Csaba G. Tóth
@tothgcsaba.bsky.social
Demographer and economist.
population dynamics | mortality | population ageing | fertility | public policy
https://sites.google.com/view/tothgcs
population dynamics | mortality | population ageing | fertility | public policy
https://sites.google.com/view/tothgcs
The young age profile fully offset population losses from negative migration in Central and Eastern Europe between 1990 and 2020. Population Council just featured my Population and Development Review paper in a short summary!
#demography #migration #Poland
popcouncil.org/insight/driver…
#demography #migration #Poland
popcouncil.org/insight/driver…
November 7, 2025 at 10:19 AM
The young age profile fully offset population losses from negative migration in Central and Eastern Europe between 1990 and 2020. Population Council just featured my Population and Development Review paper in a short summary!
#demography #migration #Poland
popcouncil.org/insight/driver…
#demography #migration #Poland
popcouncil.org/insight/driver…
South Korea’s dramatic fertility decline over the past 25 years has been driven mainly by falling birth rates among women aged 25–29. Since 2012, fertility among those aged 30–34 has also dropped sharply.
#demography #fertility #SouthKorea #population
#demography #fertility #SouthKorea #population
November 5, 2025 at 7:28 PM
South Korea’s dramatic fertility decline over the past 25 years has been driven mainly by falling birth rates among women aged 25–29. Since 2012, fertility among those aged 30–34 has also dropped sharply.
#demography #fertility #SouthKorea #population
#demography #fertility #SouthKorea #population
The age pattern of divorce among men has flattened over the past 25 years. Around the millennium, the risk of divorce fell sharply with age; today in Hungary, it’s nearly the same from 25 to 55. The same pattern holds for women.
#demography #divorce #motherhood #Hungary #marriage
#demography #divorce #motherhood #Hungary #marriage
October 29, 2025 at 9:57 AM
The age pattern of divorce among men has flattened over the past 25 years. Around the millennium, the risk of divorce fell sharply with age; today in Hungary, it’s nearly the same from 25 to 55. The same pattern holds for women.
#demography #divorce #motherhood #Hungary #marriage
#demography #divorce #motherhood #Hungary #marriage
📢My paper is out in Population and Development Review.😀Central and Eastern Europe’s population change isn’t just about fertility, mortality, and migration — the age structure also an important factor.
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
October 23, 2025 at 8:06 PM
📢My paper is out in Population and Development Review.😀Central and Eastern Europe’s population change isn’t just about fertility, mortality, and migration — the age structure also an important factor.
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
White and Black Americans are hit harder by the US opioid crisis than Hispanics. In 2023, overdoses claimed 107,000 lives, over 75% tied to opioids. A new study says the surge is mainly supply-driven.
#demography #US #America
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#demography #US #America
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
September 26, 2025 at 9:42 PM
White and Black Americans are hit harder by the US opioid crisis than Hispanics. In 2023, overdoses claimed 107,000 lives, over 75% tied to opioids. A new study says the surge is mainly supply-driven.
#demography #US #America
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#demography #US #America
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Over the last two decades, Romania, Czechia and Slovakia cut their life expectancy gap with the EU27. But Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria remain stuck — showing little convergence.
#demography #lifespan #Poland #Hungary #Romania
#demography #lifespan #Poland #Hungary #Romania
September 14, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Over the last two decades, Romania, Czechia and Slovakia cut their life expectancy gap with the EU27. But Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria remain stuck — showing little convergence.
#demography #lifespan #Poland #Hungary #Romania
#demography #lifespan #Poland #Hungary #Romania
Great honour to present my research at the Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies in Swansea — in the session with the undeniably sexy name: Innovations in Formal and Mathematical Demography. 🤓
#Demography #BSPS25
@bspsuk.bsky.social
#Demography #BSPS25
@bspsuk.bsky.social
August 29, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Great honour to present my research at the Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies in Swansea — in the session with the undeniably sexy name: Innovations in Formal and Mathematical Demography. 🤓
#Demography #BSPS25
@bspsuk.bsky.social
#Demography #BSPS25
@bspsuk.bsky.social
Fertility boom in Kazakhstan should receive more attention: TFR increased from 1.9 to 3.3 over two decades. This seems to be an example of a reversed fertility transition, with rising progressions to higher-order births and little fertility postponement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#fertility
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#fertility
August 24, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Fertility boom in Kazakhstan should receive more attention: TFR increased from 1.9 to 3.3 over two decades. This seems to be an example of a reversed fertility transition, with rising progressions to higher-order births and little fertility postponement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#fertility
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#fertility
Below-replacement fertility can have very different outcomes. With a TFR of about 1 (as in China or Malta), the third generation is only one-quarter the size of the first. With a TFR of about 1.7 (as in Bulgaria or Romania), it is three-quarters the size.
#demography #fertility #population
#demography #fertility #population
August 12, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Below-replacement fertility can have very different outcomes. With a TFR of about 1 (as in China or Malta), the third generation is only one-quarter the size of the first. With a TFR of about 1.7 (as in Bulgaria or Romania), it is three-quarters the size.
#demography #fertility #population
#demography #fertility #population
Hungary’s fertility rate fell below 1.3 in the first half of the year. Combined with a shrinking reproductive-age population, this led to 10,000 fewer births compared to 2021.
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary
August 3, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Hungary’s fertility rate fell below 1.3 in the first half of the year. Combined with a shrinking reproductive-age population, this led to 10,000 fewer births compared to 2021.
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary
#demography #population #fertility #Hungary
More men died from COVID-19, but since men generally have a higher risk of death at all ages, women weren’t always better off when looking at the increase in mortality. In some cases, their death rates rose even more. Excellent new study just out!
medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
#demography #Population
medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
#demography #Population
July 29, 2025 at 9:01 PM
More men died from COVID-19, but since men generally have a higher risk of death at all ages, women weren’t always better off when looking at the increase in mortality. In some cases, their death rates rose even more. Excellent new study just out!
medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
#demography #Population
medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
#demography #Population
The fertility gap between graduate and non-graduate women becomes statistically insignificant when accounting for first-in-family (FiF) status. FiF graduates have fewer children than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#demography #fertility #population #UK
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#demography #fertility #population #UK
July 28, 2025 at 1:33 PM
The fertility gap between graduate and non-graduate women becomes statistically insignificant when accounting for first-in-family (FiF) status. FiF graduates have fewer children than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#demography #fertility #population #UK
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#demography #fertility #population #UK
Life expectancy gains have slowed sharply in the past decade in Western Europe. The increase was just 1.1 years, less than half the progress seen in earlier decades.
#demograpy #population #lifepan #Poland #Germany #UK #France #Italy
#demograpy #population #lifepan #Poland #Germany #UK #France #Italy
July 22, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Life expectancy gains have slowed sharply in the past decade in Western Europe. The increase was just 1.1 years, less than half the progress seen in earlier decades.
#demograpy #population #lifepan #Poland #Germany #UK #France #Italy
#demograpy #population #lifepan #Poland #Germany #UK #France #Italy
Romania’s population dropped from 23.2M to 19.3M between 1990 and 2020. The decline was driven by net out-migration and low fertility, partly offset by a relatively young age structure and rising life expectancy.
Source:
#demography #population #Romania #Bukarest
osf.io/preprints/so...
Source:
#demography #population #Romania #Bukarest
osf.io/preprints/so...
July 17, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Romania’s population dropped from 23.2M to 19.3M between 1990 and 2020. The decline was driven by net out-migration and low fertility, partly offset by a relatively young age structure and rising life expectancy.
Source:
#demography #population #Romania #Bukarest
osf.io/preprints/so...
Source:
#demography #population #Romania #Bukarest
osf.io/preprints/so...
Fertility in the EU27 fell to a historic low below 1.4 in 2023. The TFR of 1.38 marks a 0.15-point drop in just two years.
#demography #fertility #babies #EU #Germany #Poland #Italy #France #Spain
#demography #fertility #babies #EU #Germany #Poland #Italy #France #Spain
May 28, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Fertility in the EU27 fell to a historic low below 1.4 in 2023. The TFR of 1.38 marks a 0.15-point drop in just two years.
#demography #fertility #babies #EU #Germany #Poland #Italy #France #Spain
#demography #fertility #babies #EU #Germany #Poland #Italy #France #Spain
A strange coupling in the global demographic dance: Europe moves in sync with North America, while Asia aligns more closely with South America.👩❤️👨👯
#demography #fertility #US #Europe #Asia #Brasil #UK #Germany #India #China #population
#demography #fertility #US #Europe #Asia #Brasil #UK #Germany #India #China #population
May 21, 2025 at 10:08 PM
A strange coupling in the global demographic dance: Europe moves in sync with North America, while Asia aligns more closely with South America.👩❤️👨👯
#demography #fertility #US #Europe #Asia #Brasil #UK #Germany #India #China #population
#demography #fertility #US #Europe #Asia #Brasil #UK #Germany #India #China #population
Malta is losing its women. In just 10 years, the number of women per 100 men plunged from 100 to 89 — a unique demographic shift in Europe.
#demography #population #Malta #women #gender
#demography #population #Malta #women #gender
May 8, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Malta is losing its women. In just 10 years, the number of women per 100 men plunged from 100 to 89 — a unique demographic shift in Europe.
#demography #population #Malta #women #gender
#demography #population #Malta #women #gender
Hungary’s monthly fertility rate fell to 1.25 in March 2025, 0.1 lower than a year earlier and more than 0.2 lower than two years ago.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
#demography #fertility #Hungary
April 26, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Hungary’s monthly fertility rate fell to 1.25 in March 2025, 0.1 lower than a year earlier and more than 0.2 lower than two years ago.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
#demography #fertility #Hungary
Hungary’s population fell to 9.5 million by January 1, 2025. The 0.5% decline in 2024 marks the largest annual drop in the past decade.
#demography #population #Hungary
#demography #population #Hungary
April 17, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Hungary’s population fell to 9.5 million by January 1, 2025. The 0.5% decline in 2024 marks the largest annual drop in the past decade.
#demography #population #Hungary
#demography #population #Hungary
I had the chance to explain the unique reason behind Hungary’s population decline in a brief, accessible research summary featured by a top Hungarian online media outlet. 😀
#demogarphy #population #Hungary #fertility #aging
telex.hu/defacto/2025...
#demogarphy #population #Hungary #fertility #aging
telex.hu/defacto/2025...
April 17, 2025 at 8:07 AM
I had the chance to explain the unique reason behind Hungary’s population decline in a brief, accessible research summary featured by a top Hungarian online media outlet. 😀
#demogarphy #population #Hungary #fertility #aging
telex.hu/defacto/2025...
#demogarphy #population #Hungary #fertility #aging
telex.hu/defacto/2025...
No kids without moving out? Or why move out without kids? Fertility rates are lower in countries where more young adults (20–29) still live with their parents.
#demography #fertility #EU #Poland #Hungary #babies
#demography #fertility #EU #Poland #Hungary #babies
April 12, 2025 at 12:47 PM
No kids without moving out? Or why move out without kids? Fertility rates are lower in countries where more young adults (20–29) still live with their parents.
#demography #fertility #EU #Poland #Hungary #babies
#demography #fertility #EU #Poland #Hungary #babies
A guaranteed basic income can reduce fertility if it’s deducted from primary social benefits but leaves employment wages and earnings unchanged. An excellent new study has been published:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…#demographyh#fertilityt#babieses
link.springer.com/article/10.100…#demographyh#fertilityt#babieses
April 6, 2025 at 12:05 PM
A guaranteed basic income can reduce fertility if it’s deducted from primary social benefits but leaves employment wages and earnings unchanged. An excellent new study has been published:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…#demographyh#fertilityt#babieses
link.springer.com/article/10.100…#demographyh#fertilityt#babieses
Shocking rise in infant mortality in Hungary. In 2024, infant deaths per 1,000 live births more than doubled in Budapest - from 1.4 to 2.9. The reasons behind this alarming trend remain unclear.
#Demography #Hungary #Budapest
#Demography #Hungary #Budapest
April 3, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Shocking rise in infant mortality in Hungary. In 2024, infant deaths per 1,000 live births more than doubled in Budapest - from 1.4 to 2.9. The reasons behind this alarming trend remain unclear.
#Demography #Hungary #Budapest
#Demography #Hungary #Budapest
In Hungary, the number of births over the past 12 months fell by 9% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the annual average fertility rate dropped from 1.48 to 1.37.
#demography #fertility #population #Hungary
#demography #fertility #population #Hungary
March 28, 2025 at 8:11 PM
In Hungary, the number of births over the past 12 months fell by 9% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the annual average fertility rate dropped from 1.48 to 1.37.
#demography #fertility #population #Hungary
#demography #fertility #population #Hungary