Troy Teslike
@troyteslike.bsky.social
Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon.
My average error rate is 1.4% for Tesla's production and 3.0% for deliveries.
My average error rate is 1.4% for Tesla's production and 3.0% for deliveries.
Actual numbers are in: Tesla delivered 497,099 cars in Q3. My estimate was 3.2% too low, while the analyst consensus missed by 10.9%.
My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
October 2, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Actual numbers are in: Tesla delivered 497,099 cars in Q3. My estimate was 3.2% too low, while the analyst consensus missed by 10.9%.
My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
My Estimate: 481,000
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
Tesla is expected to release its Q3 2025 production and delivery numbers tomorrow. When markets are open, as they will be tomorrow, the numbers are released at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
October 1, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Tesla is expected to release its Q3 2025 production and delivery numbers tomorrow. When markets are open, as they will be tomorrow, the numbers are released at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
Hi everyone, here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q3 2025. For reference, deliveries were 462,890 units in Q3 2024.
• My estimate: 481,000
• Analyst consensus: 443,079 (from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26)
• My estimate: 481,000
• Analyst consensus: 443,079 (from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26)
September 30, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Hi everyone, here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q3 2025. For reference, deliveries were 462,890 units in Q3 2024.
• My estimate: 481,000
• Analyst consensus: 443,079 (from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26)
• My estimate: 481,000
• Analyst consensus: 443,079 (from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26)
Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings:
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.42
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.42
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.
July 23, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings:
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.42
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.42
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.
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Hi everyone. The chart shows Model Y sales prices in the US based on DMV data. Each dot represents a vehicle, and each color shows a different trim level.
The most interesting part is that some Performance versions (shown in red) were so heavily discounted at the end of Q4 2024 and ...
Hi everyone. The chart shows Model Y sales prices in the US based on DMV data. Each dot represents a vehicle, and each color shows a different trim level.
The most interesting part is that some Performance versions (shown in red) were so heavily discounted at the end of Q4 2024 and ...
July 17, 2025 at 4:50 AM
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Hi everyone. The chart shows Model Y sales prices in the US based on DMV data. Each dot represents a vehicle, and each color shows a different trim level.
The most interesting part is that some Performance versions (shown in red) were so heavily discounted at the end of Q4 2024 and ...
Hi everyone. The chart shows Model Y sales prices in the US based on DMV data. Each dot represents a vehicle, and each color shows a different trim level.
The most interesting part is that some Performance versions (shown in red) were so heavily discounted at the end of Q4 2024 and ...
Hi everyone. The chart shows actual Tesla sales in Europe, based on vehicle registration data from 25 countries.
In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units, down 29% year-over-year from 78,417 units in Q2 2024.
Tesla has been struggling with brand image issues caused by political controversy.
In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units, down 29% year-over-year from 78,417 units in Q2 2024.
Tesla has been struggling with brand image issues caused by political controversy.
July 12, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Hi everyone. The chart shows actual Tesla sales in Europe, based on vehicle registration data from 25 countries.
In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units, down 29% year-over-year from 78,417 units in Q2 2024.
Tesla has been struggling with brand image issues caused by political controversy.
In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units, down 29% year-over-year from 78,417 units in Q2 2024.
Tesla has been struggling with brand image issues caused by political controversy.
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as ZEV credits.
Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits.
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Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits.
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July 3, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as ZEV credits.
Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits.
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Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits.
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The table on the left shows my error rate. The one on the right shows the analyst consensus. My error rate is still lower than the consensus, but the gap is narrowing. I need more accurate results going forward, which means understanding what went wrong and finding ways to improve it.
July 3, 2025 at 9:19 AM
The table on the left shows my error rate. The one on the right shows the analyst consensus. My error rate is still lower than the consensus, but the gap is narrowing. I need more accurate results going forward, which means understanding what went wrong and finding ways to improve it.
For maximum transparency, here’s my delivery error rate versus the analyst consensus (based on Tesla’s survey, also known as the company-compiled consensus) over the past 16 quarters.
Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.
Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.
July 2, 2025 at 5:16 PM
For maximum transparency, here’s my delivery error rate versus the analyst consensus (based on Tesla’s survey, also known as the company-compiled consensus) over the past 16 quarters.
Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.
Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.
Tesla deliveries were down by 50,129 units in Q1 and 59,834 units in Q2 2025 year-over-year. Q3 will also be challenging, as last year’s Q3 was strong with 462,890 units delivered.
However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.
However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.
July 2, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Tesla deliveries were down by 50,129 units in Q1 and 59,834 units in Q2 2025 year-over-year. Q3 will also be challenging, as last year’s Q3 was strong with 462,890 units delivered.
However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.
However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.
Tesla deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, the largest decline in the company's history. This follows a 13.0% drop in Q1 2025.
Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.
Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.
July 2, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Tesla deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, the largest decline in the company's history. This follows a 13.0% drop in Q1 2025.
Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.
Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.
This is my initial calculation for Tesla’s regional deliveries in Q2 2025. I’ll update the table as more registration data becomes available over the next few days.
July 2, 2025 at 2:03 PM
This is my initial calculation for Tesla’s regional deliveries in Q2 2025. I’ll update the table as more registration data becomes available over the next few days.
Both deliveries and production were much higher than I estimated. I was expecting a 19.8% year-over-year decline, but sales fell by only 13.5% compared to last year's Q2.
Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
July 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Both deliveries and production were much higher than I estimated. I was expecting a 19.8% year-over-year decline, but sales fell by only 13.5% compared to last year's Q2.
Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Actual: 384,122
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
Here are my final Tesla delivery estimates for this quarter. I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 3.0% average over the last 12 quarters.
Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
June 30, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Here are my final Tesla delivery estimates for this quarter. I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 3.0% average over the last 12 quarters.
Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025:
• My estimate: 356,000
• Analyst consensus: 385,086
• Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
Tesla doesn’t report Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X sales separately. Instead, it combines all three into a single number.
That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.
That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.
June 27, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Tesla doesn’t report Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X sales separately. Instead, it combines all three into a single number.
That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.
That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.
Today's update on Patreon (patreon.com/posts/132143...) includes DMV VIN data up to June 25. I use it to estimate Tesla’s production.
Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries.
However, I’ll post my final estimates on June 30th here as well.
Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries.
However, I’ll post my final estimates on June 30th here as well.
June 27, 2025 at 3:48 AM
Today's update on Patreon (patreon.com/posts/132143...) includes DMV VIN data up to June 25. I use it to estimate Tesla’s production.
Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries.
However, I’ll post my final estimates on June 30th here as well.
Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries.
However, I’ll post my final estimates on June 30th here as well.
The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover.
Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12):
• Q1 2025: 116,119 units
• Q2 2025: 109,520 units
Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12):
• Q1 2025: 116,119 units
• Q2 2025: 109,520 units
June 25, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover.
Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12):
• Q1 2025: 116,119 units
• Q2 2025: 109,520 units
Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12):
• Q1 2025: 116,119 units
• Q2 2025: 109,520 units
Based on the latest data, Tesla sales in Europe remain weak. The chart shows sales over the past few quarters, with Q1 2025 being very low, which Tesla blamed on the Model Y Juniper production changeover in March. However, Q2 shows no improvement over Q1.
June 24, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Based on the latest data, Tesla sales in Europe remain weak. The chart shows sales over the past few quarters, with Q1 2025 being very low, which Tesla blamed on the Model Y Juniper production changeover in March. However, Q2 shows no improvement over Q1.
Tesla will conduct a delivery survey with analysts. Typically, about 27 Tesla analysts take part in this survey. It’s the largest survey of its kind and is called the Company-Compiled Consensus.
This was the previous one three months ago.
This was the previous one three months ago.
June 22, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Tesla will conduct a delivery survey with analysts. Typically, about 27 Tesla analysts take part in this survey. It’s the largest survey of its kind and is called the Company-Compiled Consensus.
This was the previous one three months ago.
This was the previous one three months ago.
Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down 35% YOY.
Sales are down everywhere except Norway & Spain. Norway will be ~1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s small compared to the declines elsewhere
Sales are down everywhere except Norway & Spain. Norway will be ~1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s small compared to the declines elsewhere
June 21, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down 35% YOY.
Sales are down everywhere except Norway & Spain. Norway will be ~1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s small compared to the declines elsewhere
Sales are down everywhere except Norway & Spain. Norway will be ~1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s small compared to the declines elsewhere
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In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%.
In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth.
In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%.
In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth.
May 5, 2025 at 8:17 AM
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In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%.
In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth.
In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%.
In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth.
Tesla often responds to slowing demand with price cuts and promotions. As a result, deliveries in 2024 declined by just 1%, while automotive gross profit excluding regulatory credits dropped nearly 20%. I expect the same trend to continue this year, but with much steeper declines in both numbers.
May 4, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Tesla often responds to slowing demand with price cuts and promotions. As a result, deliveries in 2024 declined by just 1%, while automotive gross profit excluding regulatory credits dropped nearly 20%. I expect the same trend to continue this year, but with much steeper declines in both numbers.
Tesla deliveries dropped by just 1.1% in 2024, but I expect a much bigger drop this year. Based on Tesla's performance so far, deliveries in 2025 won’t be down just a few percent.
April 28, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Tesla deliveries dropped by just 1.1% in 2024, but I expect a much bigger drop this year. Based on Tesla's performance so far, deliveries in 2025 won’t be down just a few percent.
Analyst consensus for Tesla deliveries this year is now 1,731,000 units, lower than the 1,789,226 units delivered in 2024.
Back in January, the consensus was over 2 million deliveries, but it has dropped since then. Still, 1,731,000 seems too high based on how Tesla has performed so far this year.
Back in January, the consensus was over 2 million deliveries, but it has dropped since then. Still, 1,731,000 seems too high based on how Tesla has performed so far this year.
April 27, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Analyst consensus for Tesla deliveries this year is now 1,731,000 units, lower than the 1,789,226 units delivered in 2024.
Back in January, the consensus was over 2 million deliveries, but it has dropped since then. Still, 1,731,000 seems too high based on how Tesla has performed so far this year.
Back in January, the consensus was over 2 million deliveries, but it has dropped since then. Still, 1,731,000 seems too high based on how Tesla has performed so far this year.
Tesla's Automotive Gross Margin Excluding Regulatory Credits dropped to 12.5% in Q1 2025, its lowest in recent years.
April 27, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Tesla's Automotive Gross Margin Excluding Regulatory Credits dropped to 12.5% in Q1 2025, its lowest in recent years.