Extraordinary Least Squares
@unbiased-estimator.bsky.social
Polisci guy. Clean on opsec.
Google AI is actually a Mechanical Turk(ish-owned politician)
November 11, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Google AI is actually a Mechanical Turk(ish-owned politician)
I suppose that probably was part of Lucas’ thought process, but the fact that the execution was akin to Michael Scott’s diversity training probably ought to have some bearing on the overall assessment
November 10, 2025 at 9:03 PM
I suppose that probably was part of Lucas’ thought process, but the fact that the execution was akin to Michael Scott’s diversity training probably ought to have some bearing on the overall assessment
I think that’s probably right, but I’m still annoyed that the Dems had been telegraphing this for a week. If they had a better poker face I just wonder if some moderate Reps would’ve caved. Getting Trump and Johnson to accept would still be a challenge, but Dems could’ve tried harder.
November 10, 2025 at 8:55 AM
I think that’s probably right, but I’m still annoyed that the Dems had been telegraphing this for a week. If they had a better poker face I just wonder if some moderate Reps would’ve caved. Getting Trump and Johnson to accept would still be a challenge, but Dems could’ve tried harder.
From a purely cynical perspective there is a case to be made that the best outcome for Dems was raising the salience of the subsidy cuts while failing to stop them. The questions are how well they executed the messaging piece and whether they did collateral damage to deterrents against Trump.
November 10, 2025 at 3:01 AM
From a purely cynical perspective there is a case to be made that the best outcome for Dems was raising the salience of the subsidy cuts while failing to stop them. The questions are how well they executed the messaging piece and whether they did collateral damage to deterrents against Trump.
Probably doesn’t help that the NYT, Atlantic and most of the top substacks are dedicated to hammering the point that the Dem base is out of step with the rest of the country and should be ignored
November 10, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Probably doesn’t help that the NYT, Atlantic and most of the top substacks are dedicated to hammering the point that the Dem base is out of step with the rest of the country and should be ignored
Yes exactly it’s a non-sequitur. Does literally nothing to address the premium increases.
November 9, 2025 at 11:59 PM
Yes exactly it’s a non-sequitur. Does literally nothing to address the premium increases.
Great flavors, have you thought about making it into a smoothie?
November 6, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Great flavors, have you thought about making it into a smoothie?
So sorry to hear that, I enjoyed Inner Loop, I’ll definitely check out the Substack
November 6, 2025 at 8:16 PM
So sorry to hear that, I enjoyed Inner Loop, I’ll definitely check out the Substack
I’m talking about how much they outperformed the winning margin, not vote share
November 6, 2025 at 1:36 PM
I’m talking about how much they outperformed the winning margin, not vote share
Youngkin outperforms Trump 2020 by 12pts: brilliant; savior of his party
Spanberger outperforms Harris 2024 by 10pts: underwhelming; failed to make a dent in her party’s problems
Spanberger outperforms Harris 2024 by 10pts: underwhelming; failed to make a dent in her party’s problems
November 5, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Youngkin outperforms Trump 2020 by 12pts: brilliant; savior of his party
Spanberger outperforms Harris 2024 by 10pts: underwhelming; failed to make a dent in her party’s problems
Spanberger outperforms Harris 2024 by 10pts: underwhelming; failed to make a dent in her party’s problems
A second previously data-driven Nate who has transitioned to traditional vibes-based punditry has hit the discourse
November 5, 2025 at 6:55 PM
A second previously data-driven Nate who has transitioned to traditional vibes-based punditry has hit the discourse
Ok but Threads will be popping off about this game in about 36 hours
November 2, 2025 at 3:52 AM
Ok but Threads will be popping off about this game in about 36 hours
Trump's SEC hires:
LSU - Mike Ditka
Florida - Jimmy Johnson
Auburn - Clay Travis
Arkansas - Marco Rubio
Ole Miss - Bill Belichick
Oklahoma - D.J. Durkin
#cfb #sec
LSU - Mike Ditka
Florida - Jimmy Johnson
Auburn - Clay Travis
Arkansas - Marco Rubio
Ole Miss - Bill Belichick
Oklahoma - D.J. Durkin
#cfb #sec
The fastest way for the Democrats to become competitive in the south again would be for Trump to make a bunch of SEC football hires. I think everyone should let Jeff Landry know what a great idea that is.
November 2, 2025 at 1:23 AM
I think Ganz is still pretty good and normal? He gets into a flame war now again, but usually with deserving targets.
November 1, 2025 at 1:13 AM
I think Ganz is still pretty good and normal? He gets into a flame war now again, but usually with deserving targets.
this is such a good point. I shit on the boomers a lot but they were so good at coming up with slang for body parts and drugs.
October 29, 2025 at 2:57 AM
this is such a good point. I shit on the boomers a lot but they were so good at coming up with slang for body parts and drugs.