Vic
@vicbarcu.bsky.social
Simracing-aviation-pizza-foodie freak in my free time.
Interested in OSINT and defense news.
Physicist and science nerd.
Interested in OSINT and defense news.
Physicist and science nerd.
Reposted by Vic
Our research, based on tens of thousands of personal records, shows that desertion rates in the Russian army have doubled in 2025 compared with 2024. If the trend continues, we estimate at least 70,000 deserters this year - roughly 10% of the entire force deployed in Ukraine:
September 27, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Our research, based on tens of thousands of personal records, shows that desertion rates in the Russian army have doubled in 2025 compared with 2024. If the trend continues, we estimate at least 70,000 deserters this year - roughly 10% of the entire force deployed in Ukraine:
Reposted by Vic
Frontelligence Insight estimates that by the end of June 2025, Russian combat fatalities may have reached, or even surpassed, 250,000. The projection is based on a synthetic estimation model that extrapolates from regionally confirmed, by-name casualty records.
🧵Thread:
🧵Thread:
July 25, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Frontelligence Insight estimates that by the end of June 2025, Russian combat fatalities may have reached, or even surpassed, 250,000. The projection is based on a synthetic estimation model that extrapolates from regionally confirmed, by-name casualty records.
🧵Thread:
🧵Thread:
Reposted by Vic
Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.
Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.
June 7, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.
Reposted by Vic
History proves weapons alone don’t make revolutions — systems do. warontherocks.com/20...
Military Revolutions from the Spanish Tercio to First-Person View Drones - War on the Rocks
By some estimates, 60 to 70 percent of casualties in Ukraine now come from drones — cheap, disposable first-person view drones piloted from miles away.
warontherocks.com
May 16, 2025 at 6:00 PM
History proves weapons alone don’t make revolutions — systems do. warontherocks.com/20...
Reposted by Vic
In recent days Moscow and Pyongyang finally confirmed that North Korea had sent troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine (in Russia’s Kursk region). Time to recall what Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko told me last October when I raised the issue.
Alexander Lukashenko on North Korean troops - October 2024
YouTube video by Steve Rosenberg
youtu.be
April 30, 2025 at 4:56 AM
In recent days Moscow and Pyongyang finally confirmed that North Korea had sent troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine (in Russia’s Kursk region). Time to recall what Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko told me last October when I raised the issue.
Reposted by Vic
Kursk Offensive – A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight
With ongoing discussions about the operation’s success, we aimed to provide a detailed overview. Our report examines the key questions surrounding it. Please like and share!
frontelligence.substack.com/p/kursk-offe...
With ongoing discussions about the operation’s success, we aimed to provide a detailed overview. Our report examines the key questions surrounding it. Please like and share!
frontelligence.substack.com/p/kursk-offe...
Kursk Offensive - A Preliminary Assessment
Operational Assessment: Successes, Setbacks, and Battlefield Attrition
frontelligence.substack.com
March 20, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Kursk Offensive – A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight
With ongoing discussions about the operation’s success, we aimed to provide a detailed overview. Our report examines the key questions surrounding it. Please like and share!
frontelligence.substack.com/p/kursk-offe...
With ongoing discussions about the operation’s success, we aimed to provide a detailed overview. Our report examines the key questions surrounding it. Please like and share!
frontelligence.substack.com/p/kursk-offe...
Reposted by Vic
The figures who represented the Trump administration in secret talks with Zelensky’s domestic political opponents included former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and two of the U.S. president’s relatives, according to Politico.
Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr. took part in secret talks with Zelensky’s political opponents over possible early elections in Ukraine — Politico — Meduza
The figures who represented the Trump administration in secret talks with political opponents of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky included former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and two of the…
meduza.io
March 19, 2025 at 2:11 PM
The figures who represented the Trump administration in secret talks with Zelensky’s domestic political opponents included former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and two of the U.S. president’s relatives, according to Politico.
Reposted by Vic
🧵 My personal thoughts as a soldier who took part in Kursk operation for four months.
I want to tell you more about Russian manoeuvres and assaults at the Western flank.
Help us with batteries (membership is highly appreciated)
secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg...
I want to tell you more about Russian manoeuvres and assaults at the Western flank.
Help us with batteries (membership is highly appreciated)
secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg...
March 12, 2025 at 5:46 PM
🧵 My personal thoughts as a soldier who took part in Kursk operation for four months.
I want to tell you more about Russian manoeuvres and assaults at the Western flank.
Help us with batteries (membership is highly appreciated)
secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg...
I want to tell you more about Russian manoeuvres and assaults at the Western flank.
Help us with batteries (membership is highly appreciated)
secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg...
Reposted by Vic
I started today’s “Putinization of America” article for the Atlantic before the Trump-Zelensky meeting was announced, but I have a bad track record when it comes to hoping I’m wrong. It could’ve been scripted by Putin, especially Vance’s attacks. Maybe it was. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
The Putinization of America
Trump’s deference to the Russian dictator has become full-blown imitation.
www.theatlantic.com
February 28, 2025 at 7:26 PM
I started today’s “Putinization of America” article for the Atlantic before the Trump-Zelensky meeting was announced, but I have a bad track record when it comes to hoping I’m wrong. It could’ve been scripted by Putin, especially Vance’s attacks. Maybe it was. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Reposted by Vic
New WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the war. We take a step back to focus on strategic issues, decision making in Washington and Kyiv, and options for incoming Trump admin. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2024/12/wait...
Waiting for a Theory of Victory in Ukraine - War on the Rocks
Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine's mobilization reluctance to the Biden
warontherocks.com
December 5, 2024 at 2:15 PM
New WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the war. We take a step back to focus on strategic issues, decision making in Washington and Kyiv, and options for incoming Trump admin. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2024/12/wait...