Thomas (he/him)
@thomas--72.bsky.social
Median homebuyer is 59. Nobody who bought in the cheap lending era is giving up that rate. So only Boomers stepping down are selling. So supply is low, so prices are high, so only Boomers can afford to buy. We're stuck waiting for a generational exit.
November 14, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Median homebuyer is 59. Nobody who bought in the cheap lending era is giving up that rate. So only Boomers stepping down are selling. So supply is low, so prices are high, so only Boomers can afford to buy. We're stuck waiting for a generational exit.
G. Elliot Morris examined party favorability to square the circle of low Dem favorability and the signs of election performance. This far out from elections, party favorability doesn't correlate; in midterms specifically, it's actually a negative correlation. 1/
July 29, 2025 at 1:31 PM
G. Elliot Morris examined party favorability to square the circle of low Dem favorability and the signs of election performance. This far out from elections, party favorability doesn't correlate; in midterms specifically, it's actually a negative correlation. 1/
Notwithstanding the MAGA influencer revolt over Epstein, Gallup shows Republicans stand behind Trump like always. Dems down to 2%. Independents fell from almost 50 to 29%! Which drives an overall 37%, barely above his post-Jan 6 lows.
July 24, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Notwithstanding the MAGA influencer revolt over Epstein, Gallup shows Republicans stand behind Trump like always. Dems down to 2%. Independents fell from almost 50 to 29%! Which drives an overall 37%, barely above his post-Jan 6 lows.
The cure for the contrarian political trend piece is quantitative perspective. It's what you think: he's less underwater with older, white, male voters with less formal education, and he's more underwater with everyone else.
July 24, 2025 at 12:44 PM
The cure for the contrarian political trend piece is quantitative perspective. It's what you think: he's less underwater with older, white, male voters with less formal education, and he's more underwater with everyone else.
No other President since polling has been underwater this soon after taking office. He's done it twice.
July 24, 2025 at 12:33 PM
No other President since polling has been underwater this soon after taking office. He's done it twice.
This is the second poll I've seen to this effect. I saw a lot of trend pieces placed by GOP consultants about how the Dems had lost Gen Z ... no. Gen Z isn't going to vote for the Schumerite party. But they won't vote for the Trump party either.
July 23, 2025 at 1:22 PM
This is the second poll I've seen to this effect. I saw a lot of trend pieces placed by GOP consultants about how the Dems had lost Gen Z ... no. Gen Z isn't going to vote for the Schumerite party. But they won't vote for the Trump party either.
Any economist will tell you that when a knowledgeable buyer and seller exchange cash for goods, the exchange is neutral. The exchange of value is equal. Trump cannot accept the idea of an even exchange, so he has a delusional idee fixe that somehow, when someone sells you something, you lose.
May 8, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Any economist will tell you that when a knowledgeable buyer and seller exchange cash for goods, the exchange is neutral. The exchange of value is equal. Trump cannot accept the idea of an even exchange, so he has a delusional idee fixe that somehow, when someone sells you something, you lose.
Both the House and the Senate recognize that vulnerable House members are not going to make cuts that lose them their jobs. They either means borrowing the tax cuts (which the deficit hawks won't swallow) or reducing the tax cuts. Keep fighting, it's working.
May 7, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Both the House and the Senate recognize that vulnerable House members are not going to make cuts that lose them their jobs. They either means borrowing the tax cuts (which the deficit hawks won't swallow) or reducing the tax cuts. Keep fighting, it's working.
In any discussion of cost of living, this is the biggest wedge of the pie. We're in a national housing crisis. In 1967, houses were about 4x income. Last year, home prices were 6x income. High COL areas are worse. The Bay Area it's about 15x.
April 29, 2025 at 1:09 PM
In any discussion of cost of living, this is the biggest wedge of the pie. We're in a national housing crisis. In 1967, houses were about 4x income. Last year, home prices were 6x income. High COL areas are worse. The Bay Area it's about 15x.
They say the first step to dealing with your problem is admitting you have one. But Trump never admits error.
April 29, 2025 at 11:56 AM
They say the first step to dealing with your problem is admitting you have one. But Trump never admits error.
The truth behind the low approval ratings is that his strong support is 23% of his low-forties approval, but of his high fifties disapproval? 45% is fuck you, worst President ever, get impeached and go to prison you treasonous Orange felon.
April 29, 2025 at 11:41 AM
The truth behind the low approval ratings is that his strong support is 23% of his low-forties approval, but of his high fifties disapproval? 45% is fuck you, worst President ever, get impeached and go to prison you treasonous Orange felon.
Hmmm. I think he might be upset about his public polling.
April 28, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Hmmm. I think he might be upset about his public polling.
So some folks are describing this as things "all going wrong" at the "liberation day" tariff announcement. Mentally lay a ruler on those lines. Do they look like the slope kinks? Or is this basically a linear progression for Captain Chaos?
April 28, 2025 at 10:59 AM
So some folks are describing this as things "all going wrong" at the "liberation day" tariff announcement. Mentally lay a ruler on those lines. Do they look like the slope kinks? Or is this basically a linear progression for Captain Chaos?
Trump has slid with every age group, but has absolutely collapsed with people under 30.
April 25, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Trump has slid with every age group, but has absolutely collapsed with people under 30.
Arom Alan Abramowitz. This is a simple linear regression, it's so blunt I can't even say it's wrong -- it's simply one relationship, without taking anything individual into account. A few things about this: 1/
April 24, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Arom Alan Abramowitz. This is a simple linear regression, it's so blunt I can't even say it's wrong -- it's simply one relationship, without taking anything individual into account. A few things about this: 1/
So he's approximately as unpopular as the first time, which marks the extreme of unpopularity in a first year in office, since approval polling has been kept.
April 23, 2025 at 7:59 PM
So he's approximately as unpopular as the first time, which marks the extreme of unpopularity in a first year in office, since approval polling has been kept.
Fools like Newsom don't want to talk about the rule of law. But shining a light on the lawless atrocities of his war on non-white immigrants has dragged Trump near breakeven on his single strongest issue. Ignore the triangulators! Keep fighting, it's working.
April 23, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Fools like Newsom don't want to talk about the rule of law. But shining a light on the lawless atrocities of his war on non-white immigrants has dragged Trump near breakeven on his single strongest issue. Ignore the triangulators! Keep fighting, it's working.
This is about power. If Trump wanted to pull a Jackson and tell SCOTUS to go kick rocks, he'd need the public behind him. He does not have it.
April 23, 2025 at 5:38 PM
This is about power. If Trump wanted to pull a Jackson and tell SCOTUS to go kick rocks, he'd need the public behind him. He does not have it.
Pew marks the far end of the range, but it's not an outlier. It's close to some others. Trump is now on average firmly in the lower forties.
April 23, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Pew marks the far end of the range, but it's not an outlier. It's close to some others. Trump is now on average firmly in the lower forties.
The FT published a tryptich of charts. In other crises, fixed income was the safe port in the storm. In other crises, the dollar is strong, allowing American consumers to buy more goods and services. In this self-inflicted crisis, both moved the other way.
April 23, 2025 at 1:48 PM
The FT published a tryptich of charts. In other crises, fixed income was the safe port in the storm. In other crises, the dollar is strong, allowing American consumers to buy more goods and services. In this self-inflicted crisis, both moved the other way.
1. the swing from 2024 is pretty uniform, a little more for low income folks. 2. Partisanship is a hell of a drug.
April 22, 2025 at 8:11 PM
1. the swing from 2024 is pretty uniform, a little more for low income folks. 2. Partisanship is a hell of a drug.
Anyone who thinks the politics of the rule of law hurt Dems is wrong. There is very, very broad agreement that the President has to obey the courts.
April 22, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Anyone who thinks the politics of the rule of law hurt Dems is wrong. There is very, very broad agreement that the President has to obey the courts.