Tomasz Rolbiecki
@tomaszrolbiecki.bsky.social
Security analyst and researcher. Focusing on VEOs in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily Lake Chad.
Earlier today, ISWAP claimed yesterday's attack in Bwalagyang, 8 km west of Chibok. The locals said it had occurred around 5-6 pm. ISWAP claimed killing two civilians (one was shown in a photo report, I am not posting that photo) and burned a church (photo 2), 15 civilian buildings, and a tricycle.
November 27, 2024 at 9:08 PM
Earlier today, ISWAP claimed yesterday's attack in Bwalagyang, 8 km west of Chibok. The locals said it had occurred around 5-6 pm. ISWAP claimed killing two civilians (one was shown in a photo report, I am not posting that photo) and burned a church (photo 2), 15 civilian buildings, and a tricycle.
Three corpses can be seen (too graphic), confirming the NA side of the news more than the ISWAP side.
Also, an Otokar Cobra, a Bigfoot MRAP, another Bigfoot (the same one?) burning, and a Hilux, also burning.
Also, an Otokar Cobra, a Bigfoot MRAP, another Bigfoot (the same one?) burning, and a Hilux, also burning.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
Three corpses can be seen (too graphic), confirming the NA side of the news more than the ISWAP side.
Also, an Otokar Cobra, a Bigfoot MRAP, another Bigfoot (the same one?) burning, and a Hilux, also burning.
Also, an Otokar Cobra, a Bigfoot MRAP, another Bigfoot (the same one?) burning, and a Hilux, also burning.
Some Nigerian soldiers did flee at first, which, and I need to emphasise this, was a GOOD choice for them. The regrouping (and reinforcements) likely allowed them to repel the attack in the end, plus certainly it decreased fatality numbers.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
Some Nigerian soldiers did flee at first, which, and I need to emphasise this, was a GOOD choice for them. The regrouping (and reinforcements) likely allowed them to repel the attack in the end, plus certainly it decreased fatality numbers.
It's difficult to geolocate the explosion with certainty, but the first one seems to be matching one dark spot visible in the Sentinel-2 image on the eastern side.
If anyone wonders how the NA could capture so many motorbikes, here is the reason. This really was a major attack.
If anyone wonders how the NA could capture so many motorbikes, here is the reason. This really was a major attack.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
It's difficult to geolocate the explosion with certainty, but the first one seems to be matching one dark spot visible in the Sentinel-2 image on the eastern side.
If anyone wonders how the NA could capture so many motorbikes, here is the reason. This really was a major attack.
If anyone wonders how the NA could capture so many motorbikes, here is the reason. This really was a major attack.
ISWAP published a three-minute-long Kukawa attack video via A'maq News Agency. Some thoughts and images (not in chronological order) below.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
November 27, 2024 at 8:55 PM
ISWAP published a three-minute-long Kukawa attack video via A'maq News Agency. Some thoughts and images (not in chronological order) below.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
First: The two SVBIEDs used by the group, shown before the attack, and the moments of detonations. Difficult to say if they were indeed successful.
Pro-NA accounts posted videos from a UAV showing a targeting of an ISWAP vehicle west of Kukawa.
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Source: x.com/DejiAdesogan...
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Source: x.com/DejiAdesogan...
November 27, 2024 at 6:20 PM
Pro-NA accounts posted videos from a UAV showing a targeting of an ISWAP vehicle west of Kukawa.
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Source: x.com/DejiAdesogan...
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Source: x.com/DejiAdesogan...
Someone is taking the piss now - first, they mention one SVBIED, then two, then four, now SEVEN?
It's like the ISWAP cubs (child soldiers) video - ISWAP published one and suddenly pro-NA accounts were warning of ISWAP child soldiers for the next two weeks before forgetting about it in the end.
It's like the ISWAP cubs (child soldiers) video - ISWAP published one and suddenly pro-NA accounts were warning of ISWAP child soldiers for the next two weeks before forgetting about it in the end.
November 27, 2024 at 7:21 AM
Someone is taking the piss now - first, they mention one SVBIED, then two, then four, now SEVEN?
It's like the ISWAP cubs (child soldiers) video - ISWAP published one and suddenly pro-NA accounts were warning of ISWAP child soldiers for the next two weeks before forgetting about it in the end.
It's like the ISWAP cubs (child soldiers) video - ISWAP published one and suddenly pro-NA accounts were warning of ISWAP child soldiers for the next two weeks before forgetting about it in the end.
I finally checked the Sentinel-2 imagery and a few things appeared:
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
November 26, 2024 at 10:18 PM
I finally checked the Sentinel-2 imagery and a few things appeared:
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
- Another line of trenches built after January 2023
- All ISWAP bodies' photos were inside the first (and some inside the second) line of fortifications
- Small burned spots, although it is unclear if any were caused by the SVBIEDs
Parts of the pro-NA reporting are completely false, in particular those accusing ISWAP of recycling photos from other attacks (see below). ISWAP has posted just one photo from Kukawa, and it is the A'maq photo. The pictures used by Zagazola are from Kareto, and ISWAP marked them as such.
November 26, 2024 at 9:08 PM
Parts of the pro-NA reporting are completely false, in particular those accusing ISWAP of recycling photos from other attacks (see below). ISWAP has posted just one photo from Kukawa, and it is the A'maq photo. The pictures used by Zagazola are from Kareto, and ISWAP marked them as such.
ISWAP claimed Kukawa attack - contents of the claim first, my thoughts last.
The group says it had killed and wounded 30 soldiers, destroyed/burned seven vehicles, captured weapons and equipment (see the A'maq photo), and even clashed with an intervening unit (I assume, from Cross Kauwa).
The group says it had killed and wounded 30 soldiers, destroyed/burned seven vehicles, captured weapons and equipment (see the A'maq photo), and even clashed with an intervening unit (I assume, from Cross Kauwa).
November 26, 2024 at 9:08 PM
ISWAP claimed Kukawa attack - contents of the claim first, my thoughts last.
The group says it had killed and wounded 30 soldiers, destroyed/burned seven vehicles, captured weapons and equipment (see the A'maq photo), and even clashed with an intervening unit (I assume, from Cross Kauwa).
The group says it had killed and wounded 30 soldiers, destroyed/burned seven vehicles, captured weapons and equipment (see the A'maq photo), and even clashed with an intervening unit (I assume, from Cross Kauwa).
3. An attack on NA in Kukareta, in Yobe State, injuring several soldiers and allegedly burning parts of a local military site.
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
November 25, 2024 at 9:54 PM
3. An attack on NA in Kukareta, in Yobe State, injuring several soldiers and allegedly burning parts of a local military site.
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Three more claims:
1. An armed clash with vigilantes near Pulka and the alleged killing of two of them.
2. An assassination of a Christian civilian in Hiji/Hizhi ("هيجي") yesterday.
Most likely location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria... (if correct, it is in Hawul LGA - concerning)
1. An armed clash with vigilantes near Pulka and the alleged killing of two of them.
2. An assassination of a Christian civilian in Hiji/Hizhi ("هيجي") yesterday.
Most likely location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria... (if correct, it is in Hawul LGA - concerning)
November 25, 2024 at 9:54 PM
Three more claims:
1. An armed clash with vigilantes near Pulka and the alleged killing of two of them.
2. An assassination of a Christian civilian in Hiji/Hizhi ("هيجي") yesterday.
Most likely location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria... (if correct, it is in Hawul LGA - concerning)
1. An armed clash with vigilantes near Pulka and the alleged killing of two of them.
2. An assassination of a Christian civilian in Hiji/Hizhi ("هيجي") yesterday.
Most likely location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria... (if correct, it is in Hawul LGA - concerning)
In the last 24 hours, ISWAP claimed seven more attacks, showing significant activity (I wonder how sustained it will be).
On Wednesday, on the Damboa-Wajiroko road, an IED allegedly damaged an armored vehicle.
That same day, on the Wajiroko-Sabon Gari road, an IED allegedly damaged a tank (!).
On Wednesday, on the Damboa-Wajiroko road, an IED allegedly damaged an armored vehicle.
That same day, on the Wajiroko-Sabon Gari road, an IED allegedly damaged a tank (!).
November 25, 2024 at 9:43 PM
In the last 24 hours, ISWAP claimed seven more attacks, showing significant activity (I wonder how sustained it will be).
On Wednesday, on the Damboa-Wajiroko road, an IED allegedly damaged an armored vehicle.
That same day, on the Wajiroko-Sabon Gari road, an IED allegedly damaged a tank (!).
On Wednesday, on the Damboa-Wajiroko road, an IED allegedly damaged an armored vehicle.
That same day, on the Wajiroko-Sabon Gari road, an IED allegedly damaged a tank (!).
Correction: Reportedly, at least ten corpses of the attacking ISWAP force were recovered. Photos are circulating online but are too graphic to be posted here. If the coordinates visible in these pictures are correct, it would mean that the attack focused on the western entrance to Kukawa.
November 25, 2024 at 9:15 PM
Correction: Reportedly, at least ten corpses of the attacking ISWAP force were recovered. Photos are circulating online but are too graphic to be posted here. If the coordinates visible in these pictures are correct, it would mean that the attack focused on the western entrance to Kukawa.
On 23 Nov 24, NAF launched airstrikes targeting ISWAP in Jubillaram, in Lake Chad (north of Kirenawa), claiming the militants living there were responsible for the Kareto attack.
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
November 25, 2024 at 2:32 PM
On 23 Nov 24, NAF launched airstrikes targeting ISWAP in Jubillaram, in Lake Chad (north of Kirenawa), claiming the militants living there were responsible for the Kareto attack.
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Location: satellites.pro/Nigeria_map#...
Yesterday evening, ISWAP claimed an attack on the village of Tarfa, in Biu LGA (also close to Hawul LGA) and the burning of several civilian houses, framed as an attack on Christians. This attack took place on Friday. No info was available for either attack.
Location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria...
Location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria...
November 24, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Yesterday evening, ISWAP claimed an attack on the village of Tarfa, in Biu LGA (also close to Hawul LGA) and the burning of several civilian houses, framed as an attack on Christians. This attack took place on Friday. No info was available for either attack.
Location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria...
Location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria...
Apart from this report, ISWAP claimed two more attacks.
On Thursday, the group reported an armed clash with the military patrol in Banki (said to have taken place on Tuesday) and the killing and wounding of 3 soldiers.
On Thursday, the group reported an armed clash with the military patrol in Banki (said to have taken place on Tuesday) and the killing and wounding of 3 soldiers.
November 24, 2024 at 12:49 PM
Apart from this report, ISWAP claimed two more attacks.
On Thursday, the group reported an armed clash with the military patrol in Banki (said to have taken place on Tuesday) and the killing and wounding of 3 soldiers.
On Thursday, the group reported an armed clash with the military patrol in Banki (said to have taken place on Tuesday) and the killing and wounding of 3 soldiers.
Furthermore, the group also claimed that it took more than 90 minutes for the military reinforcements to come (most likely from Damasak) and that no ISWAP militant was killed in the attack. Al-Naba' also posted a picture from the moment right after the SVBIED attack in Kareto.
November 24, 2024 at 12:39 PM
Furthermore, the group also claimed that it took more than 90 minutes for the military reinforcements to come (most likely from Damasak) and that no ISWAP militant was killed in the attack. Al-Naba' also posted a picture from the moment right after the SVBIED attack in Kareto.
One attack was claimed by ISWAP yesterday evening, targeting a militia patrol in Njilang, in Chibok LGA, on Monday. The group also reported seizing seven motorbikes and some ammunition, both of which were also confirmed in a short photo report.
Location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria...
Location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria...
November 20, 2024 at 10:03 PM
One attack was claimed by ISWAP yesterday evening, targeting a militia patrol in Njilang, in Chibok LGA, on Monday. The group also reported seizing seven motorbikes and some ammunition, both of which were also confirmed in a short photo report.
Location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria...
Location: satellites.pro/plan/Nigeria...
"Praise be to God who imposed jihad with the heart, hand and tongue, and made it one of the pillars of Islam and faith, and granted those who perform it the highest chambers in Paradise."
A standard call for jihad, in my opinion.
A standard call for jihad, in my opinion.
November 20, 2024 at 6:06 PM
"Praise be to God who imposed jihad with the heart, hand and tongue, and made it one of the pillars of Islam and faith, and granted those who perform it the highest chambers in Paradise."
A standard call for jihad, in my opinion.
A standard call for jihad, in my opinion.
Even more direct is the warning at the end: "The Islamic State in Lake Chad will remain, God willing, under the leadership of Imam Abu Umaymah, may God protect him, whether you like it or not, you infidels, hypocrites, and Murji’ah."
Abu Umaymah is Bakura himself.
Abu Umaymah is Bakura himself.
November 20, 2024 at 6:06 PM
Even more direct is the warning at the end: "The Islamic State in Lake Chad will remain, God willing, under the leadership of Imam Abu Umaymah, may God protect him, whether you like it or not, you infidels, hypocrites, and Murji’ah."
Abu Umaymah is Bakura himself.
Abu Umaymah is Bakura himself.
Unsurprisingly, the video is in low quality, in addition to some strange editing. On the other hand, it is quite direct, showing significant amounts of weapons and ammunition captured, as well as at least six corpses of killed Chadian soldiers.
November 20, 2024 at 6:06 PM
Unsurprisingly, the video is in low quality, in addition to some strange editing. On the other hand, it is quite direct, showing significant amounts of weapons and ammunition captured, as well as at least six corpses of killed Chadian soldiers.
Notably, the video uses the old logo from the Shekau era and the name Jama'at Ahl as-Sunnah lil-Dawah wal-Jihad "in West Africa." The group later refers to itself as "The Islamic State in Lake Chad."
November 20, 2024 at 6:06 PM
Notably, the video uses the old logo from the Shekau era and the name Jama'at Ahl as-Sunnah lil-Dawah wal-Jihad "in West Africa." The group later refers to itself as "The Islamic State in Lake Chad."
Earlier this month, in a random group I am lurking in, I stumbled across the JAS video from the Barkaram attack. It is quite short, just over four minutes long, but it has some interesting moments.
Left: A brief shot recorded during the attack.
Right: Some of the weapons captured by JAS.
Left: A brief shot recorded during the attack.
Right: Some of the weapons captured by JAS.
November 20, 2024 at 6:06 PM
Earlier this month, in a random group I am lurking in, I stumbled across the JAS video from the Barkaram attack. It is quite short, just over four minutes long, but it has some interesting moments.
Left: A brief shot recorded during the attack.
Right: Some of the weapons captured by JAS.
Left: A brief shot recorded during the attack.
Right: Some of the weapons captured by JAS.
In addition to this, four pickups with machine guns were confirmed captured while one MRAP, one pickup, two excavators, and two other vehicles were destroyed. I managed to find a short (and slightly graphic) video online showing the aftermath of the assault.
November 18, 2024 at 9:11 PM
In addition to this, four pickups with machine guns were confirmed captured while one MRAP, one pickup, two excavators, and two other vehicles were destroyed. I managed to find a short (and slightly graphic) video online showing the aftermath of the assault.