Tomasz Rolbiecki
@tomaszrolbiecki.bsky.social
Security analyst and researcher. Focusing on VEOs in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily Lake Chad.
One short-term solution would've been digging trenches along the road (and other roads as well), but this would also mean surrendering massive areas of Borno to ISWAP.
Simply put, there are no easy solutions there.
Simply put, there are no easy solutions there.
November 27, 2024 at 10:20 PM
One short-term solution would've been digging trenches along the road (and other roads as well), but this would also mean surrendering massive areas of Borno to ISWAP.
Simply put, there are no easy solutions there.
Simply put, there are no easy solutions there.
The thing with Kareto is, it needs to be secured in order to give the Damasak road more security. The issues you outlined are surely valid, it's like the Damasak-Kukawa road but on a smaller scale. Smaller FOBs placed along the route likely wouldn't help too much either, I think.
November 27, 2024 at 10:20 PM
The thing with Kareto is, it needs to be secured in order to give the Damasak road more security. The issues you outlined are surely valid, it's like the Damasak-Kukawa road but on a smaller scale. Smaller FOBs placed along the route likely wouldn't help too much either, I think.
If there were any plans to secure eastern Yobe, there would've been way fewer problems with attacks in places like Geidam. The difference between Yobe and Borno appears to be that for Borno, BH is The Main Problem, it's just not as apparent for the Yobe State Government unfortunately.
November 27, 2024 at 10:13 PM
If there were any plans to secure eastern Yobe, there would've been way fewer problems with attacks in places like Geidam. The difference between Yobe and Borno appears to be that for Borno, BH is The Main Problem, it's just not as apparent for the Yobe State Government unfortunately.
Places like Mafa or Jilli would've been great as NA bases but they are too isolated and we know how attacks there ended. ISWAP accused locals of Mafa of calling for an NA base in their village, and Jilli used to be a base briefly in 2018.
November 27, 2024 at 9:34 PM
Places like Mafa or Jilli would've been great as NA bases but they are too isolated and we know how attacks there ended. ISWAP accused locals of Mafa of calling for an NA base in their village, and Jilli used to be a base briefly in 2018.
Fully agree with the last sentence - areas in eastern Yobe such as the eastern parts of Geidam and Tarmuwa LGAs (Ngelzarma perhaps too?) should be treated as areas where ISWAP has full freedom of movement.
November 27, 2024 at 9:34 PM
Fully agree with the last sentence - areas in eastern Yobe such as the eastern parts of Geidam and Tarmuwa LGAs (Ngelzarma perhaps too?) should be treated as areas where ISWAP has full freedom of movement.
You know I want to fully agree, but I would still advise not to have a false sense of security. Kukawa is obviously important, even more as a FOB for future operations in the Gudumbali-Garunda axis than as a human settlement but we know from the past that one failed attack won't just stop ISWAP.
November 27, 2024 at 9:28 PM
You know I want to fully agree, but I would still advise not to have a false sense of security. Kukawa is obviously important, even more as a FOB for future operations in the Gudumbali-Garunda axis than as a human settlement but we know from the past that one failed attack won't just stop ISWAP.
Earlier today, ISWAP claimed yesterday's attack in Bwalagyang, 8 km west of Chibok. The locals said it had occurred around 5-6 pm. ISWAP claimed killing two civilians (one was shown in a photo report, I am not posting that photo) and burned a church (photo 2), 15 civilian buildings, and a tricycle.
November 27, 2024 at 9:08 PM
Earlier today, ISWAP claimed yesterday's attack in Bwalagyang, 8 km west of Chibok. The locals said it had occurred around 5-6 pm. ISWAP claimed killing two civilians (one was shown in a photo report, I am not posting that photo) and burned a church (photo 2), 15 civilian buildings, and a tricycle.
Reposted by Tomasz Rolbiecki
ISWAP published a three-minute-long Kukawa attack video via A'maq News Agency. Some thoughts and images (not in chronological order) below.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
ISWAP published a three-minute-long Kukawa attack video via A'maq News Agency. Some thoughts and images (not in chronological order) below.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
From this angle (ISWAP is obviously framing the attack in a way favoring itself), it looks like NA had A LOT of luck, this could have ended way worse for the Nigerian troops.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
From this angle (ISWAP is obviously framing the attack in a way favoring itself), it looks like NA had A LOT of luck, this could have ended way worse for the Nigerian troops.
Three corpses can be seen (too graphic), confirming the NA side of the news more than the ISWAP side.
Also, an Otokar Cobra, a Bigfoot MRAP, another Bigfoot (the same one?) burning, and a Hilux, also burning.
Also, an Otokar Cobra, a Bigfoot MRAP, another Bigfoot (the same one?) burning, and a Hilux, also burning.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
Three corpses can be seen (too graphic), confirming the NA side of the news more than the ISWAP side.
Also, an Otokar Cobra, a Bigfoot MRAP, another Bigfoot (the same one?) burning, and a Hilux, also burning.
Also, an Otokar Cobra, a Bigfoot MRAP, another Bigfoot (the same one?) burning, and a Hilux, also burning.
Some Nigerian soldiers did flee at first, which, and I need to emphasise this, was a GOOD choice for them. The regrouping (and reinforcements) likely allowed them to repel the attack in the end, plus certainly it decreased fatality numbers.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
Some Nigerian soldiers did flee at first, which, and I need to emphasise this, was a GOOD choice for them. The regrouping (and reinforcements) likely allowed them to repel the attack in the end, plus certainly it decreased fatality numbers.
It's difficult to geolocate the explosion with certainty, but the first one seems to be matching one dark spot visible in the Sentinel-2 image on the eastern side.
If anyone wonders how the NA could capture so many motorbikes, here is the reason. This really was a major attack.
If anyone wonders how the NA could capture so many motorbikes, here is the reason. This really was a major attack.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
It's difficult to geolocate the explosion with certainty, but the first one seems to be matching one dark spot visible in the Sentinel-2 image on the eastern side.
If anyone wonders how the NA could capture so many motorbikes, here is the reason. This really was a major attack.
If anyone wonders how the NA could capture so many motorbikes, here is the reason. This really was a major attack.
ISWAP published a three-minute-long Kukawa attack video via A'maq News Agency. Some thoughts and images (not in chronological order) below.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
ISWAP published a three-minute-long Kukawa attack video via A'maq News Agency. Some thoughts and images (not in chronological order) below.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
Pro-NA accounts posted videos from a UAV showing a targeting of an ISWAP vehicle west of Kukawa.
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Source: x.com/DejiAdesogan...
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Source: x.com/DejiAdesogan...
November 27, 2024 at 6:20 PM
Pro-NA accounts posted videos from a UAV showing a targeting of an ISWAP vehicle west of Kukawa.
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Source: x.com/DejiAdesogan...
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Source: x.com/DejiAdesogan...
Someone is taking the piss now - first, they mention one SVBIED, then two, then four, now SEVEN?
It's like the ISWAP cubs (child soldiers) video - ISWAP published one and suddenly pro-NA accounts were warning of ISWAP child soldiers for the next two weeks before forgetting about it in the end.
It's like the ISWAP cubs (child soldiers) video - ISWAP published one and suddenly pro-NA accounts were warning of ISWAP child soldiers for the next two weeks before forgetting about it in the end.
November 27, 2024 at 7:21 AM
Someone is taking the piss now - first, they mention one SVBIED, then two, then four, now SEVEN?
It's like the ISWAP cubs (child soldiers) video - ISWAP published one and suddenly pro-NA accounts were warning of ISWAP child soldiers for the next two weeks before forgetting about it in the end.
It's like the ISWAP cubs (child soldiers) video - ISWAP published one and suddenly pro-NA accounts were warning of ISWAP child soldiers for the next two weeks before forgetting about it in the end.
Reposted by Tomasz Rolbiecki
I finally checked the Sentinel-2 imagery and a few things appeared:
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
November 26, 2024 at 10:18 PM
I finally checked the Sentinel-2 imagery and a few things appeared:
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
This also proves it was a very tough battle since the attackers at least temporarily managed to breach the security perimeter. Yes, the troops did prevail but without a proper response, the attack could have ended in a disaster for NA. ISWAP will certainly attack again, though likely somewhere else.
November 26, 2024 at 10:23 PM
This also proves it was a very tough battle since the attackers at least temporarily managed to breach the security perimeter. Yes, the troops did prevail but without a proper response, the attack could have ended in a disaster for NA. ISWAP will certainly attack again, though likely somewhere else.
I finally checked the Sentinel-2 imagery and a few things appeared:
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
November 26, 2024 at 10:18 PM
I finally checked the Sentinel-2 imagery and a few things appeared:
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
Reposted by Tomasz Rolbiecki
The things that are confirmed:
- 3 Nigerian soldiers and 1 civilian killed in a morning attack on 25 Nov 24 in Kukawa.
- ISWAP deployed at least two SVBIEDs.
- At least 10 ISWAP militants killed, dozens of motorbikes captured.
- ISWAP also captured some weapons.
- The attack was repelled.
- 3 Nigerian soldiers and 1 civilian killed in a morning attack on 25 Nov 24 in Kukawa.
- ISWAP deployed at least two SVBIEDs.
- At least 10 ISWAP militants killed, dozens of motorbikes captured.
- ISWAP also captured some weapons.
- The attack was repelled.
November 26, 2024 at 9:11 PM
The things that are confirmed:
- 3 Nigerian soldiers and 1 civilian killed in a morning attack on 25 Nov 24 in Kukawa.
- ISWAP deployed at least two SVBIEDs.
- At least 10 ISWAP militants killed, dozens of motorbikes captured.
- ISWAP also captured some weapons.
- The attack was repelled.
- 3 Nigerian soldiers and 1 civilian killed in a morning attack on 25 Nov 24 in Kukawa.
- ISWAP deployed at least two SVBIEDs.
- At least 10 ISWAP militants killed, dozens of motorbikes captured.
- ISWAP also captured some weapons.
- The attack was repelled.
The things that are confirmed:
- 3 Nigerian soldiers and 1 civilian killed in a morning attack on 25 Nov 24 in Kukawa.
- ISWAP deployed at least two SVBIEDs.
- At least 10 ISWAP militants killed, dozens of motorbikes captured.
- ISWAP also captured some weapons.
- The attack was repelled.
- 3 Nigerian soldiers and 1 civilian killed in a morning attack on 25 Nov 24 in Kukawa.
- ISWAP deployed at least two SVBIEDs.
- At least 10 ISWAP militants killed, dozens of motorbikes captured.
- ISWAP also captured some weapons.
- The attack was repelled.
November 26, 2024 at 9:11 PM
The things that are confirmed:
- 3 Nigerian soldiers and 1 civilian killed in a morning attack on 25 Nov 24 in Kukawa.
- ISWAP deployed at least two SVBIEDs.
- At least 10 ISWAP militants killed, dozens of motorbikes captured.
- ISWAP also captured some weapons.
- The attack was repelled.
- 3 Nigerian soldiers and 1 civilian killed in a morning attack on 25 Nov 24 in Kukawa.
- ISWAP deployed at least two SVBIEDs.
- At least 10 ISWAP militants killed, dozens of motorbikes captured.
- ISWAP also captured some weapons.
- The attack was repelled.
See the ironic twist: The pictures incorrectly used by Zagazola are used to deceive his audience that ISWAP is trying to deceive its audience by claiming they are from Kukawa when ISWAP had already used them to show the Kareto attack.
November 26, 2024 at 9:08 PM
See the ironic twist: The pictures incorrectly used by Zagazola are used to deceive his audience that ISWAP is trying to deceive its audience by claiming they are from Kukawa when ISWAP had already used them to show the Kareto attack.
Parts of the pro-NA reporting are completely false, in particular those accusing ISWAP of recycling photos from other attacks (see below). ISWAP has posted just one photo from Kukawa, and it is the A'maq photo. The pictures used by Zagazola are from Kareto, and ISWAP marked them as such.
November 26, 2024 at 9:08 PM
Parts of the pro-NA reporting are completely false, in particular those accusing ISWAP of recycling photos from other attacks (see below). ISWAP has posted just one photo from Kukawa, and it is the A'maq photo. The pictures used by Zagazola are from Kareto, and ISWAP marked them as such.
Now the comment: Both NA and ISWAP claims imply a heavy battle, although parts of each seem to contradict each other. It is possible that ISWAP was able to steal some weapons and lose others in the process. Until ISWAP can post pictures, it's impossible to verify its claims.
November 26, 2024 at 9:08 PM
Now the comment: Both NA and ISWAP claims imply a heavy battle, although parts of each seem to contradict each other. It is possible that ISWAP was able to steal some weapons and lose others in the process. Until ISWAP can post pictures, it's impossible to verify its claims.
Contrary to the pro-NA reporting, which mentioned one SVBIED (I see one post mentioning as many as four), ISWAP claims there were two SVBIEDs, driven by Abu 'Aisha al-Barnawi ("from Borno") and Abul-Siddiq al-Muhajir ("the Migrant," likely from another part of Nigeria).
November 26, 2024 at 9:08 PM
Contrary to the pro-NA reporting, which mentioned one SVBIED (I see one post mentioning as many as four), ISWAP claims there were two SVBIEDs, driven by Abu 'Aisha al-Barnawi ("from Borno") and Abul-Siddiq al-Muhajir ("the Migrant," likely from another part of Nigeria).
ISWAP claimed Kukawa attack - contents of the claim first, my thoughts last.
The group says it had killed and wounded 30 soldiers, destroyed/burned seven vehicles, captured weapons and equipment (see the A'maq photo), and even clashed with an intervening unit (I assume, from Cross Kauwa).
The group says it had killed and wounded 30 soldiers, destroyed/burned seven vehicles, captured weapons and equipment (see the A'maq photo), and even clashed with an intervening unit (I assume, from Cross Kauwa).
November 26, 2024 at 9:08 PM
ISWAP claimed Kukawa attack - contents of the claim first, my thoughts last.
The group says it had killed and wounded 30 soldiers, destroyed/burned seven vehicles, captured weapons and equipment (see the A'maq photo), and even clashed with an intervening unit (I assume, from Cross Kauwa).
The group says it had killed and wounded 30 soldiers, destroyed/burned seven vehicles, captured weapons and equipment (see the A'maq photo), and even clashed with an intervening unit (I assume, from Cross Kauwa).