That's the worst part. It's all so senseless and stupid. Careless people destroying complex systems that they don't understand. Grifters extracting rents, with no concern other than to hoard whatever they can. Decades of knowledge purged from the agencies that keep Americans safe.

And the lost capacity, the suffering, and all the other damage makes it harder to imagine the elections going well, either. Much less rebuilding afterward.

Hell, are we better off with a doddering narcissist or under J.D. Vance and the night of long knives? We'll find out when we find out.

And also, never underestimate the frightening things people do when cornered. “Losing his grip on power” with 3 years to go scares me. A lot.

Yeah I don’t think anyone on the thread really disagrees with each other fundamentally. I’m just too cynical and demoralized to take much comfort from “his grip on power is slipping” or “lame duck” stories. Lame ducks can still do a lot of damage! The power of the US presidency is enormous.

I agree. The damage to public health and governing institutions, the politicization of DOJ (a lot) and the military (ramping up), the attacks on universities, the oligarch consolidation of media, the construction of a rights-violating domestic force — all really bad and may be impossible to reverse.

I guess I see the elections as important (obviously) but not the only dimension on which to base my judgement of the trajectory. Many consolidated authoritarian regimes have decent healthcare, we reintroduced measles and canceled vaccines. The midterms are 2 years away.

It’s different, yes, and will almost certainly get worse before it gets better.

I’m increasingly optimistic (guardedly, but still) that the regime will fall, rather than successfully tilting, cancelling, or overthrowing elections. But even in that relatively positive scenario,very hard to repair.

That it’s happening in America is exceptionally terrible not because we’re this paragon of virtue but because the US is still so powerful. It can affect everyone. Probably in ways we haven’t even thought of yet.

I don’t mean this to erase past horrors. But to see this all happening at once in year 1, with no systematic way to stop it, is too much to retain optimism. At least for me. Certainly consolidated authoritarianism would be worse, but this is still unimaginably bad, with no real constraints in sight.

I just can’t see past the enormous power of the presidency and the enormity of US power that allows Trump to harm on a massive scale at home & abroad. America has done many terrible things. But the scale of this is staggering and losing grip on power doesn’t usually translate into less suffering.

That's why @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social is right, the frame is trying slow and then stop authoritarian consolidation. We have to assume a slow grind — and that we won't be able to stop a lot of the bad shit. Many of our futures get to regime defeat via routes we've seen in Latin America or the FSU.

Agree. But I’m not even talking about what comes after, though that’s crucial. I’m talking about the ongoing damage happening now. So much of it cannot be stopped by elections, or even judges. Citizens are doing heroic things. But the incompetent unconsolidated goons are killing and harming now.

I'm getting increasingly optimistic that we can deter or defeat a coup, even if Trump is still alive and conscious in 2026 and 2028 — although I'm still terrified that there's not enough contingency planning among Democrats.

But what comes after? The scope of massive reforms needed? Not so much.

I guess one question is whether we can get back to a “normal” democracy if things are this bad and maybe getting worse with 3 years left. How long would the “doing ok” frame last? Are the two frames linked?

It does feel like the odds have improved. But @profsaunders.bsky.social is entirely right that the Trump administration has been wildly successful in creating a loyalist, well-equipped, domestic security force.