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visualizingeconomics.com
VisualEcon
@visualizingeconomics.com
1.6K followers 1.6K following 22 posts
Making beautiful data visualizations about the economy since 2004, lurking on the internet since 1990.
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visualizingeconomics.com
#bloomscrolling
Rose bushes orange/red roses in front pink roses behind them
June 2, 2025 at 5:10 PM
visualizingeconomics.com
#bloomscrolling 🌱
A circle of violet and orange flowers around the base of a tree
March 30, 2025 at 7:05 PM
visualizingeconomics.com
Revisiting the same data, I take the inflation-adjusted 1 year returns on stocks, 10-bonds, t-bills and compare it to buying and holding for 5 years, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 years during 1928-2012 using rolling time periods (e.g. rolling 5-year returns: 1928-1933, 1929-1934, 1930-1935 etc…)
A graph of real (inflation adjusted) average annual compound returns for rolling time periods for different time periods: 5 years, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 years. This shows how buy and holding stocks over the long-term did better than bonds and t-bills even though stock returns are more volatile in the short-term. I also included the average annual compound real return for 1928-2012. For stocks 6.0% 10-year bonds 2.0% and 3-month bills 0.5% Some of the outliers in these returns are due to bubbles. For example stocks in the late 1920s, mid-1930s and late-1990s had unusual large real returns with a corresponding drop.
February 2, 2025 at 8:20 PM
visualizingeconomics.com
This is a question I am trying to answer for myself. Not a financial advisor just someone who has worked in finance. This is a graph I made in 2013 showing the volatility of annual returns between 1929-2012 for US stocks US Treasury 10-year bonds and US Treasury 3-month bills. Each Circle = One Year
A graph comparing the returns for each year between1929-2012 for US stocks (S&P 500 Index), US Treasury 10-year bonds and US Treasury 3-month t-bills. It includes both nominal returns (not adjusted for inflation) and real returns which show how much you make after taking the effect of inflation into account.  Stocks are of course the most risky of the three with both the highest and the lowest annual returns then comes 10-year bonds and finally t-bills with the smallest but the most consistant returns. However, after 3-month t-bills are adjusted for inflation there are many years you will "lose" money. Finally in years with deflation (prices are going down instead of up), your real return will be larger than the nominal return (i.e. you did better holding stocks in 1933 when you take into account the effects of deflation in that year while 1954 had the highest nominal stock return).
February 2, 2025 at 7:39 PM
visualizingeconomics.com
I am apparently a Bluesky elder
September 17, 2024 at 2:02 AM
visualizingeconomics.com
If you see this, post a photo you took at sunset:
View of warehouse rooftops with the moon above and in the distance the Statue of liberty at dusk
June 17, 2024 at 2:18 AM