Troy Teslike
@troyteslike.bsky.social
Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon.
My average error rate is 1.4% for Tesla's production and 3.0% for deliveries.
My average error rate is 1.4% for Tesla's production and 3.0% for deliveries.
Actual numbers are in: Tesla delivered 497,099 cars in Q3. My estimate was 3.2% too low, while the analyst consensus missed by 10.9%.
My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
October 2, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Actual numbers are in: Tesla delivered 497,099 cars in Q3. My estimate was 3.2% too low, while the analyst consensus missed by 10.9%.
My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
Yes, but I can’t access the direct messages feature anymore. This applies to all users in the UK. I’ll probably use Bluesky much less from now on, since there’s little reason to build up a following here without DMs.
September 26, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Yes, but I can’t access the direct messages feature anymore. This applies to all users in the UK. I’ll probably use Bluesky much less from now on, since there’s little reason to build up a following here without DMs.
August 30, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Yes, but I can’t access the direct messages feature anymore. This applies to all users in the UK. I’ll probably use Bluesky much less from now on, since there’s little reason to build up a following here without DMs.
I have this data until 7 Jun 2025, but the chart ends at the end of March 2025 because I post this content on Patreon and don't want to share too much information.
July 23, 2025 at 6:06 PM
I have this data until 7 Jun 2025, but the chart ends at the end of March 2025 because I post this content on Patreon and don't want to share too much information.
OK. See bsky.app/profile/troy...
Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings:
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.42
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.42
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.
July 23, 2025 at 3:44 PM
OK. See bsky.app/profile/troy...
2/2
... Q1 2025 that they sold for the same price as the Long Range AWD version (shown in blue).
You can also see the gradual price cuts throughout Q1 2025, as Tesla cleared out the older Model Y Classic versions before launching the Juniper design refresh.
... Q1 2025 that they sold for the same price as the Long Range AWD version (shown in blue).
You can also see the gradual price cuts throughout Q1 2025, as Tesla cleared out the older Model Y Classic versions before launching the Juniper design refresh.
July 17, 2025 at 4:50 AM
2/2
... Q1 2025 that they sold for the same price as the Long Range AWD version (shown in blue).
You can also see the gradual price cuts throughout Q1 2025, as Tesla cleared out the older Model Y Classic versions before launching the Juniper design refresh.
... Q1 2025 that they sold for the same price as the Long Range AWD version (shown in blue).
You can also see the gradual price cuts throughout Q1 2025, as Tesla cleared out the older Model Y Classic versions before launching the Juniper design refresh.
• $7,500 federal tax credit ends after Sep 30, 2025.
• Regulatory credits in the US end tomorrow.
The Big Beautiful Bill cancels both of them.
• Regulatory credits in the US end tomorrow.
The Big Beautiful Bill cancels both of them.
July 4, 2025 at 3:36 AM
• $7,500 federal tax credit ends after Sep 30, 2025.
• Regulatory credits in the US end tomorrow.
The Big Beautiful Bill cancels both of them.
• Regulatory credits in the US end tomorrow.
The Big Beautiful Bill cancels both of them.
Check out Sawyer's explanation. I agree with his interpretation. I also looked into this topic using Perplexity AI.
x.com/SawyerMerrit...
x.com/SawyerMerrit...
Sawyer Merritt on X: "I just spent hours reviewing the final version of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which he will sign into law in the coming days. There's a lot of important stuff related to EVs, renewable energy, and more. Here's everything you need to know: • $7,500 EV credit for new vehicles: https://t.co/CG49KzsQJQ" / X
I just spent hours reviewing the final version of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which he will sign into law in the coming days. There's a lot of important stuff related to EVs, renewable energy, and more. Here's everything you need to know: • $7,500 EV credit for new vehicles: https://t.co/CG49KzsQJQ
x.com
July 4, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Check out Sawyer's explanation. I agree with his interpretation. I also looked into this topic using Perplexity AI.
x.com/SawyerMerrit...
x.com/SawyerMerrit...
Tesla sells these credits at a discount compared to the fine, making them the cheaper option. The new bill reduces the fine to zero, removing the need to buy credits.
As a result, Tesla’s US regulatory credits will become worthless, though they will continue to earn credits in Europe and China
2/2
As a result, Tesla’s US regulatory credits will become worthless, though they will continue to earn credits in Europe and China
2/2
congress.gov
July 3, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Tesla sells these credits at a discount compared to the fine, making them the cheaper option. The new bill reduces the fine to zero, removing the need to buy credits.
As a result, Tesla’s US regulatory credits will become worthless, though they will continue to earn credits in Europe and China
2/2
As a result, Tesla’s US regulatory credits will become worthless, though they will continue to earn credits in Europe and China
2/2
Both deliveries and production were much higher than I estimated. I was expecting a 19.8% year-over-year decline, but sales fell by only 13.5% compared to last year's Q2.
Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
July 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Both deliveries and production were much higher than I estimated. I was expecting a 19.8% year-over-year decline, but sales fell by only 13.5% compared to last year's Q2.
Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
July 2, 2025, between 9:00 and 9:10 am Eastern Time.
June 30, 2025 at 10:32 PM
July 2, 2025, between 9:00 and 9:10 am Eastern Time.
2/2
However, Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: www.tesla.com/findus/list/...), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.
However, Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: www.tesla.com/findus/list/...), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.
www.tesla.com
June 29, 2025 at 6:38 PM
2/2
However, Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: www.tesla.com/findus/list/...), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.
However, Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: www.tesla.com/findus/list/...), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.