The Red Count
@theredcount.bsky.social
Politics, history, finance and economics.
Mapping Germany
Mapping Germany
What variables correlate with AfD support at the EU elections in NRW in 2024?
Ex. of Strongest neg. correlations are:
Income taxes paid per person
% female population in regular employment
flats with 1 room.
Ex. of strongest pos. correlation:
Death rate
Fertility rate
Rel. % pop below 10.
Ex. of Strongest neg. correlations are:
Income taxes paid per person
% female population in regular employment
flats with 1 room.
Ex. of strongest pos. correlation:
Death rate
Fertility rate
Rel. % pop below 10.
July 9, 2025 at 9:17 PM
What variables correlate with AfD support at the EU elections in NRW in 2024?
Ex. of Strongest neg. correlations are:
Income taxes paid per person
% female population in regular employment
flats with 1 room.
Ex. of strongest pos. correlation:
Death rate
Fertility rate
Rel. % pop below 10.
Ex. of Strongest neg. correlations are:
Income taxes paid per person
% female population in regular employment
flats with 1 room.
Ex. of strongest pos. correlation:
Death rate
Fertility rate
Rel. % pop below 10.
February 25, 2025 at 2:12 PM
If the CDU wants to understand its performance in East Germany, there is quite a lot of regional variation to exploit. See here in Thuringia.
There are municipalities, typically quite small, where the AfD has a 2/3 majority.
(Be aware of the floating scale).
There are municipalities, typically quite small, where the AfD has a 2/3 majority.
(Be aware of the floating scale).
February 25, 2025 at 2:10 PM
If the CDU wants to understand its performance in East Germany, there is quite a lot of regional variation to exploit. See here in Thuringia.
There are municipalities, typically quite small, where the AfD has a 2/3 majority.
(Be aware of the floating scale).
There are municipalities, typically quite small, where the AfD has a 2/3 majority.
(Be aware of the floating scale).
Berlin ist insgesamt ein Problem für die Grünen. Sie können gerade noch Mitte halten.
February 23, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Berlin ist insgesamt ein Problem für die Grünen. Sie können gerade noch Mitte halten.
Mind. 6 Direktmandate ...
February 23, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Mind. 6 Direktmandate ...
Aktuell sind auch locker mind. 6 Direktmandate insgesamt drin:
February 23, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Aktuell sind auch locker mind. 6 Direktmandate insgesamt drin:
Ich habs ja noch gesehen, deswegen die Korrektur. Sorry. Dafür habe ich Berlin-Mitte auch übersehen. Hier das Update:
February 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Ich habs ja noch gesehen, deswegen die Korrektur. Sorry. Dafür habe ich Berlin-Mitte auch übersehen. Hier das Update:
6-7 is the correct number:
February 23, 2025 at 7:24 PM
6-7 is the correct number:
February 23, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Die Linke is also on track to win 5-7 Direktmandate:
February 23, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Die Linke is also on track to win 5-7 Direktmandate:
February 23, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Die Linke has limited support in the urban areas of West Germany but has almost no support in the rural areas. In East Germany the support is overall stronger, especially in the urban areas of East Germany (8/8).
November 12, 2024 at 7:16 PM
Die Linke has limited support in the urban areas of West Germany but has almost no support in the rural areas. In East Germany the support is overall stronger, especially in the urban areas of East Germany (8/8).
The strongest support for the FDP can be found in selected areas in or around Düsseldorf, Cologne,
Hamburg and Frankfurt am Main. Additionally, there is strong support in a limited number of areas in BW where the FDP does not run locally but has a cooperation with a local party (7/8).
Hamburg and Frankfurt am Main. Additionally, there is strong support in a limited number of areas in BW where the FDP does not run locally but has a cooperation with a local party (7/8).
November 12, 2024 at 7:15 PM
The strongest support for the FDP can be found in selected areas in or around Düsseldorf, Cologne,
Hamburg and Frankfurt am Main. Additionally, there is strong support in a limited number of areas in BW where the FDP does not run locally but has a cooperation with a local party (7/8).
Hamburg and Frankfurt am Main. Additionally, there is strong support in a limited number of areas in BW where the FDP does not run locally but has a cooperation with a local party (7/8).
The Wagenknecht party (BSW) has support in a limited number of areas in the big cities in West Germany, otherwise its support is primarily found in East Germany and in the Saarland. The lowest support can be found in Bavaria (6/8).
November 12, 2024 at 7:14 PM
The Wagenknecht party (BSW) has support in a limited number of areas in the big cities in West Germany, otherwise its support is primarily found in East Germany and in the Saarland. The lowest support can be found in Bavaria (6/8).
The Green party has the strongest urban/rural divide. It is the strongest party in the urban core of the big cities. Otherwise its support can be used to localize Germany’s university towns. In East Germany the support is even more strongly concentrated in the cities than in the West (5/8).
November 12, 2024 at 7:13 PM
The Green party has the strongest urban/rural divide. It is the strongest party in the urban core of the big cities. Otherwise its support can be used to localize Germany’s university towns. In East Germany the support is even more strongly concentrated in the cities than in the West (5/8).
SPD support is strongest in Lower Saxony (except for the western parts), northern Hesse, the Ruhr area, Eastern Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. The support is a lot lower in South Germany and East Germany (except for Brandenburg and parts of the north-east) (4/8).
November 12, 2024 at 7:13 PM
SPD support is strongest in Lower Saxony (except for the western parts), northern Hesse, the Ruhr area, Eastern Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. The support is a lot lower in South Germany and East Germany (except for Brandenburg and parts of the north-east) (4/8).
The AfD has the strongest support in East Germany but a few strongholds in the West exist. These are typically single municipalities. Larger areas are Salzgitter, East/South-East Hesse, the Czech-Bavarian border area, Worms, Kaiserslautern and a ring around Stuttgart (3/8).
November 12, 2024 at 7:12 PM
The AfD has the strongest support in East Germany but a few strongholds in the West exist. These are typically single municipalities. Larger areas are Salzgitter, East/South-East Hesse, the Czech-Bavarian border area, Worms, Kaiserslautern and a ring around Stuttgart (3/8).
While the CSU support is relatively uniform across all of rural Bavaria, the CDU support in rural areas varies more. A few strongholds stand out: The western part of Lower Saxony, the area around Fulda in Hesse, parts of Baden in BW and Sauerland in NRW (where Friedrich Merz is from) (2/8).
November 12, 2024 at 7:11 PM
While the CSU support is relatively uniform across all of rural Bavaria, the CDU support in rural areas varies more. A few strongholds stand out: The western part of Lower Saxony, the area around Fulda in Hesse, parts of Baden in BW and Sauerland in NRW (where Friedrich Merz is from) (2/8).
Exactly, plus Thuringia and Saxony are the most AfD supporting places in Germany. This is from the EU election:
September 3, 2024 at 5:08 PM
Exactly, plus Thuringia and Saxony are the most AfD supporting places in Germany. This is from the EU election:
Yep, biggest predictor variable are emigration or population decline.
The visible infrastructure in many areas is actually in a better state than small town/ rural west Germany (minus Bayern/BaWü).
For a distribution of AfD support at the euro election at municipality level see (different scales):
The visible infrastructure in many areas is actually in a better state than small town/ rural west Germany (minus Bayern/BaWü).
For a distribution of AfD support at the euro election at municipality level see (different scales):
August 30, 2024 at 9:12 AM
Yep, biggest predictor variable are emigration or population decline.
The visible infrastructure in many areas is actually in a better state than small town/ rural west Germany (minus Bayern/BaWü).
For a distribution of AfD support at the euro election at municipality level see (different scales):
The visible infrastructure in many areas is actually in a better state than small town/ rural west Germany (minus Bayern/BaWü).
For a distribution of AfD support at the euro election at municipality level see (different scales):
AfD Unterstützung auf Gemeindeebene.
(unterschiedliche Skalen beachten).
(unterschiedliche Skalen beachten).
June 21, 2024 at 10:03 AM
AfD Unterstützung auf Gemeindeebene.
(unterschiedliche Skalen beachten).
(unterschiedliche Skalen beachten).
No the pattern is still there. They will win some eastern states in autumn. But the results of the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse last year are in many aspects more problematic.
This is from the 2021 federal election:
This is from the 2021 federal election:
June 9, 2024 at 6:09 PM
No the pattern is still there. They will win some eastern states in autumn. But the results of the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse last year are in many aspects more problematic.
This is from the 2021 federal election:
This is from the 2021 federal election: