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"Utterly hated" – a contrarian call from my London dinner - Undervalued Shares
Will the narrative around British pub chains start to change soon? Insights from my recent London dinner.
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December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
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9/ It's a company that can benefit from i) an ongoing return of capital to shareholders, ii) the rapid growth of a new "asset-light" franchise division, iii) its founder and major shareholder who may be considering an exit over the medium term. And it's undervalued (obviously)!
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
9/ It's a company that can benefit from i) an ongoing return of capital to shareholders, ii) the rapid growth of a new "asset-light" franchise division, iii) its founder and major shareholder who may be considering an exit over the medium term. And it's undervalued (obviously)!
8/ For investors who share that concern, there are also larger pub companies to consider – such as this one 👇
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The return of the great British pub - Undervalued Shares
British pub stocks are down 50-80%. Could they deliver a recovery similar to that seen in the banking sector?
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December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
8/ For investors who share that concern, there are also larger pub companies to consider – such as this one 👇
www.undervalued-shares.com/reports/inve...
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7/ The London market offers an entire range of listed pub companies to pick from. Some lesser-known names include Daniel Thwaites, Marston's, and Shepherd Neame. However, many of these companies may simply be too small to attract meaningful attention, particularly from US investors.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
7/ The London market offers an entire range of listed pub companies to pick from. Some lesser-known names include Daniel Thwaites, Marston's, and Shepherd Neame. However, many of these companies may simply be too small to attract meaningful attention, particularly from US investors.
6/ 2025 has already delivered meaningful improvements: an increase in average weekly pub sales, a forecast slowdown in pub closures from 2026, and an expected 2% p.a. revenue growth through 2028. Larger pub chains are likely to outperform as they continue to take market share.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
6/ 2025 has already delivered meaningful improvements: an increase in average weekly pub sales, a forecast slowdown in pub closures from 2026, and an expected 2% p.a. revenue growth through 2028. Larger pub chains are likely to outperform as they continue to take market share.
5/ Over the past few years, the pub industry faced the proverbial perfect storm: Covid lockdowns, rising living and energy costs, additional taxes. It makes for dramatic headlines, but this may be precisely the moment when a contrarian bet makes sense.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
5/ Over the past few years, the pub industry faced the proverbial perfect storm: Covid lockdowns, rising living and energy costs, additional taxes. It makes for dramatic headlines, but this may be precisely the moment when a contrarian bet makes sense.
4/ Could British pub chains be next? They now also trade at single-digit earnings and – like banks once – they are widely hated. The prevailing perception is that of a dying industry: since 2000, the number of pubs in Britain has fallen from 60,000 to just 38,780.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
4/ Could British pub chains be next? They now also trade at single-digit earnings and – like banks once – they are widely hated. The prevailing perception is that of a dying industry: since 2000, the number of pubs in Britain has fallen from 60,000 to just 38,780.
3/ One sector where many investors now regret not getting in earlier is British banks. Over the past few years, British bank stocks have turned into stellar performers. Including dividends, NatWest is up ≈150%, Barclays around ≈175%, and HSBC ≈125%.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
3/ One sector where many investors now regret not getting in earlier is British banks. Over the past few years, British bank stocks have turned into stellar performers. Including dividends, NatWest is up ≈150%, Barclays around ≈175%, and HSBC ≈125%.
2/ The problem, of course, is obvious. You can be right about the sector, and still not own the companies that get bid for. There are situations where you might not want to own just an individual stock, but an entire sector.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
2/ The problem, of course, is obvious. You can be right about the sector, and still not own the companies that get bid for. There are situations where you might not want to own just an individual stock, but an entire sector.
1/ In the UK market, M&A has been the dominant catalyst for exits and re-ratings. Low valuations combined with ongoing takeover activity have made this approach quite lucrative. In recent years, average bid premia in the UK have risen from around 20% to 48%.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
1/ In the UK market, M&A has been the dominant catalyst for exits and re-ratings. Low valuations combined with ongoing takeover activity have made this approach quite lucrative. In recent years, average bid premia in the UK have risen from around 20% to 48%.
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Sark – what's next for the little island? - Undervalued Shares
Will I resurrect my bid for Sark? An update.
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December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
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10/ If you'd like to see Sark for yourself, DM to register your interest for "Sark Weekend 2026". The 2025 edition proved a huge success, as evidenced by this 48-minute video from The Wandering Investor. It's probably the best coverage of Sark in years!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=njUH...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=njUH...
I Visited the World's Poorest Tax Haven - SARK
YouTube video by The Wandering Investor
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December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
10/ If you'd like to see Sark for yourself, DM to register your interest for "Sark Weekend 2026". The 2025 edition proved a huge success, as evidenced by this 48-minute video from The Wandering Investor. It's probably the best coverage of Sark in years!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=njUH...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=njUH...
9/ At this stage, it's anyone's guess. If The Sark Property Company ever considered another bid, it would probably happen quickly, as raising large amounts of capital for Sark would no longer present an issue. The irony is, the company may simply not want to do so anymore.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
9/ At this stage, it's anyone's guess. If The Sark Property Company ever considered another bid, it would probably happen quickly, as raising large amounts of capital for Sark would no longer present an issue. The irony is, the company may simply not want to do so anymore.
8/ Beyond stagnation and decline, however, fortunes could suddenly change from a completely different angle. A sale of Castle Brecqhou could generate a seven-figure property transfer tax for the Sark treasury, or the Barclay family could return for round #2 of investing in Sark.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
8/ Beyond stagnation and decline, however, fortunes could suddenly change from a completely different angle. A sale of Castle Brecqhou could generate a seven-figure property transfer tax for the Sark treasury, or the Barclay family could return for round #2 of investing in Sark.
7/ It's become abundantly clear that Sark's future is uncertain. The island has effectively tied itself into a spaghetti ball of problems. At this point, mere further stagnation would arguably count as a success. More likely, however, it'll be yet more decline.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
7/ It's become abundantly clear that Sark's future is uncertain. The island has effectively tied itself into a spaghetti ball of problems. At this point, mere further stagnation would arguably count as a success. More likely, however, it'll be yet more decline.
6/ Realistically, Sark's challenging situation can only be addressed by the landowners – provided they organised and leveraged their economic power. However, with most being too old, too worn down, living abroad, or lacking the expertise, this will prove difficult.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
6/ Realistically, Sark's challenging situation can only be addressed by the landowners – provided they organised and leveraged their economic power. However, with most being too old, too worn down, living abroad, or lacking the expertise, this will prove difficult.
5/ The #1 wildcard for developments is the real estate portfolio held by a Barclay-linked trust. The Sark Property Company won't make another offer, though, believing the assets haven't gained value; it is also missing constructive engagement with Sark's government.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
5/ The #1 wildcard for developments is the real estate portfolio held by a Barclay-linked trust. The Sark Property Company won't make another offer, though, believing the assets haven't gained value; it is also missing constructive engagement with Sark's government.
4/ In such a small community, these issues inevitably create friction, as evidenced by the significant polarisation within Sark's parliament. Is Sark currently a place in which to settle or invest? Sadly, it has failed to actively build a future and strengthen its resilience.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
4/ In such a small community, these issues inevitably create friction, as evidenced by the significant polarisation within Sark's parliament. Is Sark currently a place in which to settle or invest? Sadly, it has failed to actively build a future and strengthen its resilience.
3/ Other issues include a massive infrastructure backlog, the seemingly never-ending drama surrounding Sark's electricity supply and the Sark Electricity Company, and diverse problems caused by changing demographics. Further tax hikes now seem inevitable as early as fiscal 2027.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
3/ Other issues include a massive infrastructure backlog, the seemingly never-ending drama surrounding Sark's electricity supply and the Sark Electricity Company, and diverse problems caused by changing demographics. Further tax hikes now seem inevitable as early as fiscal 2027.
2/ After the bid failed, Sark's challenges snowballed. The island has increased personal taxation for all residents, and parliament formally requested a GBP 1.5m loan from neighbouring island Guernsey, pledging its future alcohol tax revenue as collateral to secure the loan.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
2/ After the bid failed, Sark's challenges snowballed. The island has increased personal taxation for all residents, and parliament formally requested a GBP 1.5m loan from neighbouring island Guernsey, pledging its future alcohol tax revenue as collateral to secure the loan.
1/ The Sark Property Company was launched to facilitate Sark's gradual, sympathetic development while helping its long-term resilience. It mobilised an initial GBP 30m, with a view to raising up to another GBP 200m via an IPO on the London Stock Exchange.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
1/ The Sark Property Company was launched to facilitate Sark's gradual, sympathetic development while helping its long-term resilience. It mobilised an initial GBP 30m, with a view to raising up to another GBP 200m via an IPO on the London Stock Exchange.