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6/ 2025 has already delivered meaningful improvements: an increase in average weekly pub sales, a forecast slowdown in pub closures from 2026, and an expected 2% p.a. revenue growth through 2028. Larger pub chains are likely to outperform as they continue to take market share.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
6/ 2025 has already delivered meaningful improvements: an increase in average weekly pub sales, a forecast slowdown in pub closures from 2026, and an expected 2% p.a. revenue growth through 2028. Larger pub chains are likely to outperform as they continue to take market share.
5/ Over the past few years, the pub industry faced the proverbial perfect storm: Covid lockdowns, rising living and energy costs, additional taxes. It makes for dramatic headlines, but this may be precisely the moment when a contrarian bet makes sense.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
5/ Over the past few years, the pub industry faced the proverbial perfect storm: Covid lockdowns, rising living and energy costs, additional taxes. It makes for dramatic headlines, but this may be precisely the moment when a contrarian bet makes sense.
3/ One sector where many investors now regret not getting in earlier is British banks. Over the past few years, British bank stocks have turned into stellar performers. Including dividends, NatWest is up ≈150%, Barclays around ≈175%, and HSBC ≈125%.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
3/ One sector where many investors now regret not getting in earlier is British banks. Over the past few years, British bank stocks have turned into stellar performers. Including dividends, NatWest is up ≈150%, Barclays around ≈175%, and HSBC ≈125%.
"Utterly hated" – a contrarian call from my London dinner
The biggest risks in UK takeover investing, "utterly hated" business sectors, and how to spot opportunities in the market.
Insights from the most recent Undervalued Shares reader dinner.
The biggest risks in UK takeover investing, "utterly hated" business sectors, and how to spot opportunities in the market.
Insights from the most recent Undervalued Shares reader dinner.
December 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
"Utterly hated" – a contrarian call from my London dinner
The biggest risks in UK takeover investing, "utterly hated" business sectors, and how to spot opportunities in the market.
Insights from the most recent Undervalued Shares reader dinner.
The biggest risks in UK takeover investing, "utterly hated" business sectors, and how to spot opportunities in the market.
Insights from the most recent Undervalued Shares reader dinner.
7/ It's become abundantly clear that Sark's future is uncertain. The island has effectively tied itself into a spaghetti ball of problems. At this point, mere further stagnation would arguably count as a success. More likely, however, it'll be yet more decline.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
7/ It's become abundantly clear that Sark's future is uncertain. The island has effectively tied itself into a spaghetti ball of problems. At this point, mere further stagnation would arguably count as a success. More likely, however, it'll be yet more decline.
4/ In such a small community, these issues inevitably create friction, as evidenced by the significant polarisation within Sark's parliament. Is Sark currently a place in which to settle or invest? Sadly, it has failed to actively build a future and strengthen its resilience.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
4/ In such a small community, these issues inevitably create friction, as evidenced by the significant polarisation within Sark's parliament. Is Sark currently a place in which to settle or invest? Sadly, it has failed to actively build a future and strengthen its resilience.
2/ After the bid failed, Sark's challenges snowballed. The island has increased personal taxation for all residents, and parliament formally requested a GBP 1.5m loan from neighbouring island Guernsey, pledging its future alcohol tax revenue as collateral to secure the loan.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
2/ After the bid failed, Sark's challenges snowballed. The island has increased personal taxation for all residents, and parliament formally requested a GBP 1.5m loan from neighbouring island Guernsey, pledging its future alcohol tax revenue as collateral to secure the loan.
Sark – what's next for the little island?
One year ago, The Sark Property Company's bid to purchase a large chunk of Sark failed.
Since then, however, the questions have not stopped.
Halfway through the company's two-year hiatus, here is an update.
One year ago, The Sark Property Company's bid to purchase a large chunk of Sark failed.
Since then, however, the questions have not stopped.
Halfway through the company's two-year hiatus, here is an update.
December 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Sark – what's next for the little island?
One year ago, The Sark Property Company's bid to purchase a large chunk of Sark failed.
Since then, however, the questions have not stopped.
Halfway through the company's two-year hiatus, here is an update.
One year ago, The Sark Property Company's bid to purchase a large chunk of Sark failed.
Since then, however, the questions have not stopped.
Halfway through the company's two-year hiatus, here is an update.
5/ The latest UBS estimates project the stock to be trading at a P/E of 8 based on 2029 earnings – far too low for a company in this industry. Blessed be the investors (a.k.a. Best Ideas dinner attendees) who spotted this one early and got in below USD 20.
December 5, 2025 at 6:10 AM
5/ The latest UBS estimates project the stock to be trading at a P/E of 8 based on 2029 earnings – far too low for a company in this industry. Blessed be the investors (a.k.a. Best Ideas dinner attendees) who spotted this one early and got in below USD 20.
3/ Coverage did indeed expand just one month later with an initiation report by Goldman Sachs. By then, dinner attendees had already loaded up. Adam had suggested backing up the truck at prices below USD 20 – the stock has since reached USD 30, Adam's first price target.
December 5, 2025 at 6:10 AM
3/ Coverage did indeed expand just one month later with an initiation report by Goldman Sachs. By then, dinner attendees had already loaded up. Adam had suggested backing up the truck at prices below USD 20 – the stock has since reached USD 30, Adam's first price target.
Amentum and the power of my global readership
At the "Best Ideas" dinner in Washington DC, reader Adam Rossi presented an idea that was "not yet followed by analysts" and "no one knew or cared about the stock".
Amentum has since been discovered – and its share price has doubled.
At the "Best Ideas" dinner in Washington DC, reader Adam Rossi presented an idea that was "not yet followed by analysts" and "no one knew or cared about the stock".
Amentum has since been discovered – and its share price has doubled.
December 5, 2025 at 6:10 AM
Amentum and the power of my global readership
At the "Best Ideas" dinner in Washington DC, reader Adam Rossi presented an idea that was "not yet followed by analysts" and "no one knew or cared about the stock".
Amentum has since been discovered – and its share price has doubled.
At the "Best Ideas" dinner in Washington DC, reader Adam Rossi presented an idea that was "not yet followed by analysts" and "no one knew or cared about the stock".
Amentum has since been discovered – and its share price has doubled.
Just five companies rule 50% of the entire large-yacht market 💪
Among these power players, two are publicly listed: Ferretti and Sanlorenzo.
Are they worth a closer look?
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
Among these power players, two are publicly listed: Ferretti and Sanlorenzo.
Are they worth a closer look?
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
December 4, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Just five companies rule 50% of the entire large-yacht market 💪
Among these power players, two are publicly listed: Ferretti and Sanlorenzo.
Are they worth a closer look?
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
Among these power players, two are publicly listed: Ferretti and Sanlorenzo.
Are they worth a closer look?
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
Italy owns the superyacht game: six out of ten superyachts were born in Italian shipyards 🇮🇹
Turkey and the Netherlands, at roughly 10% each, can only watch from afar.
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
Turkey and the Netherlands, at roughly 10% each, can only watch from afar.
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
December 3, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Italy owns the superyacht game: six out of ten superyachts were born in Italian shipyards 🇮🇹
Turkey and the Netherlands, at roughly 10% each, can only watch from afar.
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
Turkey and the Netherlands, at roughly 10% each, can only watch from afar.
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
Luxury yachting is booming: the global superyacht fleet has grown six-fold since 1990.
More than 6,000 now cruise the seas, with another 700 on the way 🛥️
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
More than 6,000 now cruise the seas, with another 700 on the way 🛥️
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
December 2, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Luxury yachting is booming: the global superyacht fleet has grown six-fold since 1990.
More than 6,000 now cruise the seas, with another 700 on the way 🛥️
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
More than 6,000 now cruise the seas, with another 700 on the way 🛥️
www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispa...
9/ During the pandemic-driven yacht boom, Sanlorenzo's share price quadrupled but is now back to its 2021 level. The stock trades at 6x EV/EBITDA and 10x earnings, with a UBS target price of EUR 47 (vs EUR 31 currently). Sanlorenzo is debt-free and financially strong.
November 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
9/ During the pandemic-driven yacht boom, Sanlorenzo's share price quadrupled but is now back to its 2021 level. The stock trades at 6x EV/EBITDA and 10x earnings, with a UBS target price of EUR 47 (vs EUR 31 currently). Sanlorenzo is debt-free and financially strong.
7/ Ferretti currently trades at a discount to peers – just 4x 2026E EV/EBITDA. It's cheap in both relative and absolute terms, but it may only thrive once the Chinese exit the stage altogether. UBS has a target price of EUR 4.35, about 50% above the current share price.
November 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
7/ Ferretti currently trades at a discount to peers – just 4x 2026E EV/EBITDA. It's cheap in both relative and absolute terms, but it may only thrive once the Chinese exit the stage altogether. UBS has a target price of EUR 4.35, about 50% above the current share price.
6/ Ferretti is a special situation, due to its ownership structure and geopolitics. Majority-owned by a Chinese state-linked entity, the company was taken public in 2022, and dual-listed in Milan one year later, placing further shares. Today, the Chinese hold 37%.
November 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
6/ Ferretti is a special situation, due to its ownership structure and geopolitics. Majority-owned by a Chinese state-linked entity, the company was taken public in 2022, and dual-listed in Milan one year later, placing further shares. Today, the Chinese hold 37%.
5/ Just five companies control 50% of the global market for large yachts, including publicly listed Ferretti and Sanlorenzo. Listed in Milan and with market caps of around EUR 1bn each, are they worth a closer look?
November 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
5/ Just five companies control 50% of the global market for large yachts, including publicly listed Ferretti and Sanlorenzo. Listed in Milan and with market caps of around EUR 1bn each, are they worth a closer look?
4/ 60% of all superyachts sailing today were built in Italy. Turkey and the Netherlands each hold another 10% of the global market by units. Over 80% of the ≈700 large yachts currently under construction will come from Italy (57%), Turkey (17%), and the Netherlands (10%).
November 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
4/ 60% of all superyachts sailing today were built in Italy. Turkey and the Netherlands each hold another 10% of the global market by units. Over 80% of the ≈700 large yachts currently under construction will come from Italy (57%), Turkey (17%), and the Netherlands (10%).
3/ Plus, a growing number of destinations are now catering to this fast-growing clientele. Globally, marina capacity is expected to grow by 5.6% p.a. through the decade. Yachts over 100 feet are projected to grow at 6.8% p.a., vs 'only' 4.2% p.a. for smaller craft.
November 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
3/ Plus, a growing number of destinations are now catering to this fast-growing clientele. Globally, marina capacity is expected to grow by 5.6% p.a. through the decade. Yachts over 100 feet are projected to grow at 6.8% p.a., vs 'only' 4.2% p.a. for smaller craft.
1/ Since 1990, the number of superyachts worldwide has grown six-fold, from 1,000 to over 6,000 (with another 700 already under construction). Meanwhile, market penetration among the world's superwealthy has declined, from 2.2% in 2013 to just above 1% today.
November 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
1/ Since 1990, the number of superyachts worldwide has grown six-fold, from 1,000 to over 6,000 (with another 700 already under construction). Meanwhile, market penetration among the world's superwealthy has declined, from 2.2% in 2013 to just above 1% today.
Italian luxury yachts – two undiscovered growth plays
Italian yacht makers Ferretti and Sanlorenzo offer direct exposure to the fast-growing luxury yacht industry.
With both stocks offering 50% upside, investors should take a closer look.
Italian yacht makers Ferretti and Sanlorenzo offer direct exposure to the fast-growing luxury yacht industry.
With both stocks offering 50% upside, investors should take a closer look.
November 28, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Italian luxury yachts – two undiscovered growth plays
Italian yacht makers Ferretti and Sanlorenzo offer direct exposure to the fast-growing luxury yacht industry.
With both stocks offering 50% upside, investors should take a closer look.
Italian yacht makers Ferretti and Sanlorenzo offer direct exposure to the fast-growing luxury yacht industry.
With both stocks offering 50% upside, investors should take a closer look.
4/ "It became a little harder during the emerging market stage. Once you got into the developed stage, it became very hard to generate excess returns over the benchmark because the market has become so much more efficient."
November 24, 2025 at 5:49 PM
4/ "It became a little harder during the emerging market stage. Once you got into the developed stage, it became very hard to generate excess returns over the benchmark because the market has become so much more efficient."
3/ "… has it become easier or harder to generate excess returns as the US progressed to developed market status? ... during the frontier stage in the US market, it was actually the easiest time to generate excess returns over the benchmark."
November 24, 2025 at 5:49 PM
3/ "… has it become easier or harder to generate excess returns as the US progressed to developed market status? ... during the frontier stage in the US market, it was actually the easiest time to generate excess returns over the benchmark."
Value Investing in a Global Setting – Risk Perception versus Reality
Should value investors avoid (or embrace) frontier and emerging markets?
Pavel Begun of 3G Capital Management shared his insights at the annual Explorer Summit in Florida.
A (shortened) transcript.
Should value investors avoid (or embrace) frontier and emerging markets?
Pavel Begun of 3G Capital Management shared his insights at the annual Explorer Summit in Florida.
A (shortened) transcript.
November 24, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Value Investing in a Global Setting – Risk Perception versus Reality
Should value investors avoid (or embrace) frontier and emerging markets?
Pavel Begun of 3G Capital Management shared his insights at the annual Explorer Summit in Florida.
A (shortened) transcript.
Should value investors avoid (or embrace) frontier and emerging markets?
Pavel Begun of 3G Capital Management shared his insights at the annual Explorer Summit in Florida.
A (shortened) transcript.