green coalition: 290
✅ Kenya coalition: 386
✅ Germany coalition: 330
✅ Jamaica coalition: 323
Scenario 3: Six parties in the Bundestag (II)
FDP fails to pass the 5% threshold, BSW enters the Bundestag (5%), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition: 313
❌ Black-Green: coalition 306
✅ Kenya coalition: 407
FDP fails to pass the 5% threshold, BSW enters the Bundestag (5%), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition: 313
❌ Black-Green: coalition 306
✅ Kenya coalition: 407
February 17, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Scenario 3: Six parties in the Bundestag (II)
FDP fails to pass the 5% threshold, BSW enters the Bundestag (5%), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition: 313
❌ Black-Green: coalition 306
✅ Kenya coalition: 407
FDP fails to pass the 5% threshold, BSW enters the Bundestag (5%), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition: 313
❌ Black-Green: coalition 306
✅ Kenya coalition: 407
Scenario 2: Six parties in the Bundestag
BSW fails to pass the threshold, FDP enters the Bundestag (5%), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition 313
❌ Black-Green coalition 306
✅ Kenya coalition: 407
✅ Germany coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD+FDP): 348
✅ Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP): 341
BSW fails to pass the threshold, FDP enters the Bundestag (5%), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition 313
❌ Black-Green coalition 306
✅ Kenya coalition: 407
✅ Germany coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD+FDP): 348
✅ Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP): 341
February 17, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Scenario 2: Six parties in the Bundestag
BSW fails to pass the threshold, FDP enters the Bundestag (5%), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition 313
❌ Black-Green coalition 306
✅ Kenya coalition: 407
✅ Germany coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD+FDP): 348
✅ Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP): 341
BSW fails to pass the threshold, FDP enters the Bundestag (5%), Left Party passes with 6.5%
❌ Grand coalition 313
❌ Black-Green coalition 306
✅ Kenya coalition: 407
✅ Germany coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD+FDP): 348
✅ Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP): 341
Scenario 1: Five parties in the Bundestag
BSW and FDP fail to pass the 5% threshold, Left Party passes with 6.5%
✅ Grand coalition: 331
✅ Black-Green coalition: 324
✅ Kenya coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens): 432 (but parties normally seek minimum winning coalitions)
BSW and FDP fail to pass the 5% threshold, Left Party passes with 6.5%
✅ Grand coalition: 331
✅ Black-Green coalition: 324
✅ Kenya coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens): 432 (but parties normally seek minimum winning coalitions)
February 17, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Scenario 1: Five parties in the Bundestag
BSW and FDP fail to pass the 5% threshold, Left Party passes with 6.5%
✅ Grand coalition: 331
✅ Black-Green coalition: 324
✅ Kenya coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens): 432 (but parties normally seek minimum winning coalitions)
BSW and FDP fail to pass the 5% threshold, Left Party passes with 6.5%
✅ Grand coalition: 331
✅ Black-Green coalition: 324
✅ Kenya coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens): 432 (but parties normally seek minimum winning coalitions)
Four scenarios are likely/quite possible (Left Party is almost certain to pass)
Fixed number of 630 seats in the Bundestag: the majority is 316
For the scenarios with 6 and 7 parties in the Bundestag, each of the bigger parties is assumed to lose 0.5 points from the current ARD/ZDF poll average 👇
Fixed number of 630 seats in the Bundestag: the majority is 316
For the scenarios with 6 and 7 parties in the Bundestag, each of the bigger parties is assumed to lose 0.5 points from the current ARD/ZDF poll average 👇
February 17, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Four scenarios are likely/quite possible (Left Party is almost certain to pass)
Fixed number of 630 seats in the Bundestag: the majority is 316
For the scenarios with 6 and 7 parties in the Bundestag, each of the bigger parties is assumed to lose 0.5 points from the current ARD/ZDF poll average 👇
Fixed number of 630 seats in the Bundestag: the majority is 316
For the scenarios with 6 and 7 parties in the Bundestag, each of the bigger parties is assumed to lose 0.5 points from the current ARD/ZDF poll average 👇
What will make-or-break Friedrich Merz’ coalition options? The number of parties in the next Bundestag!
Which of the three small parties in the opinion polls
– Left Party 6-7%
– BSW 4-4.5%
– FDP 4%
will pass the 5% threshold?
A few scenarios to illustrate how the 630 seats could be distributed 👇
Which of the three small parties in the opinion polls
– Left Party 6-7%
– BSW 4-4.5%
– FDP 4%
will pass the 5% threshold?
A few scenarios to illustrate how the 630 seats could be distributed 👇
February 17, 2025 at 7:48 AM
What will make-or-break Friedrich Merz’ coalition options? The number of parties in the next Bundestag!
Which of the three small parties in the opinion polls
– Left Party 6-7%
– BSW 4-4.5%
– FDP 4%
will pass the 5% threshold?
A few scenarios to illustrate how the 630 seats could be distributed 👇
Which of the three small parties in the opinion polls
– Left Party 6-7%
– BSW 4-4.5%
– FDP 4%
will pass the 5% threshold?
A few scenarios to illustrate how the 630 seats could be distributed 👇
Data from @wahlrecht.de, see below for categories/labels for the parties (by me) and a current 2025 poll average:
February 13, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Data from @wahlrecht.de, see below for categories/labels for the parties (by me) and a current 2025 poll average:
Germany: Left, centre, and right at the federal elections since 1949 (including 2025 polls).
More on the election and German EU policy in my latest SIEPS publication: sieps.se/globalassets...
More on the election and German EU policy in my latest SIEPS publication: sieps.se/globalassets...
February 13, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Germany: Left, centre, and right at the federal elections since 1949 (including 2025 polls).
More on the election and German EU policy in my latest SIEPS publication: sieps.se/globalassets...
More on the election and German EU policy in my latest SIEPS publication: sieps.se/globalassets...