VanguardMcBlackrock
@vanguardmcblack.bsky.social
Global trader. Swing and Intraday. Bonds, US equities, futures.
Bluesky = Web 1.0
Learning how to be nice again after too many years in the fintwit jungle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swYdKF1MpWg
Bluesky = Web 1.0
Learning how to be nice again after too many years in the fintwit jungle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swYdKF1MpWg
Continued from before: *now* this is what we're looking for re: #QQQ
We usually "plateau" it up here for a few trading days before letting it drop.
No reason to short highs--ever. Markets are slow and obvious when they top. Interested in next Tues/Weds (important: post-mopex) for potential shorts.
We usually "plateau" it up here for a few trading days before letting it drop.
No reason to short highs--ever. Markets are slow and obvious when they top. Interested in next Tues/Weds (important: post-mopex) for potential shorts.
July 17, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Continued from before: *now* this is what we're looking for re: #QQQ
We usually "plateau" it up here for a few trading days before letting it drop.
No reason to short highs--ever. Markets are slow and obvious when they top. Interested in next Tues/Weds (important: post-mopex) for potential shorts.
We usually "plateau" it up here for a few trading days before letting it drop.
No reason to short highs--ever. Markets are slow and obvious when they top. Interested in next Tues/Weds (important: post-mopex) for potential shorts.
This is what distribution legs look like for major indices--these "three little claws"
This is how large institutions exit their positions--in this case selling the nasdaq via #QQQ
It does not mean a top--it precedes a top. We oft drive it higher once after we do this
July 22-24 to be interesting
This is how large institutions exit their positions--in this case selling the nasdaq via #QQQ
It does not mean a top--it precedes a top. We oft drive it higher once after we do this
July 22-24 to be interesting
July 11, 2025 at 2:55 PM
This is what distribution legs look like for major indices--these "three little claws"
This is how large institutions exit their positions--in this case selling the nasdaq via #QQQ
It does not mean a top--it precedes a top. We oft drive it higher once after we do this
July 22-24 to be interesting
This is how large institutions exit their positions--in this case selling the nasdaq via #QQQ
It does not mean a top--it precedes a top. We oft drive it higher once after we do this
July 22-24 to be interesting
Imagine the rest of the world, if you will, as more... "a dollar thang." You may un-imagine it later.
VEU and DXY (DXY pretty in pink)
It's a weekly from 2014. Rarely do inverse correlates exhibit this level of clarity
$VGK, $EEM the same--not $FXI & $KWEB
Freeby: DXY down w/UNG+USO next 1-2mos.
VEU and DXY (DXY pretty in pink)
It's a weekly from 2014. Rarely do inverse correlates exhibit this level of clarity
$VGK, $EEM the same--not $FXI & $KWEB
Freeby: DXY down w/UNG+USO next 1-2mos.
July 5, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Imagine the rest of the world, if you will, as more... "a dollar thang." You may un-imagine it later.
VEU and DXY (DXY pretty in pink)
It's a weekly from 2014. Rarely do inverse correlates exhibit this level of clarity
$VGK, $EEM the same--not $FXI & $KWEB
Freeby: DXY down w/UNG+USO next 1-2mos.
VEU and DXY (DXY pretty in pink)
It's a weekly from 2014. Rarely do inverse correlates exhibit this level of clarity
$VGK, $EEM the same--not $FXI & $KWEB
Freeby: DXY down w/UNG+USO next 1-2mos.
Hit max daily loss today. Got too aggressive too early (a problem of mine: a personal one ; )
Cost me about $40k in later opportunities plus the $26k
But if you can't trust yourself to hit-out when you hit your max daily loss, you're not exactly a trader, are you? Tomorrow a new day
continued...
Cost me about $40k in later opportunities plus the $26k
But if you can't trust yourself to hit-out when you hit your max daily loss, you're not exactly a trader, are you? Tomorrow a new day
continued...
May 12, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Hit max daily loss today. Got too aggressive too early (a problem of mine: a personal one ; )
Cost me about $40k in later opportunities plus the $26k
But if you can't trust yourself to hit-out when you hit your max daily loss, you're not exactly a trader, are you? Tomorrow a new day
continued...
Cost me about $40k in later opportunities plus the $26k
But if you can't trust yourself to hit-out when you hit your max daily loss, you're not exactly a trader, are you? Tomorrow a new day
continued...
Ok. It shapes-up like this:
DeGraaf on Guitar; Neil lead vocals. Pav on Drums. (Pav backup vocals/harmony with the whole Catholic choir boy thing; singing drummers ftw).
Harry Chen? He does whatever the **** he wants. #King
"The (West) Village People"
DeGraaf on Guitar; Neil lead vocals. Pav on Drums. (Pav backup vocals/harmony with the whole Catholic choir boy thing; singing drummers ftw).
Harry Chen? He does whatever the **** he wants. #King
"The (West) Village People"
May 12, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Ok. It shapes-up like this:
DeGraaf on Guitar; Neil lead vocals. Pav on Drums. (Pav backup vocals/harmony with the whole Catholic choir boy thing; singing drummers ftw).
Harry Chen? He does whatever the **** he wants. #King
"The (West) Village People"
DeGraaf on Guitar; Neil lead vocals. Pav on Drums. (Pav backup vocals/harmony with the whole Catholic choir boy thing; singing drummers ftw).
Harry Chen? He does whatever the **** he wants. #King
"The (West) Village People"
A good Friday (albeit a bit late).
And a strong week. Almost hit my max loss ($25k intraday).
Scalped it out: S&P-style.
Linda Rashke (my fave) once said that being able to work one's self out of a hole was one of the most important aspects of those who trade seriously. Starting to get that.
And a strong week. Almost hit my max loss ($25k intraday).
Scalped it out: S&P-style.
Linda Rashke (my fave) once said that being able to work one's self out of a hole was one of the most important aspects of those who trade seriously. Starting to get that.
May 9, 2025 at 8:10 PM
A good Friday (albeit a bit late).
And a strong week. Almost hit my max loss ($25k intraday).
Scalped it out: S&P-style.
Linda Rashke (my fave) once said that being able to work one's self out of a hole was one of the most important aspects of those who trade seriously. Starting to get that.
And a strong week. Almost hit my max loss ($25k intraday).
Scalped it out: S&P-style.
Linda Rashke (my fave) once said that being able to work one's self out of a hole was one of the most important aspects of those who trade seriously. Starting to get that.
Thankful today. Started it off down $20k+ having to dump UNH calls near the open.
Thankfully, I trade the most difficult instument in the world: the S&P.
And I do it with consistent profitability. Sorry about the East Coast 0dte pods I blow-up. Every month. Rinse/repeat.
Best of luck to you kids.
Thankfully, I trade the most difficult instument in the world: the S&P.
And I do it with consistent profitability. Sorry about the East Coast 0dte pods I blow-up. Every month. Rinse/repeat.
Best of luck to you kids.
May 8, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Thankful today. Started it off down $20k+ having to dump UNH calls near the open.
Thankfully, I trade the most difficult instument in the world: the S&P.
And I do it with consistent profitability. Sorry about the East Coast 0dte pods I blow-up. Every month. Rinse/repeat.
Best of luck to you kids.
Thankfully, I trade the most difficult instument in the world: the S&P.
And I do it with consistent profitability. Sorry about the East Coast 0dte pods I blow-up. Every month. Rinse/repeat.
Best of luck to you kids.
Flawless day. Took more focus and energy than running a 10k. Exhuasted right now.
If you listened to Powell instead of trading the market in front of you, well, you're a reporter: or someone who lacks seriousness as to markets.
Long+short: AAPL
Long+short: S&P
Swing: UNH
#Intraday #NoMistakes
If you listened to Powell instead of trading the market in front of you, well, you're a reporter: or someone who lacks seriousness as to markets.
Long+short: AAPL
Long+short: S&P
Swing: UNH
#Intraday #NoMistakes
May 7, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Flawless day. Took more focus and energy than running a 10k. Exhuasted right now.
If you listened to Powell instead of trading the market in front of you, well, you're a reporter: or someone who lacks seriousness as to markets.
Long+short: AAPL
Long+short: S&P
Swing: UNH
#Intraday #NoMistakes
If you listened to Powell instead of trading the market in front of you, well, you're a reporter: or someone who lacks seriousness as to markets.
Long+short: AAPL
Long+short: S&P
Swing: UNH
#Intraday #NoMistakes
$ITA, sir: the defense etf. What a breakout looks like on any time-frame.
Personally prefer getting (more) long LMT than playing defense beta with BA. But pick your pony (or war-horse). RTX quite the stallion the past few days as well, but need it to make highs. Anyway, $ITA aerospace/defense etf:
Personally prefer getting (more) long LMT than playing defense beta with BA. But pick your pony (or war-horse). RTX quite the stallion the past few days as well, but need it to make highs. Anyway, $ITA aerospace/defense etf:
January 24, 2025 at 4:50 PM
$ITA, sir: the defense etf. What a breakout looks like on any time-frame.
Personally prefer getting (more) long LMT than playing defense beta with BA. But pick your pony (or war-horse). RTX quite the stallion the past few days as well, but need it to make highs. Anyway, $ITA aerospace/defense etf:
Personally prefer getting (more) long LMT than playing defense beta with BA. But pick your pony (or war-horse). RTX quite the stallion the past few days as well, but need it to make highs. Anyway, $ITA aerospace/defense etf:
DXY breakdown. Tepper having a good one.
$FXI, the Chinese SPY? She flies when the dollar dies. This is what inverse correlation looks like.
Chart from December 1st to today.
DXY, the dollar, is on top. Hope it stays that way.
$FXI, the Chinese SPY? She flies when the dollar dies. This is what inverse correlation looks like.
Chart from December 1st to today.
DXY, the dollar, is on top. Hope it stays that way.
January 24, 2025 at 4:35 PM
DXY breakdown. Tepper having a good one.
$FXI, the Chinese SPY? She flies when the dollar dies. This is what inverse correlation looks like.
Chart from December 1st to today.
DXY, the dollar, is on top. Hope it stays that way.
$FXI, the Chinese SPY? She flies when the dollar dies. This is what inverse correlation looks like.
Chart from December 1st to today.
DXY, the dollar, is on top. Hope it stays that way.
CITI at 2% of the XLF; Visa at 8% of the XLF.
XLF/financials only running into lower highs thus far; turning
For me this is what the end of intra-sectoral pushes looks like--as opposed to beginnings
XLF had a wonderful attempt at highs after failing since Thanksgiving. Am sniffing short XLF/rates
XLF/financials only running into lower highs thus far; turning
For me this is what the end of intra-sectoral pushes looks like--as opposed to beginnings
XLF had a wonderful attempt at highs after failing since Thanksgiving. Am sniffing short XLF/rates
January 23, 2025 at 1:00 AM
CITI at 2% of the XLF; Visa at 8% of the XLF.
XLF/financials only running into lower highs thus far; turning
For me this is what the end of intra-sectoral pushes looks like--as opposed to beginnings
XLF had a wonderful attempt at highs after failing since Thanksgiving. Am sniffing short XLF/rates
XLF/financials only running into lower highs thus far; turning
For me this is what the end of intra-sectoral pushes looks like--as opposed to beginnings
XLF had a wonderful attempt at highs after failing since Thanksgiving. Am sniffing short XLF/rates
Russel's game of late seems that of inverse correlate to TNX (more aptly, to the yields that dictate the health of the significant security issuances that weigh heavy around the neck of Russel D. Muscle's constituents).
Interested in getting long intraday and swing if we drop/hold under 4.6%
Interested in getting long intraday and swing if we drop/hold under 4.6%
January 22, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Russel's game of late seems that of inverse correlate to TNX (more aptly, to the yields that dictate the health of the significant security issuances that weigh heavy around the neck of Russel D. Muscle's constituents).
Interested in getting long intraday and swing if we drop/hold under 4.6%
Interested in getting long intraday and swing if we drop/hold under 4.6%
Tail wagging dog of "stocks b/c bonds" irksome. If b/c bonds, liquidity saps SPX performance. "b/c rates"
Here you go, Bob. "The game of X:" SPX/TNX
It's tricky as you've to adjust some moves in your head for big SPX days/re-traces
But they're inv. correlates (65m chart; 1/10th of day)
Here you go, Bob. "The game of X:" SPX/TNX
It's tricky as you've to adjust some moves in your head for big SPX days/re-traces
But they're inv. correlates (65m chart; 1/10th of day)
January 22, 2025 at 5:18 AM
Tail wagging dog of "stocks b/c bonds" irksome. If b/c bonds, liquidity saps SPX performance. "b/c rates"
Here you go, Bob. "The game of X:" SPX/TNX
It's tricky as you've to adjust some moves in your head for big SPX days/re-traces
But they're inv. correlates (65m chart; 1/10th of day)
Here you go, Bob. "The game of X:" SPX/TNX
It's tricky as you've to adjust some moves in your head for big SPX days/re-traces
But they're inv. correlates (65m chart; 1/10th of day)
I remain short AAPL w/ a small outright short
The premium sold around $2400-$2500 per call in December is being bought back for less than half of that: for an endlessly liquid +50% in a month or so.
When we run back towards $232.5, am looking to long puts with size.
o7, AAPL.
Been my pleasure.
The premium sold around $2400-$2500 per call in December is being bought back for less than half of that: for an endlessly liquid +50% in a month or so.
When we run back towards $232.5, am looking to long puts with size.
o7, AAPL.
Been my pleasure.
January 22, 2025 at 4:52 AM
I remain short AAPL w/ a small outright short
The premium sold around $2400-$2500 per call in December is being bought back for less than half of that: for an endlessly liquid +50% in a month or so.
When we run back towards $232.5, am looking to long puts with size.
o7, AAPL.
Been my pleasure.
The premium sold around $2400-$2500 per call in December is being bought back for less than half of that: for an endlessly liquid +50% in a month or so.
When we run back towards $232.5, am looking to long puts with size.
o7, AAPL.
Been my pleasure.
Stunning.
Fave things about many impressionist works is squinting at them and letting one's vision blur ever-so-slightly... and observe as they absolutely come to life in your mind.
Made its way through to abstraction as well. Blur your vision with Mondiran's sunlight reflecting off the ocean...
Fave things about many impressionist works is squinting at them and letting one's vision blur ever-so-slightly... and observe as they absolutely come to life in your mind.
Made its way through to abstraction as well. Blur your vision with Mondiran's sunlight reflecting off the ocean...
January 22, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Stunning.
Fave things about many impressionist works is squinting at them and letting one's vision blur ever-so-slightly... and observe as they absolutely come to life in your mind.
Made its way through to abstraction as well. Blur your vision with Mondiran's sunlight reflecting off the ocean...
Fave things about many impressionist works is squinting at them and letting one's vision blur ever-so-slightly... and observe as they absolutely come to life in your mind.
Made its way through to abstraction as well. Blur your vision with Mondiran's sunlight reflecting off the ocean...
$IJR is on top.
Had $TLT (bottom chart) up from your AAPL post. Notice anything?
IJR=IWM; stronger. But IJR/IWM=TLT
Rates turning-over (thus TLT bounce)
The IWM/IJR vs TLT correlation imho represents what saves IWM: rates turning over rescues small caps that issued (securities) en masse in '20
Had $TLT (bottom chart) up from your AAPL post. Notice anything?
IJR=IWM; stronger. But IJR/IWM=TLT
Rates turning-over (thus TLT bounce)
The IWM/IJR vs TLT correlation imho represents what saves IWM: rates turning over rescues small caps that issued (securities) en masse in '20
January 21, 2025 at 7:41 PM
$IJR is on top.
Had $TLT (bottom chart) up from your AAPL post. Notice anything?
IJR=IWM; stronger. But IJR/IWM=TLT
Rates turning-over (thus TLT bounce)
The IWM/IJR vs TLT correlation imho represents what saves IWM: rates turning over rescues small caps that issued (securities) en masse in '20
Had $TLT (bottom chart) up from your AAPL post. Notice anything?
IJR=IWM; stronger. But IJR/IWM=TLT
Rates turning-over (thus TLT bounce)
The IWM/IJR vs TLT correlation imho represents what saves IWM: rates turning over rescues small caps that issued (securities) en masse in '20
Scary part for me, Mr. D: AAPL viewed as a replacement for duration in many ports for the 20yrs; was the very essence of tank-like security
Warren + the boys (institutional) been actively distributing it since early 3Q2024. PMs will stop buying eventually
Watching for AAPL/TLT inverse correlations
Warren + the boys (institutional) been actively distributing it since early 3Q2024. PMs will stop buying eventually
Watching for AAPL/TLT inverse correlations
January 21, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Scary part for me, Mr. D: AAPL viewed as a replacement for duration in many ports for the 20yrs; was the very essence of tank-like security
Warren + the boys (institutional) been actively distributing it since early 3Q2024. PMs will stop buying eventually
Watching for AAPL/TLT inverse correlations
Warren + the boys (institutional) been actively distributing it since early 3Q2024. PMs will stop buying eventually
Watching for AAPL/TLT inverse correlations
Now friends, the trade station is locked-away so that I don't suffer any "brilliant" seven-figure trade ideas while smoking doobs and sipping Lagavulin (neat). As such, apologies for the simple daily OHLC.
But do understand the $XLY is not a joke as a mkt-wide reversion and counter-trend indicator:
But do understand the $XLY is not a joke as a mkt-wide reversion and counter-trend indicator:
January 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Now friends, the trade station is locked-away so that I don't suffer any "brilliant" seven-figure trade ideas while smoking doobs and sipping Lagavulin (neat). As such, apologies for the simple daily OHLC.
But do understand the $XLY is not a joke as a mkt-wide reversion and counter-trend indicator:
But do understand the $XLY is not a joke as a mkt-wide reversion and counter-trend indicator:
Not trading until Monday. Did a nice 5mi up a mountainside before the sun rose this morn, now doing a little acoustic.
But re-read Rashke's (amazing) "Trading Sardines" over the holiday: and I'm now convinced I'll miss some amazingness or opportunities in markets while being a holiday forest hippy.
But re-read Rashke's (amazing) "Trading Sardines" over the holiday: and I'm now convinced I'll miss some amazingness or opportunities in markets while being a holiday forest hippy.
January 2, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Not trading until Monday. Did a nice 5mi up a mountainside before the sun rose this morn, now doing a little acoustic.
But re-read Rashke's (amazing) "Trading Sardines" over the holiday: and I'm now convinced I'll miss some amazingness or opportunities in markets while being a holiday forest hippy.
But re-read Rashke's (amazing) "Trading Sardines" over the holiday: and I'm now convinced I'll miss some amazingness or opportunities in markets while being a holiday forest hippy.
Pencils down, kids.
Glasses raised to those who trounced S&P returns this year.
And a "best of luck" to those who didn't in the year to come.
Glasses raised to those who trounced S&P returns this year.
And a "best of luck" to those who didn't in the year to come.
December 31, 2024 at 6:11 PM
Pencils down, kids.
Glasses raised to those who trounced S&P returns this year.
And a "best of luck" to those who didn't in the year to come.
Glasses raised to those who trounced S&P returns this year.
And a "best of luck" to those who didn't in the year to come.
In the spirit of respectful competition and good-natured disagreement, I present to you one Mr. Martin Zweig:
December 31, 2024 at 12:54 AM
In the spirit of respectful competition and good-natured disagreement, I present to you one Mr. Martin Zweig:
Well, most companies' goals are to profit. And just like you and me, the endless and varied departments of our government are consumers.
But if looking to profit on defense from your basement, there was a recent fake/Trump news story on Lockheed ($LMT) that attempted to push it down. Great levels:
But if looking to profit on defense from your basement, there was a recent fake/Trump news story on Lockheed ($LMT) that attempted to push it down. Great levels:
December 14, 2024 at 2:35 AM
Well, most companies' goals are to profit. And just like you and me, the endless and varied departments of our government are consumers.
But if looking to profit on defense from your basement, there was a recent fake/Trump news story on Lockheed ($LMT) that attempted to push it down. Great levels:
But if looking to profit on defense from your basement, there was a recent fake/Trump news story on Lockheed ($LMT) that attempted to push it down. Great levels:
For anyone interested in having the most fascinating, beautiful, and pleasant "Discover" feed on BlueSky, I highly recommend trying the following: even if only for a day.
Who knows, you might even find some new friends when all the hate-posting can't even make it past your Bluesky security team:
Who knows, you might even find some new friends when all the hate-posting can't even make it past your Bluesky security team:
December 14, 2024 at 1:56 AM
For anyone interested in having the most fascinating, beautiful, and pleasant "Discover" feed on BlueSky, I highly recommend trying the following: even if only for a day.
Who knows, you might even find some new friends when all the hate-posting can't even make it past your Bluesky security team:
Who knows, you might even find some new friends when all the hate-posting can't even make it past your Bluesky security team: